AVAXUSD Re-testing the 1D MA50. Breakout and rejection scenarios

Avalanche (AVAXUSD) is recovering from the recent rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) last week. That would be the third attempt that close to the MA50 in 3 weeks and with the 1D LMACD on a strong rise, it appears it could be the decisive one to break it.

In fact the same LMACD sequence was last spotted in July 2021, a year ago, when the price eventually broke above the 1D MA50 and initiated an extremely strong rally. Now with the general crypto market attempting to find a bottom on this Bear Cycle, such a rally would be difficult to re-create yet but the Fibonacci retracement levels within this long-term Channel Up can help us set some short/ medium-term targets leading eventually to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).

On the downside, if the price gets rejected again and breaks below the Higher Lows trend-line (Fib 0.0), it can go for a Bearish extreme near the -0.236 Fib, similar to the Bullish extreme at 1.236 Fib that shaped the top of the market on November 22 2021.


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