Trend reversal or Extension formation?

The 23% retracement on the red fibonacci at the moment looks pretty weak, a continuation could occur towards 50%-red, a long opportunity of 40+ pips. There is however a major resistance area at the 50% where an extension can form and continue the downtrend, on the other hand a price move past the 50%-red could mean a trend reversal, I can see price moving past .618-red towards .786 a 100 pips prices move from the 23%-red, a potential retest at 50% on the white fibonacci.