H1 ABCD appears fragile
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
May’s extension, together with June’s follow-through, has supply at 0.7029/0.6664 echoing a vulnerable tone in early July, particularly as an intersecting long-term trendline resistance (1.0582) shows signs of giving way.
Regarding the market’s primary trend, a series of lower lows and lower highs have been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
AUD/USD ousted resistance at 0.6931 Monday, with Wednesday elevating higher from the base as support.
The break to the upside shines focus on two trendline resistances close by (prior supports – 0.6744/0.6671); a violation here unmasks another resistance at 0.7197.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Since June 10, H4 has been in the process of establishing a (bullish) pennant pattern between 0.7064/0.6776, generally considered a continuation pattern among chart pattern traders.
As you can see, last week had price penetrate the upper boundary of the aforesaid pennant, unearthing a buy signal.
In light of daily price establishing support off 0.6931, H4 supply at 0.7058/0.7029 remains featured as the next obstacle on this timeframe.
H1 timeframe:
Renewed interest to the upside Wednesday, following a revisit to local demand at 0.6939/0.6952 (joins with the 0.6950 support and 100-period simple moving average), observed H1 complete a local ABCD correction at 0.6982, ahead of supply at 0.7003/0.6987 (houses 0.70 within its upper limits).
Candlestick traders will also acknowledge a recent shooting star pattern, generally considered a bearish reversal formation at peaks.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly price appears to be squeezing sellers out of the market as daily price holds 0.6931 as support. This, coupled with room to advance on the H4 to supply at 0.7058/0.7029, may see the H1 ABCD correction struggle to chalk up anything meaningful to the downside.
The most ABCD sellers will likely receive is the 38.2% Fib level at 0.6962 (of legs A/D), widely considered as an initial take-profit target.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
May’s extension, together with June’s follow-through, has supply at 0.7029/0.6664 echoing a vulnerable tone in early July, particularly as an intersecting long-term trendline resistance (1.0582) shows signs of giving way.
Regarding the market’s primary trend, a series of lower lows and lower highs have been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
AUD/USD ousted resistance at 0.6931 Monday, with Wednesday elevating higher from the base as support.
The break to the upside shines focus on two trendline resistances close by (prior supports – 0.6744/0.6671); a violation here unmasks another resistance at 0.7197.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Since June 10, H4 has been in the process of establishing a (bullish) pennant pattern between 0.7064/0.6776, generally considered a continuation pattern among chart pattern traders.
As you can see, last week had price penetrate the upper boundary of the aforesaid pennant, unearthing a buy signal.
In light of daily price establishing support off 0.6931, H4 supply at 0.7058/0.7029 remains featured as the next obstacle on this timeframe.
H1 timeframe:
Renewed interest to the upside Wednesday, following a revisit to local demand at 0.6939/0.6952 (joins with the 0.6950 support and 100-period simple moving average), observed H1 complete a local ABCD correction at 0.6982, ahead of supply at 0.7003/0.6987 (houses 0.70 within its upper limits).
Candlestick traders will also acknowledge a recent shooting star pattern, generally considered a bearish reversal formation at peaks.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly price appears to be squeezing sellers out of the market as daily price holds 0.6931 as support. This, coupled with room to advance on the H4 to supply at 0.7058/0.7029, may see the H1 ABCD correction struggle to chalk up anything meaningful to the downside.
The most ABCD sellers will likely receive is the 38.2% Fib level at 0.6962 (of legs A/D), widely considered as an initial take-profit target.
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