DECISIONS-WHERE TO NEXT FOR AUD/CHF? CONTRIBUTIONS APPRECIATED!

1 de ago. de 2017

So I've been quite dovish about publishing ideas as I am new/green to publishing and still growing in the trading arena.

I've been watching AUDCHF since June and thanks to the education I have been receiving lately, my analysis of this pair has been quite spot on, so I'm so happy I have found such good teachers and I am seeing signs of grasping the knowledge they have been passing on. Education - Get some :).
I am essentially short to medium term bullish this pair in light of the new structure highs and higher lows it has established over the last 2 months. However, price action has come to a decision point.

Price action has completed the Inverse H & S to measured target (Navy Blue arrows) and has now come into significant resistance at about 7779.5 (21 Feb 2017-Trading View Daily Chart).
Despite the positive/neutral outcome of the RBA rate decision and upbeat statement at 5:30 am GMT, price action during today's session has pulled back from the high of the day at 7775.2, which supports in this short time (we still have the rest of the week to go) my expectation that price action may consolidate within the above mentioned resistance level, and resistance turned support at 7719.3 (20 Mar 2017) (red arrows).
I anticipate that any deeper retracement/consolidation should be limited to supports at 76222 (17 April 2017)(orange arrows), where confluence has been identified,:

- 50% Retracement of Low-7550.8 (20 July 2017), High 7775.2 (1 Aug 2017) = 7623.7,
- 23.6% Retracement of Low of Head - 7145.1 (2 Feb 2017), High 7775.2 (1 Aug 2017) = 7626.5
- 227.2% Fib Inversion of Right Shoulder Low-7272.5 (27 Jun 2017), Neckline of Right Shoulder-7428.0 (16 Jun 2017), Back to Right Shoulder = 7625.8

and 7479.4 (most recent structure low) which falls on the rising trend line.

With news due out until next week (Friday 11th Aug 2017-Thank you Trading View) that could influence this pair, I anticipate that price action may continue this consolidation phase until then at which time a decision may be made on direction following RBA House Economics Committee Meeting on 11 Aug.
As my bias is strongly Bullish, I would be looking for a breakout above resistance at 7779.5 at which point sky's the limit for AUDCHF. With no significant resistance in sight, price has the potential to rally to between 8330.2 (13 Jan 2015) and 8430.0 (7 Oct 2014) which are the next identified significant structure levels.

I decided to share this because of the success have I had with my analysis on the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern which I was able to get involved in right from the break out (It was such a dangled carrot, met all the rules, excellent risk reward, high probability, all the stars are aligned opportunity) and watched this pair rally to the measured completion target early Friday morning (was actually doing analysis and back testing when completion happened-so still super chuffed, haven't come down yet).

Unfortunately, I preempted the market in the early stages (saw a potential harmonic pattern forming at about the Outside Return/Higher Low) and closed the position early for a 62+ pip win (YAY) but with targets hit, I left 247+ pips on the table (sad face). Lessons learned, don't preempt the market, moving forward :).

As such, I would be most grateful for feedback and contributions. I am truly appreciating how lonely this trading game can be and how important education, feedback and community support is to growing success and would really value the community's contributions. Can't let a bit of success go to the head now, so close to the eureka moment.

Thanks all (and to my teachers most especially-Muchos Gracias).

2 de ago. de 2017

Nota

Following my long winded analysis yesterday, I neglected to point out that the previous day's candle had setup a Hanging Man. At structural resistance to boot. At structural resistance, this has proven to be a highly viable sell signal in my past trading - but that was before all the new knowledge I am gaining.

Not withstanding, combined with my new knowledge on structure, price patterns, price actions..., this is still a valid indication of price reversal. There was a similar setup on GBP/USD last monthish 30th June 2017 but I only see it on my brokers charts I guess because they take into account out of hours trading-That setup earned me about 100 pips-didn't capitalise on the move higher because that was the setup for the right shoulder of the Inverse Head and Shoulders formation on GBP/USD (Again teachers - THANK YOU. Analysis to targets was spot on thanks to everything you have been teaching me. I look forward to more).

In any case, yesterday's price action closed below the low of the Hanging Man, supporting my bearish bias. Just have to wait and see if my consolidation analysis holds. I will be looking for some sort of pull back and an entry reason on the Trading Time Frames, with Lower Time Frames for timing.

PS: Not take actual trades at the mo'-Though I would love to share actual results with the community.
I broke the rules doing so on the other two (GBP/USD Short +100 pips, AUD/CHF Inv H&S Long +62.5 pips) and I've been beating myself up for not being disciplined as advised. So Demos, Community Ideas, Back and Forward Testing for moi.
Your support and contributions would be greatly appreciated :)

2 de ago. de 2017

Nota

Sorry, I do see the GBP/USD Hanging Man (30 June 2017) on these charts. My Bad!