U.S. Aggregate T-Bond Market. Fears & Greed Awakening
Atualizado
Stocks heavily sold off Thursday (again), with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) tumbling nearly 500 points, as investors’ fears over a recession surfaced.
Some fresh data stoked fears over a possible recession and the notion that the Federal Reserve could be too late to start cutting interest rates. Initial jobless claims rose the most since August 2023. And the ISM manufacturing index, a barometer of factory activity in the U.S., came in at 46.8%, worse than expected and a signal of economic contraction.
After these releases, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4% for the first time since February.
These weak data releases come a day after central bank policymakers chose to keep rates at the highest levels in two decades, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave investors some hope by signaling a September rate cut could be on the table.
Labor situations is on the radars also, as fresh unemployment data expected on Friday, August 2.
The main technical chart is for U.S. Core Aggregate T-Bond Market ETF (AGG), in total return format/
With 11782 total number of holdings, AGG is US bond market in miniature.
Fears & Greed Awakening.
👉 VIX and VXN are sitting closer to their important levels, 20 and 25 points respectively.
👉 VIX to 50-Day VIX SMA ratio has recently jumped above 1.40, and this is the biggest level over the past twelve months.
👉 VXN to 50-Day VXN SMA ratio has recently jumped above 1.40, and this is the biggest level over the past twelve months.
👉 Difference in 20-day stock and bond returns slumped almost to Zero.
Technical observations
👉 AGG technical graph indicates on huge developing Reversed Head-and-Shoulders, with 2-year highs breakthrough.
👉 The nearest target could be considered is multi top, around $108 mark.
👉 In mid- to long term it could be good for stock indices and markets, despite of possible turbulence and seismic activity.
Some fresh data stoked fears over a possible recession and the notion that the Federal Reserve could be too late to start cutting interest rates. Initial jobless claims rose the most since August 2023. And the ISM manufacturing index, a barometer of factory activity in the U.S., came in at 46.8%, worse than expected and a signal of economic contraction.
After these releases, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4% for the first time since February.
These weak data releases come a day after central bank policymakers chose to keep rates at the highest levels in two decades, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave investors some hope by signaling a September rate cut could be on the table.
Labor situations is on the radars also, as fresh unemployment data expected on Friday, August 2.
The main technical chart is for U.S. Core Aggregate T-Bond Market ETF (AGG), in total return format/
With 11782 total number of holdings, AGG is US bond market in miniature.
Fears & Greed Awakening.
👉 VIX and VXN are sitting closer to their important levels, 20 and 25 points respectively.
👉 VIX to 50-Day VIX SMA ratio has recently jumped above 1.40, and this is the biggest level over the past twelve months.
👉 VXN to 50-Day VXN SMA ratio has recently jumped above 1.40, and this is the biggest level over the past twelve months.
👉 Difference in 20-day stock and bond returns slumped almost to Zero.
Technical observations
👉 AGG technical graph indicates on huge developing Reversed Head-and-Shoulders, with 2-year highs breakthrough.
👉 The nearest target could be considered is multi top, around $108 mark.
👉 In mid- to long term it could be good for stock indices and markets, despite of possible turbulence and seismic activity.
Trade ativo
August 2, 2024👉 10-year US Govt Treauries yield turned down, to 3.85 per cent, the lowest over the past twelve months level (52-weeks low), due to the labor market situation.
Trade ativo
August 2, 2024👉 Bond-to-Stock 20-Day difference jumped above 6%, the biggest level over the past many years (extreme fear).
Trade ativo
September 6, 2024
👉 iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
AGG has risen, resulting the epic breakthrough of 5-years SMA.
👉
TNX (10Y T-Bond Yield) is sitting nearly 3.70% in this time, while FVX (5Y T-Bond Yield) consolidates around 3.50% 2-years low.
👉 Fed key rate is still between 5.25 and 5.50 in this time.
Trade ativo
October 25, 2024
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