[ Short ] Cathay Pacific

1 de jan. de 2020

Living in Hong Kong, I am seeing the protests re-emerge literally outside my flat. I do believe this will have a continued impact on tourism here in the S.A.R.; notably from Mainland Chinese.

HK Tourism

I believe the move which began on 8 OCT is a result of the "Phase 1 of the Trade Deal." ( same day as Trump started it ). While I believe greater "USA election related progress" will be made on that front, the protests are not stopping & have been / exp. to continue to have a direct impact on this particular equity.

As of now, this ~3 month retracement represents a ~1.5 standard deviation from the mean looking back on the past 20 Yrs. Further relevant items below:

• [* Position : Short]
  [* Entry @ 11.76 ]
  [* Stop Loss @ 12.20 : ~representing 3.82% would be 1.65 Daily ATR's ( average of "the retracement" ) which I feel comfortably with. ]
  [* Target / Time Horizon : TBC but believe structuring it around their Q1 earnings & developments in protests / negative coverage in Mainland China about it will play a part. As for now, an 88% retracement to be completed ~3 mnths after earnings ( possibly an options play TBC ). ]
  [* Others : This equity doesn't have a very defined "structure" to be aware of for turning points albeit relies more on a range which it currently is in looking back since ~Sept 2018. RSI is currently overbought & an additional move up in the next ~1-2 wks may show RSI Divergence. You can also draw x3 Fib Retracement's looking back :: the 50% on the chart is the average of the identified fib range. ]
  

Would love to hear any / all comments & suggestions; notably on the Target / Time Horizon albeit any / all would be appreciated.

Cheers.