Temporal Value Tracker: Inception-to-Present Inflation Lens!What we're looking at here is a chart that does more than just display the price of gold. It offers us a time-traveling perspective on value. The blue line, that's our nominal price—it's the straightforward market price of gold over time. But it's the red line that takes us on a deeper journey. This line adjusts the nominal price for inflation, showing us the real purchasing power of gold.
Now, when we talk about 'real value,' we're not just philosophizing. We're anchoring our prices to a point in time when the journey began—let's say when gold trading started on the markets, or any inception point we choose. By 'shadowing' certain years—say, from the 1970s when the gold standard was abandoned—we can adjust this chart to reflect what the inflation-adjusted price means since that key moment in history.
By doing so, we're effectively isolating our view to start from that pivotal year, giving us insight into how gold, or indeed any asset, has held up against the backdrop of economic changes, policy shifts, and the inevitable rise in the cost of living. If you're analyzing a stock index like the S&P 500, you might begin your inflation-adjusted view from the index's inception date, which allows you to measure the true growth of the market basket from the moment it started.
This adjustment isn't just academic. It influences how we perceive value and growth. Consider a period where the nominal price skyrockets. We might toast to our brilliance in investment! But if the inflation-adjusted line lags, what we're seeing is nominal growth without real gains. On the other hand, if our red line outpaces the blue even during stagnant market periods, we're witnessing real growth—our asset is outperforming the eroding effects of inflation.
Every asset class can be evaluated this way. Stocks, bonds, real estate—they all have their historical narratives, and inflation adjustment tells us if these stories are tales of genuine growth or illusions masked by inflation.
So, as informed traders and investors, we need to keep our eyes on this inflation-adjusted line. It's our measure against the silent thief that is inflation. It ensures we're not just keeping up with the Joneses of the market, but actually outpacing them, building real wealth over time
Tas
1995-Present - Inflation and Purchasing PowerGood day, everyone! Today, we're going to look at a chart that's a bit different from the usual price charts we analyse. This isn't just any chart; it's a lens into the past, adjusted for the reality of inflation—a concept we often hear about but seldom see directly applied to our trading charts.
What we have here is an 'Inflation Adjusted Price' indicator on TradingView, and it's doing something quite special. It's showing us the price of our asset, let's say the S&P 500, not just in today's dollars, but in the dollars of 1995. Why 1995, you ask? Well, it's the starting point we've chosen to measure how much actual buying power has changed since then.
So, every point on this red line we see represents what the S&P 500's value would be if we stripped away the effects of inflation. This is the price in terms of what your money could actually buy you back in 1995.
As traders and investors, we're always looking at prices going up and thinking, 'Great! My investment is growing!' But the real question we should ask is, 'Is my money growing in real terms? Can it buy me more than it did last year, or five, ten, or twenty-five years ago?'
This chart tells us exactly that. If the red line is above the actual price, it means that the S&P 500 has not just grown in nominal terms, but it has actually outpaced inflation. Your investment has grown in real terms; it can buy you more now than it could back in 1995.
On the flip side, if the red line is below the actual price, that's a sign that while the nominal price might be up, the real value, the purchasing power, hasn't grown as much or could even have fallen.
This view is crucial, especially for the long-term investors among us. It gives us a reality check on our investments and savings. Are we truly growing our wealth, or are we just keeping up with the cost of living? This indicator answers that.
Remember, the true measure of financial growth is not just the numbers on a chart. It's what you can do with those numbers—how much bread, or eggs, or yes, even houses, you can buy with your hard-earned money
BTC Purchasing Power 2009-20XX! Hello, today I'm going to show you something that shifts our perspective on Bitcoin's value, not just in nominal terms, but adjusted for the real buying power over the years. This Pine Script TAS developed for TradingView does exactly that by taking into account inflation rates from 2009 to the present.
As you know, inflation erodes the purchasing power of money. That $100 in 2009 does not buy you the same amount in goods or services today. The same concept applies to Bitcoin. While we often look at its price in terms of dollars, pounds, or euros, it's crucial to understand what that price really means in terms of purchasing power.
What this script does is adjust the price of Bitcoin for cumulative inflation since 2009, allowing us to see not just how the nominal price has changed, but how its value as a means of purchasing goods and services has evolved.
For example, if we see Bitcoin's price at $60,000 today, that number might seem high compared to its early years. However, when we adjust this price for inflation, we might find that in terms of 2009's purchasing power, the effective price might be somewhat lower. This adjusted price gives us a more accurate reflection of Bitcoin's true value over time.
This script plots two lines on the chart:
The Original BTC Price: This is the unadjusted price of Bitcoin as we typically see it.
BTC Purchasing Power: This line shows Bitcoin's price adjusted for inflation, reflecting how many goods or services Bitcoin could buy at that point in time compared to 2009.
By comparing these lines, we can observe periods where Bitcoin's purchasing power significantly increased, even if the nominal price was not at its peak. This can help us identify moments when Bitcoin was undervalued or overvalued in real terms.
This analysis is crucial for long-term investors and traders who want to understand Bitcoin's value beyond the surface-level price movements. It helps us appreciate Bitcoin's potential as a store of value, especially in contexts where traditional currencies are losing purchasing power due to inflation.
Remember, investing is not just about riding price waves; it's about understanding the underlying value. And that's precisely what this script helps us to uncover
BTC/USD Inflation priced in! ~Period 2009 - 2023 (by TAS)The script creates a custom indicator titled "BTC Adjusted for Economic Factors.
Adjusted BTC Price is plotted in red, making it more prominent. The adjusted price is Bitcoin's historical closing prices adjusted for cumulative inflation over time, based on the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual inflation rates from 2009 onwards.
The script calculates the adjusted price of Bitcoin by taking into account the effect of inflation on its value. It uses annual CPI rates for each year from 2009 to 2022 to calculate a cumulative inflation factor. The script assumes a placeholder inflation rate of 2.5% for 2023, indicating that this value should be updated when the actual rate is available. The script suggests adding CPI rates for additional years as they become available to maintain the accuracy of the adjustment.
Here's a breakdown of how the script works:
Core CPI Annual Inflation Rates: It starts by defining the annual inflation rates for each year from 2009 to 2022, expressed as a percentage divided by 100 to convert to a decimal.
Cumulative Inflation Calculation: The script calculates cumulative inflation starting from the year 2009 up to the current year. For each year that has passed since 2009, it multiplies the cumulative inflation factor by (1 + cpiRate), where cpiRate is the inflation rate for that year. This effectively compounds the inflation rate over time.
Adjusting Bitcoin's Price: The script then adjusts Bitcoin's closing price (close) for the calculated cumulative inflation to get the adjusted price (adjustedPrice).
Plotting the Prices: Finally, it plots both the original and the adjusted Bitcoin prices on the chart, allowing users to visually compare how inflation has theoretically impacted Bitcoin's value over time.
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Important to notice, Fib. Retracements from the 2017 cycle top to the recent top (¬80K) doesn't look invalidated.
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Inputs and feedback are welcome!
TAS Boxes + TAS Vega + TAS Compass [TASMarketProfile]This bundle of 3 TAS Market Profile indicators provides a shaded background that reveals directional bias, colored price bars show clearly when breakout conditions are bullish (green) or bearish (red) as well as 3 real-time dotted lines that show developing commercial balance areas known as “value areas.” These TAS Boxes 3 lines are calculated in real-time and leveraged to identify trade entry zones, trailing stops and targets. The 3 indicators can be activated and applied to a chart simultaneously (as shown) or individually in the Inputs settings tab. This description contains descriptions for all 3 indicators in the order of TAS Boxes, TAS Vega and TAS Compass so you’ll need to scroll below to get to the one you want insight.
∟ ABOUT TAS BOXES:
TAS Boxes (also known as TAS Dynamic Profile) offers a dynamic representation of developing commercial balance areas known as “value areas” and are depicted with 3 colored horizontal dotted lines. Note that the thickness of the dotted lines may be adjusted in the Style settings.
Red Line- Supply / High Value Area (HVA) / Resistance
Cyan Line- Point of Control (POC)
Green Line- Demand / Low Value Area (LVA) / Support
The TAS Boxes calculate and display in real-time intrabar and are finalized at the close of the bar. The levels may dynamically update intrabar and move and this is viewed as foreshadowing of where new value areas may be attempting to appear next. When the market is between the top and bottom lines, the market is considered “in value” or “in balance.” When the market closes outside the top or bottom lines, the market is considered out of value/unbalanced and in breakout mode in that direction.
INPUT SETTINGS FOR TAS BOXES:
There are 3 inputs for TAS Boxes and below you’ll find the default settings:
MinSignal_123: 2 (only options are 1, 2, or 3)
Length: 7
MapLength: 7
MinSignal_123 -- Measures how established the commercial interest creating the balance area must be to create a new TAS Box. In other words, this input is a measure of the strength of the box.
Length –- Takes into consideration the relative “momentum” behind the move and how extended the move must be before the formation of new TAS Box levels.
MapLength –- Specifies the number of bars of data used to create the parameters of the TAS Box.
In summary, the first two inputs determine how often a new TAS Box will appear. The higher the input numbers the less often and harder it is to establish a new TAS Box, and vice versa. The last input simply determines how much data is included in the calculation of the new TAS Box.
While we recommend the default 2-7-7 as standard inputs for most traders as they work well with any tradable instrument with sufficient liquidity, other input combinations can be explored per the user’s preferences for varying sensitivity to market conditions and how recent of market conditions. Other settings to consider are 2-14-7 or 3-4-50. We invite the user to explore the cause and effect of changing the settings but doing so only after they have mastered an understanding of the strategy deployment with the defaults. The vast majority of users do not change the default settings.
WHAT MARKETS AND TIMEFRAMES CAN BE TRADED?
TAS Boxes can be displayed on Stocks, ETFs, futures, Forex and digital currencies. TAS Boxes can be applied to a chart of any time frame (e.g. 1-minute, 5-minute, 20-minute, daily, weekly, etc.) and will also function with many other style charts such as Range and Renko. Boxes displayed on longer time frames designate more significant balance areas and can be used to locate higher probability entries. Boxes on shorter time frames can be used to identify if the tradable instrument is currently in balance or breaking out, and pinpoint entries accordingly.
INTERPRETATION AND BASIC RULES:
HEIGHT OF BOXES: The height of the TAS Boxes from top line to bottom line is a measure of volatility. When taller Boxes are present and subsequent Boxes expand, this means the volatility of the market has increased. When the height of the Boxes is smaller or contracting, then we are experiencing a market in decreasing volatility or consolidating.
WIDTH OF BOXES: The width of the TAS Boxes are a measure of significance. The longer TAS Boxes have remained at the same levels, the higher the impact they will generally have as support or resistance levels, and in the instances they are breached the market may experience fast and vertical movement.
The TAS Boxes are used to identify high-probability zones for trading both inside the range of the Boxes and also when in breakout mode outside the Boxes:
>>> When price is trading within the boundaries of a normal to wide range commercial
balance area, we can consider trades within the range of the Boxes and should look for entries around the support (green line) or resistance (red line) areas with profit targets around the POC (cyan line) or opposite boundary.
>>> When taking trades near both the upper and lower boundaries, we like to see the POC
near the middle of the box’s range. This is known as a “symmetrical box” as pictured below.
>>> If the POC is plotted tightly close to or at the same price level as the green or red line, we refer to this as forming a “wall” or "plywood" and anticipate stronger commercial interest providing support or resistance in those areas.
>>> When trading above or below the current box, price is said to be in breakout/breakdown mode. During these modes, one should be getting out of any opposing positions that are not in the direction of the breakout. Not all breakout/breakdowns are created equal. Moves outside of TAS Boxes when the vertical distance from Top to Bottom is minimal will tend to have more powerful moves, especially in instances when there are recent long-range bars in the direction of the break.
>>> When markets are breaking out or down outside of Boxes, if there is sizeable space before you encounter recent historal TAS Boxes levels that is favorable for good follow through of the move. Prior TAS Boxes levels do serve as as areas the market may encounter friction and go sideways for a period of time.
MANAGING RISK WITH STOP LOSSES:
We highly recommend the use of stop losses when trading. You can place stop losses outside of the 3 lines of TAS Boxes and trail them behind the market as new Boxes appear in the direction of the trade. You may also move trailing stops among the 3 levels to suit your risk tolerance (e.g. when market is in breakout mode, trailing it from out the Boxes to outside the POC level or opposing level). You can start your initial stop outside the opposite of all 3 lines or on the other side of the POC for lower risk.
∟ ABOUT TAS VEGA:
TAS Vega changes the coloring of the price bars to provide a more meaningful interpretation of when markets are in balance (based on TAS Boxes) or in bullish/bearish breakout mode. There are four colors generated for TAS Vega:
GREEN – Bullish breakout / Don’t be short
RED – Bearish breakdown / Don’t be long
ORANGE – 1st bar back inside TAS Boxes after prior move outside.
GRAY – Balanced, each subsequent bar after the 1st bar closes inside Boxes.
INTERPRETATION AND BASIC RULES:
WHEN VEGA IS GREEN:
Don’t be short.
Consider longs only or retain existing long positions.
Entering on the bar close above the Boxes is higher probability than intrabar entry.
Many consecutive bar closes above Boxes increases probability of eventual move higher.
WHEN VEGA IS RED:
Don’t be long.
Consider shorts only or retain existing short positions.
Entering on the bar close below the Boxes is higher probability than intrabar entry.
Many consecutive bar closes below Boxes increases probability of eventual move lower.
WHEN VEGA IS ORANGE:
If orange due to closing back inside Boxes of your initial entry Box, hold.
If orange due to closing inside a new Box appearing in the direction of your trade (higher Boxes for longs, lower Boxes for short) consider this a potential 1st tier profit-taking opportunity for multi-lot/shares positions. If single units, exit is at the trader's discretion contingent on the extent of the move.
It is prudent risk management to also use the appearance of orange closed bars as a reminder to trail your stop loss behind the new TAS Boxes levels.
Many times you may see many orange bars over a series of bars (not consecutive, however) and this means the market continues to explore both sides of TAS Boxes and is indecisive about intentions. Be cautious at these times.
WHEN VEGA IS GRAY:
Gray bars simply means the bar has closed in balance within the value area of TAS Boxes.
Gray bars are not a cue to exit a position necessarily. It is just a visual that the bar has closed in the value area. Often a trending move will have many periods that the market closes back inside new Boxes that are appearing in the direction of the trend and your largest trades will require that you simply adjust your trailing stop rather than exit with gray bars.
It is prudent risk management to also use the appearance of orange closed bars as a reminder to trail your stop loss behind the new TAS Boxes levels.
Many times you may see many orange bars over a series of bars (not consecutive, however) and this means the market continues to explore both sides of TAS Boxes and is indecisive about intentions. Be cautious at these times.
The user can adjust the coloring of the TAS Vega bars in Style settings.
∟ ABOUT TAS COMPASS:
TAS Compass changes the background color of the chart to reveal the directional bias of the market. It may be applied to charts in any timeframe for stocks, ETFs, futures, Forex and digital currencies.
There are two colors generated for TAS Compass:
GREEN – Bullish directional bias
RED – Bearish directional bias
INTERPRETATION AND BASIC RULES:
The directional bias is established (or changes) when a bar closes outside of TAS Boxes levels. When a market closes above the TAS Boxes, it will establish a bullish bias (green background) and this will remain intact until there is a close below the TAS Boxes. At the time there is a bar close below the TAS Boxes, then the TAS Compass bias changes to bearish bias (red background). This sequence continues back and forth indefinitely. When using TAS Compass, one should still follow the prudent rules and best practices of TAS Boxes as there may be opportunities to exit a losing position sooner by doing so even in the instance a TAS Compass directional bias has not changed.
TAS Compass can be used as a stand-alone visual cue on a chart, but will have accentuated value when used in conjunction with TAS Boxes and TAS Vega indicators included within this bundle.
Below is an example showing TAS Compass with TAS Boxes in order to show how the closes outside of TAS Boxes is the trigger to the background color change logic.
Trade Well My Friends,