Fair Value Gap Oscillator (Expo)█ Overview
The Fair Value Gap Oscillator (Expo) is an indicator based on the concept of Fair Value Gaps. It is a momentum indicator that helps traders identify mispricings in the market over time. The indicator also incorporates volume and volatility to increase its accuracy further. The indicator can be used in both trending and range-bound markets.
FVG occurs when there is an insufficient amount of buyers and sellers in the market for a particular asset. This can cause a sudden and large gap in the asset price, creating an imbalance in the price. This gap can be large enough to prevent traders from entering the market to take advantage of the price discrepancy. This, in turn, leads to a lack of liquidity and further price volatility.
█ How is the Fair Value Gap Oscialltor calculated?
The Fair Value Gap Oscillator is calculated by using historical Fair Value Gapa, volume, and volatility to determine if the market is trading at a discount or premium relative to its historical fair value. It is based on the idea that prices move in fair value cycles and that by looking at the oscillations of FVG data over time, traders can get a deeper insight into how imbalances impact the price over time.
█ Oscillator Trading
Oscillators are technical indicators that are used to measure momentum within a given market. These indicators measure the speed and magnitude of price movements. Traders use oscillators to identify potential entry and exit points in the market. They may look for overbought and oversold conditions, or they may look for divergence between the price of an asset and its oscillator. When these signals are identified, traders can then enter or exit positions accordingly.
█ How to use
It is a momentum indicator that helps traders identify mispricings in the market over time. In addition, the FVG Oscialltor can be used to identify overbought and oversold conditions in the market, as well as trends and leading trend changes.
Trending Indicator
The Fair Value Gap Oscillator can also be used to identify trends in the market. By tracking the FVG over time, investors can identify whether the market is trending up or down.
Leading Indicator
This indicator can be used to identify leading changes in the market’s momentum and price action. It will indicate beforehand when the momentum decreases and a potential trend change is about to come.
Divergences
Leading Indicators are great for identifying divergences. This Fair Value Gap Oscillator is a powerful yet simple tool to spot divergences in the market.
It is important to remember that the Fair Value Gap Oscillator is just one tool in your investment toolbox. It should be used in conjunction with other smart money concept indicators to identify excellent trading opportunities.
█ Indicator Features
Trend FVG
A Trend FVG feature is added to help Trend Traders get a long-term overview of the FVG trend. This feature can be used for the leading FVG calculation to get a predictive FVG trend.
Leading FVG Calculation
The leading calculation makes the Fair Value Gap oscillator sensitive to fair value changes and becomes more leading.
Trend Line
The Trend line feature is a combination of the leading and the long-term trend that can be used as trend confirmation.
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Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
Pesquisar nos scripts por "Cycle"
OECD CLI Diffusion IndexWhat does the indicator measure?
This is a macro indicator. It uses OECD's composite leading indicator - see details about the CLI below.
What it does it calculate YoY changes for CLI of 38 countries that are members or are associated with the OECD. Then it measures a percent of countries which CLI is rising.
How this can be used?
The positive slope of the curve means that there probably will be an economic growth among those countries within next 6 - 9 months. The negative slope means there probably will be an economic contraction.
Forward-looking economic growth is correlated with positive S&P 500 YoY growth (equity markets are also forward looking). The chart above presents the CLI diffusion index with overlayed S&P500 YoY rate of change.
The CLI is also correlated with ISM PMI - see example below:
What is a CLI?
"The OECD system of Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) is designed to provide early signals of turning points in business cycles - fluctuation in the output gap, i.e. fluctuation of the economic activity around its long term potential level. This approach, focusing on turning points (peaks and troughs), results in CLIs that provide qualitative rather than quantitative information on short-term economic movements."
Atlantean Bitcoin Weekly Market Condition - Top/Bottom BTC Overview:
The "Atlantean Bitcoin Weekly Market Condition Detector - Top/Bottom BTC" is a specialized TradingView indicator designed to identify significant turning points in the Bitcoin market on a weekly basis. By analyzing long-term and short-term moving averages across two distinct resolutions, this indicator provides traders with valuable insights into potential market bottoms and tops, as well as the initiation of bull markets.
Key Features:
Market Bottom Detection: The script uses a combination of a simple moving average (SMA) and an exponential moving average (EMA) calculated over long and short periods to identify potential market bottoms. When these conditions are met, the script signals a "Market Bottom" label on the chart, indicating a possible buying opportunity.
Bull Market Start Indicator: When the short-term EMA crosses above the long-term SMA, it signals the beginning of a bull market. This is marked by a "Bull Market Start" label on the chart, helping traders to prepare for potential market upswings.
Market Top Detection: The script identifies potential market tops by analyzing the crossunder of long and short-term moving averages. A "Market Top" label is plotted, suggesting a potential selling point.
Customizable Moving Averages Display: Users can choose to display the moving averages used for detecting market tops and bottoms, providing additional insights into market conditions.
How It Works: The indicator operates by monitoring the interactions between the specified moving averages:
Market Bottom: Detected when the long-term SMA (adjusted by a factor of 0.745) crosses over the short-term EMA.
Bull Market Start: Detected when the short-term EMA crosses above the long-term SMA.
Market Top: Detected when the long-term SMA (adjusted by a factor of 2) crosses under the short-term SMA.
These conditions are highlighted on the chart, allowing traders to visualize significant market events and make informed decisions.
Intended Use: This indicator is best used on weekly Bitcoin charts. It’s designed to provide long-term market insights rather than short-term trading signals. Traders can use this tool to identify strategic entry and exit points during major market cycles. The optional display of moving averages can further enhance understanding of market dynamics.
Originality and Utility: Unlike many other indicators, this script not only highlights traditional market tops and bottoms but also identifies the aggressive start of bull markets, offering a comprehensive view of market conditions. The unique combination of adjusted moving averages makes this script a valuable tool for long-term Bitcoin traders.
Disclaimer: The signals provided by this indicator are based on historical data and mathematical calculations. They do not guarantee future market performance. Traders should use this tool as part of a broader trading strategy and consider other factors before making trading decisions. Not financial advice.
Happy Trading!
By Atlantean
Mechanical Switch DetectorThis script reads volume as a voltage and picks up the mechanical signal of a switch. Instead of looking at the light globe to see when it turns on, this picks up the surge/pattern created when flicking on the switch. This picks up chart movements/cycles directly from the switches used in the ticker machine.. Faster than light.
Adjust "len" in the settings to select the sensitivity of the current used to calculate the threshold. 20 is default but try lengths of 200 or even 6 for smaller surges of current. This script assumes the ticker data is an analogue signal and picks up mechanical responses that are embedded within this signal. Nothing is random.
Time TradesThese indicators are part of the Time Trades service.
This script includes 2 timing indicators:
* Cheat Code displays green and purple timing periods
* Gann Waves displays yellow and blue vertical bars
Both indicators are based on natural cycles, and are visible into the future.
Visibility of both indicators is controlled via the Settings menu.
Cheat Code:
* Displays green periods and purple periods.
* Prices seem to trend more within a green period, both up and down.
* Often there’s major pivots around the middle of a green period, and about 3/4 through.
* Prices seem to chop more within a purple period with lots of volatility and reversals.
* Thin light grey lines appear at regular intervals that tend to align with local pivots.
* Thick grey lines appear around the middle of the green period that tens to align with major pivots
* You can use this information to vary your trading strategy to better match the expected price behavior.
Gann Waves
* Displays yellow and purple vertical bands that tend to align with local pivots.
* You can match this up with the symbol you’re analyzing to see what patterns tend to happen during similar periods.
* Sometimes stocks will make local highs for 3-4 yellow periods in a row, and then make a lower high. This would indicate a potential change in trend.
Stochastic DotsThese Stochastic Dots can help show potential turning points and cycles in the market.
- The smaller dots are based off of a faster moving stochastic
- The bigger dots are based off of a longer moving stochastic
- Dots below the candle/bar are bullish
- Dots above the candle/bar are bearish
This indicator is not meant to be traded by itself. Use other forms of confluency and confirmation with it.
If you're interested in more customized indicators to suit your needs, feel free to message me.
Cycle Channel Oscillator [LazyBear]Here's an oscillator derived from my previous script, Cycle Channel Clone ().
There are 2 oscillator plots - fast & slow. Fast plot shows the price location with in the medium term channel, while slow plot shows the location of short term midline of cycle channel with respect to medium term channel.
Usage of this is similar to %b oscillator. The slow plot can be considered as the signal line.
Bar colors can be enabled via options page. When short plot is above 1.0 or below 0, they are marked purple (both histo and the bar color) to highlight the extreme condition.
This makes use of the default 10/30 values of Cycle Channel, but may need tuning for your instrument.
More info:
List of my free indicators: bit.ly
List of my app-store indicators: blog.tradingview.com (More info: bit.ly)
Cycle IndicatorA cycle indicator using a combination of hull and simple moving average, makes divergence very easy to see, colors are paired up when on either side of a trend when in a down trend uses red, with green for a pull back and when in up trend uses lime with maroon for the pull back, time entry when pull backs are back over zero line
Empirical Kaspa Power Law Full Model v3.1🔶 First we need to understand what Power Laws are.
Power laws are mathematical relationships where one quantity varies as a power of another. They are prevalent in both natural and social systems, describing phenomena such as earthquake magnitudes, word frequencies, and wealth distributions. In a power-law relationship, a change in one quantity results in a proportional change in another, typically following a consistent and predictable mathematical pattern.
🔶 Why Do Power Laws work for Bitcoin and Kaspa?
Power laws work for Bitcoin and Kaspa due to the underlying principles of network dynamics and growth patterns that these cryptocurrencies exhibit. Here's how:
1. Network Growth and User Adoption:
Both Bitcoin and Kaspa grow as more users join their networks. The value of these networks often increases in a manner consistent with Metcalfe’s Law, which states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of its number of users. This relationship is a form of a power law, where network effects lead to exponential growth as more users participate.
2. Mining and Hash Rate:
The mining difficulty and hash rate in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Kaspa adjust based on network activity. As more miners join, the difficulty increases to maintain a stable rate of block production. This self-adjusting mechanism creates feedback loops that can be described by power laws, ensuring the stability and security of the network over time.
3. Price Behavior:
Astrophysicist Giovanni Santostasi discovered that Bitcoin’s price follows a power-law distribution over time. This means that despite short-term volatility, Bitcoin’s long-term price behavior is predictable and adheres to specific mathematical patterns. Santostasi's model provides a framework for understanding Bitcoin’s price movements and forecasting future trends. He also discovered that Kaspa might be following a power-law aswell but it might be to early to tell because Kaspa hasn't been around for too long(2years).
4. Resource Allocation and System Stability:
As the price of Bitcoin or Kaspa increases, more resources are allocated to mining, leading to more sophisticated mining operations. This iterative process of investment and technological advancement follows a power-law pattern, driving the growth and stability of the network.
In summary, the application of power laws to Bitcoin and Kaspa offers a structured framework for understanding their price movements, network growth, and overall stability. These principles provide valuable predictive tools for long-term forecasting, helping to explain the dynamic behavior of these cryptocurrencies.
🔶 What does it look like on a chart?
Here is the Kaspa power law plotted on the KaspaUSD chart. Notice that the y-axis is in logarithmic scale. Unfortunately, TradingView does not allow the x-axis to be in logarithmic scale, which would otherwise make the power law appear as a straight line.
🔶 All the features of the Empirical Kaspa Power Law Full Model
This indicator includes a variety of scripts and tools, meticulously designed and developed to navigate the Kaspa market effectively.
🔹 Power Law & Deviation bands
The decision to use the lower two bands, marking an area between -40% to -50% below the power law, is based on historical analysis. Historically, this range has proven to be a great buying opportunity. In the case of Bitcoin, the bottom typically lies around -60% from the power law. However, for Kaspa, the bottom appears to be less distant from the power law. This discrepancy can be attributed to the differing supply dynamics of the two. Bitcoin undergoes a halving event approximately every four years, significantly reducing the rate at which new coins are introduced into circulation. This cyclical halving can lead to larger price fluctuations and a greater deviation from the power law. In contrast, Kaspa employs a more gradual reduction in its emission rate, with a 5% decrease each month. This consistent and incremental reduction helps Kaspa's price follow the power law more closely, resulting in less pronounced deviations. Consequently, the bottom for Kaspa tends to be closer to the power law, typically around -40% to -50%, rather than the -60% observed with Bitcoin.
The top two deviation bands are fitted to a few bubble data points, which are honestly not very reliable compared to the bottom bands that are based on a larger number of data points. When examining Bitcoin, we see that the bottoms are quite predictable due to the availability of thousands of data points, making it easier to identify patterns and trends.
However, predicting the tops is significantly more challenging because we lack a substantial amount of data for the peaks. This limited data makes it difficult to draw reliable conclusions about the upper deviation bands. As a result, while the bottom bands offer a robust framework for analysis, the top bands should be approached with caution due to their lesser reliability.
🔹 Alternating Sine wave
In observing the price behavior of Kaspa, an intriguing pattern emerges: it tends to follow a roughly four-month cycle. This cycle appears to alternate between smaller and larger waves. To capture this pattern, the sine wave in our indicator is designed to follow the power law, with both the top and bottom of the wave adjusting according to it.
Here's a simple explanation of how this works:
1. Four-Month Cycle: Empirically, Kaspa’s price seems to oscillate over approximately 120 days. This cycle includes periods of growth and decline, repeating every four months. Within these cycles, we observe alternating phases one smaller and one larger in amplitude.
2. Power Law Influence: The sine wave component of our indicator is not arbitrary; it follows a power law that predicts the general price trend of Kaspa. The power law essentially provides a baseline that reflects the longer-term price trajectory.
3. Diminishing Returns and Smoothing: To model diminishing returns, we adjust the amplitude of the sine wave over time, making it smaller as the cycle progresses. This helps to capture the natural tendency for price movements to become less volatile over longer periods. Additionally, the bottom of the sine wave adheres to the power law, ensuring it remains consistent with the overall trend.
🔹 Sine wave Cycle Start & End
Color transitions play a crucial role in visualizing different phases of the four-month cycle.
Based on empirical data, Kaspa experiences approximately 60 days of downward price action following each cycle peak, a period we refer to as the bear phase. This phase is followed by the bull phase, which also lasts around 60 days. To indicate the cycle peak, we have added a colored warning on the sine wave.
Cycle Start (Purple): The sine wave starts with a purple color, marking the beginning of a new cycle. This bull phase often represents a potential bottom or accumulation zone where prices are lower and stable, offering a strategic point for entering the market.
Cycle Top (Red): As the cycle progresses, the sine wave transitions through colors until it reaches red. This red phase indicates the top of the cycle, where the price is likely peaking. It's a critical area for investors to consider dollar-cost averaging (DCA) out of Kaspa, as it signifies a period of potential overvaluation and heightened risk.
These color transitions provide a visual guide to the market's cyclical nature, helping investors identify optimal entry and exit points. By following the sine wave's color changes, you can better time your investments, entering at the start of the cycle and considering exits as the cycle tops out.
🔹 Colored Deviation from the Power Law Bubbles
In trading, having a clear visual signal can significantly enhance decision-making, especially when dealing with complex models like power laws. This inspired the creation of the "deviation bubbles" in my indicator, which provides an intuitive, color-coded visual queue to help me, and other traders, better grasp market deviations and make timely trading decisions.
Here's a breakdown of how the deviation bubbles work:
1. Power Law Reference: The core of the indicator calculates a theoretical price level (the power law price) for Kaspa.
2. Deviation Calculation: For each day, the indicator computes the percentage deviation of the actual closing price from this power law price. This tells how much the market price diverges from the theoretically expected level.
3. Color-Coding Based on Deviation:
The deviation is categorized into various ranges (e.g., ≥ 100%, 90-100%, 80-90%, etc.).
Each range is assigned a distinct color, from red for extreme positive deviations to blue for extreme negative deviations.
This gradient helps in quickly identifying significant market deviations.
By integrating these bubbles into the chart, the indicator offers a simple yet powerful visual tool, aiding in recognizing critical market conditions without the need to delve into complex calculations manually. This approach not only enhances the ease of trading but also helps in overcoming the hesitation often faced when pulling the trigger on trades.
🔹 Projected Power Law Bands
Extends the current power law bands into the future using the same formula that defines the current power law.
Visual Representation: Dotted lines on the chart indicate the projected power law price and deviation bands.
Limitations: TradingView restricts how far these projections can extend, typically up to a reasonable future period.
These projected bands help anticipate future price movements, aiding in more informed trading decisions.
🔹 Projected Sine Wave
This projection continues to calculate the phase and amplitude, adjusting for diminishing returns and cycle transitions. It also estimates the future power law price, ensuring the projection reflects potential market dynamics.
Visual Representation: The projected sine wave is shown with dotted blue lines, providing a clear visual of the expected trend, aiding traders in their decision-making process.
Limitations: Again, TradingView restricts how far these projections can extend, typically up to a reasonable future period.
🔶 Why are all these different scripts made into one indicator?
As a trader and crypto analyst, I needed specific tools and customizations that no other indicator offered. Being a visual person, I rely heavily on visual triggers such as colors and patterns to make trading decisions. Initially, I developed this indicator for my personal use to enhance my market analysis with these visual cues. However, after sharing my insights, other traders expressed interest in using it. In response, I expanded the functionality and added various options to cater to a broader range of users.
This comprehensive indicator integrates multiple features into one tool, providing a powerful and flexible solution for analyzing market trends and making informed trading decisions. The use of colors and visual elements helps in quickly identifying key signals and market phases. The customizable options allow you to fine-tune the indicator to suit your specific needs, making it a versatile tool for both novice and experienced traders.
🔶 Usage & Settings:
This indicator is best used on the Daily chart for KASUSD - crypto because it uses a power law formula based on days.
🔹 Using the Indicator for 4-Month Cycles:
For traders interested in playing the 4-month cycles, this indicator provides a straightforward strategy. When the bubbles turn purple or the sine wave shows the purple start color, it signals a good time to dollar-cost average (DCA) into the market. Conversely, when the bubbles turn red or the cycle top is near, indicated by a red color, it’s time to DCA out of the Kaspa market. This visual approach helps traders make timely decisions based on color-coded signals, simplifying the trading process.
Historically, it was nearly impossible to accurately time all the 4-month cycle tops because they alternate each time. Without the combination of multiple scripts in this indicator, identifying these cyclical patterns and their respective peaks was extremely challenging. This integrated tool now provides a clear and reliable method for detecting these critical points, enhancing trading effectiveness.
🔹 Combining the visual queues for market extremes
The chart above illustrates the alignment of visual cues indicating market extremes. Notably, these visual cues—marked by red and purple boxes—historically pinpoint areas of extreme value or opportunities. When red aligns with red and purple aligns with purple, these zones have consistently indicated significant market extremes.
Understanding and recognizing these patterns provides a strategic advantage. By identifying these visual triggers, traders can plan and execute informed trades with greater confidence whenever similar scenarios unfold in the future.
Kaspa is perhaps one of the most cyclical and predictable cryptocurrencies in the market. Given its consistent behavior, traders might wonder why they would trade anything else. As long as there are no signs indicating a change in Kaspa's cyclical nature, there is no reason to make significant alterations to our predictions. This makes Kaspa an attractive option for traders seeking reliable and repeatable trading opportunities.
🔹 Settings & customization:
As a visually-oriented trader, it is essential to customize the appearance of indicators to effectively navigate the Kaspa market. The Indicator offers extensive customization options, allowing users to modify the colors of various elements to suit their preferences. For example, users can adjust the colors of the deviation bubbles, deviation bands, sine wave, and power law to enhance visual clarity and focus on specific data points. This level of personalization not only enhances the overall user experience but also ensures that the visual representation aligns with unique trading strategies, making it easier to interpret complex market data.
Additionally, users can change the power law inputs and other parameters as shown in the image. For instance, the Power Law Intercept and Power Law Slope can be manually adjusted, allowing traders to update these values. This flexibility is crucial as the future power law for Kaspa may evolve/change.
🔶 Limitations
Like any technical analysis tool, the Empirical Kaspa Power Law Full Model indicator has limitations. It's based on historical data, which may not always accurately predict future market movements.
🔶 Credits
I want to thank Dr. Giovanni Santostasi · Professor of physics and Mathematics.
He was one of the first who applied the concept of the power law to Bitcoin's price movements, which has been instrumental in providing insights into the long-term growth and potential future value of Bitcoin. Giovanni also offers coding classes on his Discord, which I attended. He personally taught me how to code specific things in Pine Editor and Python, sparking my interest in developing my own indicator.
Additionally, I would like to extend my gratitude to the following individuals for their invaluable contributions in terms of ideas, theories, formulas, testing, and guidance:
Forgowork, PlanC, Miko Genno, Chancellor, SavingFace, Kaspapero, JJ Venema.
Ehlers Band-Pass FilterHeyo,
This indicator is an original translation from Ehlers' book "Cycle Analytics for Traders Advanced".
First, I describe the indicator as usual and later you can find a very insightful quote of the book.
Key Features
Signal Line: Represents the output of the band-pass filter, highlighting the dominant cycle in the data.
Trigger Line: A leading indicator derived from the signal line, providing early signals for potential market reversals.
Dominant Cycle: Measures the dominant cycle period by counting the number of bars between zero crossings of the band-pass filter output.
Calculation:
The band-pass filter is implemented using a combination of high-pass and low-pass filters.
The filter's parameters, such as period and bandwidth, can be adjusted to tune the filter to specific market cycles.
The signal line is normalized using an Automatic Gain Control (AGC) to provide consistent amplitude regardless of price swings.
The trigger line is derived by applying a high-pass filter to the signal line, creating a leading
waveform.
Usage
The indicator is effective in identifying peaks and valleys in the market data.
It works best in cyclic market conditions and may produce false signals during trending periods.
The dominant cycle measurement helps traders understand the prevailing market cycle length, aiding in better decision-making.
Quoted from the Book
Band-Pass Filters
“A little of the data narrowly passed,” said Tom broadly.
Perhaps the least appreciated and most underutilized filter in technical analysis is the band-pass filter. The band-pass filter simultaneously diminishes the amplitude at low frequencies, qualifying it as a detrender, and diminishes the amplitude at high frequencies, qualifying it as a data smoother.
It passes only those frequency components from input to output in which the trader is interested. The filtering produced by a band-pass filter is superior because the rejection in the stop bands is related to its bandwidth. The degree of rejection of undesired frequency components is called selectivity. The band-stop filter is the dual of the band-pass filter. It rejects a band of frequency components as a notch at the output and passes all other frequency components virtually unattenuated. Since the bandwidth of the deep rejection in the notch is relatively narrow and since the spectrum of market cycles is relatively broad due to systemic noise, the band-stop filter has little application in trading.
Measuring the Cycle Period
The band-pass filter can be used as a relatively simple measurement of the dominant cycle.
A cycle is complete when the waveform crosses zero two times from the last zero crossing. Therefore, each successive zero crossing of the indicator marks a half cycle period. We can establish the dominant cycle period as twice the spacing between successive zero crossings.
When we measure the dominant cycle period this way, it is best to widen the pass band of the band-pass filter to avoid distorting the measurement simply due to the selectivity of the filter. Using an input bandwidth of 0.7 produces an octave-wide pass band. For example, if the center period of the filter is 20 and the relative bandwidth is 0.7, the bandwidth is 14. That means the pass band of the filter extends from 13-bar periods to 27-bar periods.
That is, roughly an octave exists because the longest period is twice the shortest period of the pass band. It is imperative that a high-pass filter is tuned one octave below the half-bandwidth edge of the band-pass filter to ensure a nominal zero mean of the filtered output. Without a zero mean, the zero crossings can have a substantial error.
Since the measurement of the dominant cycle can vary dramatically from zero crossing to zero
crossing, the code limits the change between measurements to be no more than 25 percent.
While measuring the changing dominant cycle period via zero crossings of the band-pass waveform is easy, it is not necessarily the most accurate method.
Best regards,
simwai
Good Luck with your trading! 🙌
Bitcoin Destiny Line Model v1.1The Bitcoin Destiny Line Model
Table of Contents
1. Overview
2. Analytical and Technical Techniques Employed
3. Objectives of the Bitcoin Destiny Line Model
4. Key Technical Components and Functionalities
4.1. Bitcoin Destiny Line and Heatmap
4.2. Halving Cycles Markers
4.3. Dynamic Repricing Rails with Diminishing Volatility Adjustment
4.4. Seasonal Dynamics
4.5. Support and Resistance Zones
4.6. Market Action Indicators
4.7. Cycle Projections
4.8. Heatmap Only
5. Settings
6. Different Strategies to Utilize the Model
6.1. Value-Based Entry Strategy
6.2. Long-Term Position Strategy
6.3. Scaling Out Strategy
6.4. Portfolio Rebalancing Strategy
6.5. Bear Market Strategy
6.6. Short-Term Trading Strategy
7. Recommendations and Disclosures
1. Overview
The Bitcoin Destiny Line Model is a technical analysis toolset designed exclusively for Bitcoin. It integrates a comprehensive suite of analytical methodologies to provide deep insights into Bitcoin's market dynamics focusing on long-term investment strategies.
By analyzing historical data through various technical frameworks, the model helps investors gain insight into the current market structure, cycle dynamics, direction, and trend of Bitcoin, assisting investors and traders with data-driven decision-making.
2. Analytical and Technical Techniques Employed
The model integrates a range of analytical techniques:
Cycle Analysis - Centers on the Bitcoin halving event to anticipate phases within the Bitcoin cycle.
Logarithmic Regression Analysis - Calculates the logarithmic growth of Bitcoin over time.
Standard Deviation - Measures how significantly the price action differs from the long-term logarithmic trend.
Fibonacci Analysis - Identifies support and resistance levels.
Multi-Timeframe Momentum - Analyzes overbought or oversold conditions across multiple periods.
Trendlines - Draws trendlines from expected cycle lows to expected cycle highs extending logarithmic and deviation lines into the future as projection lines.
3. Objectives of the Bitcoin Destiny Line Model
The model is crafted to deliver an empirical framework for Bitcoin investing:
Bitcoin Market Structure - Offers insights into Bitcoin’s market structure.
Identify Value Opportunities and Risk Areas - Pinpoints potential value-entry opportunities and recognizes when the market is over-extended.
Leverage Market Cycles - Utilizes knowledge of Bitcoin’s seasonal dynamics and halving cycles to inform investment strategies.
Mitigate Downside Risk - Provides indicators for potential market corrections, aiding in risk management and avoidance of buying at peak prices.
4. Key Technical Components and Functionalities
4.1. Bitcoin Destiny Line and Heatmap
The cycle low to cycle high line with a risk-based color-coded heatmap serves as a central reference for Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
It emphasizes the long-term trend indicating areas of value in cool colors and areas of risk in warm colors.
4.2. Halving Cycles Markers
Bitcoin halving events are marked on the chart with vertical lines forming anchor points for cycle analysis.
4.3. Dynamic Repricing Rails with Diminishing Volatility Adjustment
Repricing rails based on the long-term logarithmic trend highlight the rails on which Bitcoin's price will reprice up or down.
Adjusts to the diminishing volatility of the asset over time as it matures.
4.4. Seasonal Dynamics
Integrates Bitcoin's inherent seasonal trends to provide additional context for market conditions aligning with broader market analysis.
Understanding Bitcoin’s seasons:
Spring Awakening - The initial recovery phase where the market begins to rebound from a bear market showing early signs of improvement. This is an ideal time for cautious optimism. Investors should consider gradually increasing their positions in Bitcoin, focusing on accumulation as confidence in market recovery grows.
Blossom Boom - A market bottom has been confirmed by now and market interest continues to pick up ahead of the Bitcoin halving. This typically presents a great opportunity for investors to position themselves advantageously ahead of expected price movements. It’s a good time to review and adjust portfolios to align with anticipated trends.
Midsummer Momentum - This phase follows the Bitcoin halving, characterized by a sideways to upward price trend often supported by heightened interest and media coverage. It represents potentially the last opportunity in the cycle for investors to purchase Bitcoin at lower price levels unlikely to be seen again. Investors should closely monitor the market for value buying opportunities to bolster their long-term investment strategies.
Rocket Rise - A phase where Bitcoin prices are likely to surge dramatically driven by a mix of Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) among new investors and widespread media hype. The strategy here is twofold: long-term holders should hold steady to reap maximum gains whereas more speculative investors might look to capitalize on the volatility by taking profits at optimal moments before a potential correction.
Winter Whispers - Following a bull run, the market begins to cool, marked by some investors taking profits and consequently increasing price fluctuations and volatility. During this time, investors should remain vigilant, tightening stop-loss orders to safeguard gains. This phase may be suitable for those looking to liquidate a portion of their long-term investments. However, for an investor to be selling the majority of their Bitcoin holdings is generally not advisable as it could preclude benefiting from potential future appreciations.
Deep Freeze - The market enters a bearish phase with significant price declines and market corrections. It's a period of consolidation and resetting of price levels. The end of this stage could typically be seen as a buying opportunity for the long-term investor. Accumulating Bitcoin during this phase can be advantageous as prices are lower and provide a foundation for significant growth in the next cycle.
4.5. Support and Resistance Zones
Calculates key levels that inform stop-loss placements and trading size decisions enhancing trading strategy around the Bitcoin Destiny Line.
4.6. Market Action Indicators
Suggests potential trading actions for different market phases aiding traders in identifying investment/trading opportunities.
Risk Indicator - Signals when prices are extremely over-extended helping to avoid entries during potential peak valuations.
4.7. Cycle Projections
Extends repricing levels into the future providing a visual forecast of expected price movements and enhancing strategic planning capabilities.
Cycle-High Price Projection Range - Provides a probabilistic range for upcoming cycle peaks based on historical trends and current market analysis.
4.8. Heatmap Only
It is also possible to plot the heatmap only as a background or as a bar in a second indicator.
4.9. Complete Visual View
A complete view of all key elements switched on the model.
5. Settings
Users can select to only show specific elements or all elements of the model.
They can set the sensitivity of some of the model elements and adjust certain view settings.
6. Different Strategies to Utilize the Model
The following strategies are enabled by the Bitcoin Destiny Line model:
6.1. Value-Based Entry Strategy
Investors can optimize their investment strategy by deploying investable cash either as a lump sum or on a dollar-cost averaging basis upon the display of a value indicator (Up-Triangles) which signals the highest probability for value entries.
6.2. Long-Term Position Strategy
As an alternative, investors may prefer to continue deploying investable funds while cooler colors (green or blue) are displayed on the value map, indicating favorable conditions for long-term positions.
6.3. Scaling Out Strategy
Investors may choose to scale out some of their investment upon the display of a risk indicator (circles) reducing exposure to potential downturns.
6.4. Portfolio Rebalancing Strategy
A sound strategy can also be to follow a portfolio rebalancing approach by deploying available investable cash upon the display of a value indicator. Rebalance the portfolio to maintain 25% in cash upon the display of a risk indicator. Adjust this ratio as subsequent risk indicators are triggered, deploying available cash upon future value signals.
6.5. Bear Market Strategy
In a bear market, traders may seek short positions upon the display of the Continued Downward Momentum indicator (Down Triangles) capitalizing on declining market trends.
6.6. Short-Term Trading Strategy
Traders can use hourly or 4-hourly data along with the daily Price Rails and Heatmap Bar for short-term positions. They may incorporate other preferred indicators such as RSI for entry/exit decisions.
7. Recommendations and Disclosures
Investors are recommended to take a prudent approach. It is not recommended for investors to scale out completely or significantly reduce the largest portion of their long-term Bitcoin positions in hopes of buying back at lower prices unless they have a compelling reason to do so. The future market conditions may not replicate past opportunities making this strategy uncertain. However, scaling out a smaller portion such as 25% can offer a high potential for an asymmetric risk-reward ratio. This approach is likely to provide a higher risk-adjusted return compared to traditional dollar-cost averaging or random lump sum adjustments.
The Bitcoin Destiny Line Model leverages 13.5 years of available price data across four complete Bitcoin market cycles.
While each additional cycle enriches the model's robustness and enhances the reliability of its forecasts, it is crucial for users to understand that historical trends are indicative of probable future directions and potential price ranges. Users should be cognizant that past performance is not a definitive predictor of future results and should not be the sole basis for investment decisions.
Quarterly Theory ICT 01 [TradingFinder] XAMD + Q1-Q4 Sessions🔵 Introduction
The Quarterly Theory ICT indicator is an advanced analytical system based on the concepts of ICT (Inner Circle Trader) and fractal time. It divides time into quarterly periods and accurately determines entry and exit points for trades by using the True Open as the starting point of each cycle. This system is applicable across various time frames including annual, monthly, weekly, daily, and even 90-minute sessions.
Time is divided into four quarters: in the first quarter (Q1), which is dedicated to the Accumulation phase, the market is in a consolidation state, laying the groundwork for a new trend; in the second quarter (Q2), allocated to the Manipulation phase (also known as Judas Swing), sudden price changes and false moves occur, marking the true starting point of a trend change; the third quarter (Q3) is dedicated to the Distribution phase, during which prices are broadly distributed and price volatility peaks; and the fourth quarter (Q4), corresponding to the Continuation/Reversal phase, either continues or reverses the previous trend.
By leveraging smart algorithms and technical analysis, this system identifies optimal price patterns and trading positions through the precise detection of stop-run and liquidity zones.
With the division of time into Q1 through Q4 and by incorporating key terms such as Quarterly Theory ICT, True Open, Accumulation, Manipulation (Judas Swing), Distribution, Continuation/Reversal, ICT, fractal time, smart algorithms, technical analysis, price patterns, trading positions, stop-run, and liquidity, this system enables traders to identify market trends and make informed trading decisions using real data and precise analysis.
♦ Important Note :
This indicator and the "Quarterly Theory ICT" concept have been developed based on material published in primary sources, notably the articles on Daye( traderdaye ) and Joshuuu . All copyright rights are reserved.
🔵 How to Use
The Quarterly Theory ICT strategy is built on dividing time into four distinct periods across various time frames such as annual, monthly, weekly, daily, and even 90-minute sessions. In this approach, time is segmented into four quarters, during which the phases of Accumulation, Manipulation (Judas Swing), Distribution, and Continuation/Reversal appear in a systematic and recurring manner.
The first segment (Q1) functions as the Accumulation phase, where the market consolidates and lays the foundation for future movement; the second segment (Q2) represents the Manipulation phase, during which prices experience sudden initial changes, and with the aid of the True Open concept, the real starting point of the market’s movement is determined; in the third segment (Q3), the Distribution phase takes place, where prices are widely dispersed and price volatility reaches its peak; and finally, the fourth segment (Q4) is recognized as the Continuation/Reversal phase, in which the previous trend either continues or reverses.
This strategy, by harnessing the concepts of fractal time and smart algorithms, enables precise analysis of price patterns across multiple time frames and, through the identification of key points such as stop-run and liquidity zones, assists traders in optimizing their trading positions. Utilizing real market data and dividing time into Q1 through Q4 allows for a comprehensive and multi-level technical analysis in which optimal entry and exit points are identified by comparing prices to the True Open.
Thus, by focusing on keywords like Quarterly Theory ICT, True Open, Accumulation, Manipulation, Distribution, Continuation/Reversal, ICT, fractal time, smart algorithms, technical analysis, price patterns, trading positions, stop-run, and liquidity, the Quarterly Theory ICT strategy acts as a coherent framework for predicting market trends and developing trading strategies.
🔵b]Settings
Cycle Display Mode: Determines whether the cycle is displayed on the chart or on the indicator panel.
Show Cycle: Enables or disables the display of the ranges corresponding to each quarter within the micro cycles (e.g., Q1/1, Q1/2, Q1/3, Q1/4, etc.).
Show Cycle Label: Toggles the display of textual labels for identifying the micro cycle phases (for example, Q1/1 or Q2/2).
Table Display Mode: Enables or disables the ability to display cycle information in a tabular format.
Show Table: Determines whether the table—which summarizes the phases (Q1 to Q4)—is displayed.
Show More Info: Adds additional details to the table, such as the name of the phase (Accumulation, Manipulation, Distribution, or Continuation/Reversal) or further specifics about each cycle.
🔵 Conclusion
Quarterly Theory ICT provides a fractal and recurring approach to analyzing price behavior by dividing time into four quarters (Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4) and defining the True Open at the beginning of the second phase.
The Accumulation, Manipulation (Judas Swing), Distribution, and Continuation/Reversal phases repeat in each cycle, allowing traders to identify price patterns with greater precision across annual, monthly, weekly, daily, and even micro-level time frames.
Focusing on the True Open as the primary reference point enables faster recognition of potential trend changes and facilitates optimal management of trading positions. In summary, this strategy, based on ICT principles and fractal time concepts, offers a powerful framework for predicting future market movements, identifying optimal entry and exit points, and managing risk in various trading conditions.
On Chart Reverse RSI cyclic smoothed + DivergenceThis indicator is based on the amazing work of (@whentotrade) Lars von Theinen's RSI cyclic smoothed (cRSI). More information on the original indicator and how to use it can be found below.
The On Chart Reverse cRSI is a visual representational spin of the cRSI or (RSI cyclic smoothed, by Lars von Theinen) you all know and love with the addition of two key features, that in conjunction can be used to greatly assist the end-user in their decision making for entry, exit and risk management.
The first feature is the visual reverse engineered calculations of the HighBand, LowBand, as well as the user defined Upper and Lower Levels (70 & 30 by default), compared to the cRSI Level, in relation to the current price level as the point of divergence, which at a glance can then be used to visually see on the chart the closing price level needed in order to cross the cRSI either under or over the afore mentioned levels.
The second feature is the addition of my advanced On Chart divergence script in order to display regular as well as hidden divergences on the cRSI compared to the price level, in order to help the end-user train their eyes to spot them more accurately.
Divergence colors and description:
-------------------------------------
Green : Regular Bullish Divergence
White : Hidden Bullish Divergence
Red : Regular Bearish Divergence
Orange : Hidden Bearish Divergence
Optional Settings Include:
-----------------------------
1.) Show/Hide Reverse Levels
2.) Change the Reverse Levels Text Size
3.) Change the Reverse Levels Text Color
4.) Change the Reverse Levels Text Left Margin
5.) Change the Reverse Levels Decimal value
6.) Show/Hide the Reverse Levels Currency
7.) Show/hide the cRSI Divergence lines
8.) Change the cRSI Divergence line offset
9.) Show/hide the cRSI Divergence arrows
10.) Change the Regular Bullish Divergence Color
11.) Change the Hidden Bullish Divergence Color
12.) Change the Regular Bearish Divergence Color
13.) Change the Hidden Bearish Divergence Color
14.) Change the cRSI Divergence lookback (No. of bars to lookback)
RSI cyclic smoothed (cRSI)
-----------------------------
The RSI cyclic smoothed (cRSI) indicator is developed by Lars von Theinen and is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at mozilla.org Copyright (C) 2017 CC BY, whentotrade / Lars von Thienen. For more details on the cRSI Indicator:
RSI cyclic smoothed v2
The RSI cyclic smoothed (cRSI) is an enhancement of the classic RSI , adding
1) additional smoothing according to the market vibration,
2) adaptive upper and lower bands according to the cyclic memory and
3) using the current dominant cycle length as input for the indicator.
It is much more responsive to market moves than the basic RSI . The indicator uses the dominant cycle as input to optimize signal, smoothing, and cyclic memory. To get more in-depth information on the cyclic-smoothed RSI indicator, please read Decoding The Hidden Market Rhythm - Part 1: Dynamic Cycles (2017), Chapter 4: "Fine-tuning technical indicators." You need to derive the dominant cycle as input parameter for the cycle length as described in chapter 4.
Please PM me to obtain access.
Reverse RSI cyclic smoothed + DivergenceThis indicator is based on the amazing work of (whentotrade) Lars von Theinen's RSI cyclic smoothed (cRSI). More information on the original indicator and how to use it can be found below.
The Reverse cRSI is in essence the same cRSI or (RSI cyclic smoothed, by Lars von Theinen) you all know and love with the addition of two key features, that in conjunction can be used to greatly assist the end-user in their decision making for entry, exit and risk management.
The first feature is a reverse engineered calculation of the HighBand, LowBand, as well as the user defined Upper and Lower Levels (70 & 30 by default), compared to the cRSI Level, in relation to the current price level as the point of divergence, which at a glance can then be used to determine the closing price level needed in order to cross the cRSI either under or over the afore mentioned levels.
The second feature is the addition of my advanced divergence script to display regular as well as hidden divergences on the cRSI, in order to help the end-user train their eyes to spot them more accurately.
Divergence colors and description:
-------------------------------------
Green : Regular Bullish Divergence
White : Hidden Bullish Divergence
Red : Regular Bearish Divergence
Orange : Hidden Bearish Divergence
Optional Settings Include:
-----------------------------
1.) Show/Hide Reverse Levels
2.) Change the Reverse Levels Text Size
3.) Change the Reverse Levels Text Color
4.) Change the Reverse Levels Text Left Margin
5.) Change the Reverse Levels Decimal value
6.) Show/Hide the Reverse Levels Currency
7.) Show/hide the cRSI Divergence lines
8.) Change the cRSI Divergence line offset
9.) Show/hide the cRSI Divergence arrows
10.) Change the cRSI Divergence arrow offset
11.) Change the Regular Bullish Divergence Color
12.) Change the Hidden Bullish Divergence Color
13.) Change the Regular Bearish Divergence Color
14.) Change the Hidden Bearish Divergence Color
15.) Change the cRSI Divergence lookback (No. of bars to lookback)
RSI cyclic smoothed (cRSI)
-----------------------------
The RSI cyclic smoothed (cRSI) indicator is developed by Lars von Theinen and is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at mozilla.org Copyright (C) 2017 CC BY, whentotrade / Lars von Thienen.
RSI cyclic smoothed v2
The RSI cyclic smoothed (cRSI) is an enhancement of the classic RSI , adding
1) additional smoothing according to the market vibration,
2) adaptive upper and lower bands according to the cyclic memory and
3) using the current dominant cycle length as input for the indicator.
It is much more responsive to market moves than the basic RSI . The indicator uses the dominant cycle as input to optimize signal, smoothing, and cyclic memory. To get more in-depth information on the cyclic-smoothed RSI indicator, please read Decoding The Hidden Market Rhythm - Part 1: Dynamic Cycles (2017), Chapter 4: "Fine-tuning technical indicators." You need to derive the dominant cycle as input parameter for the cycle length as described in chapter 4.
Wavemeter [theEccentricTrader]█ OVERVIEW
This indicator is a representation of my take on price action based wave cycle theory. The indicator counts the number of confirmed wave cycles, keeps a rolling tally of the average wave length, wave height and frequency, and displays the statistics in a table. The indicator also displays the current wave measurements as an optional feature.
█ CONCEPTS
Green and Red Candles
• A green candle is one that closes with a high price equal to or above the price it opened.
• A red candle is one that closes with a low price that is lower than the price it opened.
Swing Highs and Swing Lows
• A swing high is a green candle or series of consecutive green candles followed by a single red candle to complete the swing and form the peak.
• A swing low is a red candle or series of consecutive red candles followed by a single green candle to complete the swing and form the trough.
Peak and Trough Prices (Basic)
• The peak price of a complete swing high is the high price of either the red candle that completes the swing high or the high price of the preceding green candle, depending on which is higher.
• The trough price of a complete swing low is the low price of either the green candle that completes the swing low or the low price of the preceding red candle, depending on which is lower.
Historic Peaks and Troughs
The current, or most recent, peak and trough occurrences are referred to as occurrence zero. Previous peak and trough occurrences are referred to as historic and ordered numerically from right to left, with the most recent historic peak and trough occurrences being occurrence one.
Wave Cycles
A wave cycle is here defined as a complete two-part move between a swing high and a swing low, or a swing low and a swing high. As can be seen in the example above, the first swing high or swing low will set the course for the sequence of wave cycles that follow; a chart that begins with a swing low will form its first complete wave cycle upon the formation of the first complete swing high and vice versa.
Wave Length
Wave length is here measured in terms of bar distance between the start and end of a wave cycle. For example, if the current wave cycle ends on a swing low the wave length will be the difference in bars between the current swing low and current swing high. In such a case, if the current swing low completes on candle 100 and the current swing high completed on candle 95, we would simply subtract 95 from 100 to give us a wave length of 5 bars.
Average wave length is here measured in terms of total bars as a proportion as total waves. The average wavelength is calculated by dividing the total candles by the total wave cycles.
Wave Height
Wave height is here measured in terms of current range. For example, if the current peak price is 100 and the current trough price is 80, the wave height will be 20.
Amplitude
Amplitude is here measured in terms of current range divided by two. For example if the current peak price is 100 and the current trough price is 80, the amplitude would be calculated by subtracting 80 from 100 and dividing the answer by 2 to give us an amplitude of 10.
Frequency
Frequency is here measured in terms of wave cycles per second (Hertz). For example, if the total wave cycle count is 10 and the amount of time it has taken to complete these 10 cycles is 1-year (31,536,000 seconds), the frequency would be calculated by dividing 10 by 31,536,000 to give us a frequency of 0.00000032 Hz.
Range
The range is simply the difference between the current peak and current trough prices, generally expressed in terms of points or pips.
█ FEATURES
Inputs
Show Sample Period
Start Date
End Date
Position
Text Size
Show Current
Show Lines
Table
The table is colour coded, consists of two columns and, as many as, nine rows. Blue cells display the total wave cycle count and average wave measurements. Green cells display the current wave measurements. And the final row in column one, coloured black, displays the sample period. Both current wave measurements and sample period cells can be hidden at the user’s discretion.
Lines
For a visual aid to the wave cycles, I have added a blue line that traces out the waves on the chart. These lines can be hidden at the user’s discretion.
█ HOW TO USE
The indicator is intended for research purposes, strategy development and strategy optimisation. I hope it will be useful in helping to gain a better understanding of the underlying dynamics at play on any given market and timeframe.
For example, the indicator can be used to compare the current range and frequency with the average range and frequency, which can be useful for gauging current market conditions versus historic and getting a feel for how different markets and timeframes behave.
█ LIMITATIONS
Some higher timeframe candles on tickers with larger lookbacks such as the DXY , do not actually contain all the open, high, low and close (OHLC) data at the beginning of the chart. Instead, they use the close price for open, high and low prices. So, while we can determine whether the close price is higher or lower than the preceding close price, there is no way of knowing what actually happened intra-bar for these candles. And by default candles that close at the same price as the open price, will be counted as green. You can avoid this problem by utilising the sample period filter.
The green and red candle calculations are based solely on differences between open and close prices, as such I have made no attempt to account for green candles that gap lower and close below the close price of the preceding candle, or red candles that gap higher and close above the close price of the preceding candle. I can only recommend using 24-hour markets, if and where possible, as there are far fewer gaps and, generally, more data to work with. Alternatively, you can replace the scenarios with your own logic to account for the gap anomalies, if you are feeling up to the challenge.
It is also worth noting that the sample size will be limited to your Trading View subscription plan. Premium users get 20,000 candles worth of data, pro+ and pro users get 10,000, and basic users get 5,000. If upgrading is currently not an option, you can always keep a rolling tally of the statistics in an excel spreadsheet or something of the like.
Quarterly Cycles [Dango]Introducing the Comprehensive Quarterly Cycle Indicator, a powerful and original tool designed to enhance your understanding of price action through the lens of quarterly cycles. This innovative script is a novel creation that accurately incorporates the nuances and complexities often overlooked by those who claim to have a quarterly cycle indicator.
Key Features:
- Displays 90-minute, daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly quarterly cycles
- Employs advanced algorithms and a deep understanding of cycle theory to precisely map out cycles
- Accounts for subtle nuances ignored by other indicators
How It Works:
The Comprehensive Quarterly Cycle Indicator meticulously calculates and visualizes various quarterly cycles based on a proprietary algorithm that determines the presence and absence of quarters. This intricate formula takes into account multiple factors and complex relationships between time and price to accurately identify when a quarter is present and when it isn't.
By leveraging this unique approach, the indicator can provide a more precise and reliable representation of quarterly cycles compared to other methods. The advanced algorithms employed by the script go beyond simple trend detection or scalping techniques, offering a comprehensive view of the underlying market rhythms.
The indicator's visual representation of quarterly cycles serves as an invaluable aid in recognizing time-based patterns, turning points, and potential trend shifts. Through the lens of this indicator, traders can gain a deeper understanding of how time influences market dynamics and can make more informed decisions based on this knowledge.
Intended Use:
The Comprehensive Quarterly Cycle Indicator is designed primarily for educational purposes, helping traders develop a keen intuition for interpreting price action through the lens of quarterly cycles. By studying the indicator's output alongside price movements, users can gain valuable insights into market dynamics and timing.
Please note that while this indicator is a powerful learning tool, it should not be considered a standalone trading system. As with any technical analysis tool, it is essential to combine its insights with other forms of analysis and risk management principles.
Limitations:
The indicator's accuracy may be impacted by extreme market volatility or unusual events
Quarterly cycles are one of many factors influencing price action and should not be relied upon in isolation
By offering a novel and accurate representation of quarterly cycles, this indicator aims to empower traders in their journey to understand and navigate the markets effectively. However, as with any trading tool, individual results may vary, and past performance does not guarantee future outcomes.
Disclaimer:
This indicator is provided for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a financial professional before making any trading decisions.
Privacy of Code
Please note that the underlying logic and specific calculations used in the proprietary algorithm are not disclosed to protect the intellectual property of the script. The main reason for keeping these details hidden is due to the intricate formula used to determine when a quarter is actually present and when it isn't, taking into account various factors and complex relationships between time and price.
The proprietary algorithm is the result of extensive research, testing, and refinement, forming the core of the Comprehensive Quarterly Cycle Indicator's unique approach to identifying and visualizing quarterly cycles. By keeping the specific calculations confidential, the script maintains its competitive edge and ensures the protection of its intellectual property.
Despite not disclosing the exact details, the description aims to provide a clear understanding of the script's functionality, its unique approach to identifying quarterly cycles, and the potential benefits for traders. The information provided offers insights into the key features, general methodology, and advantages of utilizing the Comprehensive Quarterly Cycle Indicator in your trading analysis.
Cyclical IndicatorThis tool is an oscillator that detects cycles.
It is built on the basis of our centered moving averages.
It is fully configurable in design moreover it is possible to set the centering through the offset !
Offset 2, half cycle centering.
Offset 4, 1/4 cycle centering.
Recommended setting :
Offset 4
Cyclical ratio 2
WD Gann: Vertical Lines for Predefined Days/Bars AgoThis Pine Script draws vertical lines on the chart at specific time intervals, inspired by WD Gann’s theories of time cycles . WD Gann, a famous trader, believed that market movements were influenced by predictable time cycles. This script enables traders to visualize these key time cycles on the chart by placing vertical lines at predefined intervals (in bars ago), helping to identify potential turning points in the market.
The time intervals used in this script are inspired by Gann’s work, as well as astrological and numerological principles , which many traders believe influence market behavior . You can customize which time intervals (such as 3, 7, 9, 21, etc.) you want to track by enabling or disabling specific vertical lines on the chart.
Key Features:
Time Cycles Based on Gann’s Theory: Draws vertical lines at significant time intervals such as 3, 7, 9, 21, 27 bars ago, which are commonly used by Gann traders.
Astrological & Numerological Significance: The predefined intervals also align with key numerological and astrological values, allowing for a broader perspective on market cycles.
Customizable Intervals: You can choose which time intervals to display by enabling or disabling checkboxes for each cycle, allowing flexibility in chart analysis.
Visual Labels: Each vertical line is labeled with its corresponding "bars ago" value, providing clear reference points for the selected time cycles.
What Users Can Do:
Track and analyze market movements based on time cycles that are significant to Gann’s theory, as well as numerological and astrological influences.
Enable or disable vertical lines for specific cycles, like the 3-bar cycle, 9-bar cycle, or 365-bar cycle, depending on the intervals that align with your trading strategy.
Combine with other technical analysis tools and Gann techniques (e.g., Gann Angles, Gann Fans, or Square of Nine) for a more comprehensive trading approach.
This tool is designed for traders who believe in the power of time cycles to influence market behavior, and is especially useful for predicting turning points or key price movements based on these cycles.
Financial Astrology Jupiter LongitudeJupiter energy influence the expansion, enthusiasm, joviality, optimism, devotion, administration and judgement. Is associated with people of nobility and good social position: ministers, bishops, religious leaders, judges, bankers, lawyers, merchants, influencers and so forth. This cycle is relevant for the industries of consumer goods, travel, publishing, higher education, banking, gambling and legal.
For most of the crypto-currencies is hard to analyse the impact of the Jupiter transit across different zodiac signs due to the emergent nature of this disrupting financial industry, many coins was launched in 2017 and have not experienced the complete Jupiter cycle. However, in BTCUSD we almost have a complete orbit and through the buy/sell frequency analysis we have observed the following patters: the bullish zodiac signs was Virgo, Libra, Capricorn and Aquarius, the bearish was Leo, and Scorpio. We was not able to obtain price data for the period when Jupiter transited Aries to Cancer so we are pending to analyze the trend direction during those zodiac positions.
This indicator provides Jupiter longitude since 2010 so will be limited to the analysis of 1 cycle, however we noted that the periods of retrogradation and stationary could give interesting trading signals. We encourage you to analyse this zodiac sign / speed phases cycles in different markets and share with us your observations, leave us a comment with your research outcomes. Happy research!
Note: The Jupiter tropical longitude indicator is based on an ephemeris array that covers years 2010 to 2030, prior or after this years the longitude is not available, this daily ephemeris are based on UTC time so in order to align properly with the price bars times you should set UTC as your chart reference timezone.
RSI cyclic smoothed v2Cyclic Smoothed Relative Strength Indicator
The cyclic smoothed RSI indicator is an enhancement of the classic RSI , adding
additional smoothing according to the market vibration,
adaptive upper and lower bands according to the cyclic memory and
using the current dominant cycle length as input for the indicator.
The cRSI is used like a standard indicator. The chart highlights trading signals where the signal line crosses above or below the adaptive lower/upper bands. It is much more responsive to market moves than the basic RSI.
You can also review this short idea where BTC went down from 4300 USD (3 Sept 17) to 3700 USD (15 Sept 17) after the idea was posted and showed the clear short exit with the next low:
The indicator uses the dominant cycle as input to optimize signal, smoothing and cyclic memory. To get more in-depth information on the cyclic-smoothed RSI indicator, please read Chapter 4 "Fine tuning technical indicators" of the book "Decoding the Hidden Market Rhythm, Part 1" available at your favorite book store.
This is the open-source code version of the requested script already published as protected indicator back in 2017 "RSI cyclic smoothed". Now made public as v2. Would love to receive feedback and see your ideas.
Financial Astrology Sun LongitudeFinancial astrology is a branch of mundane astrology that research the correlations of planet cycles with market prices, this indicator developed by the Financial Astrology Research Group provides the visualization of the Sun Tropical Zodiac Longitude to support that astrology traders can study multiple markets within the powerful Trading View UI to detect potential cyclical patterns in price action that are connected with the cosmic rhythm of the Sun.
The Sun have been very relevant cycle among all ancient civilizations such as Maya, Aztec, Inca, this cyclical move is the fundamental frequency of our life's due to the fact that our calendar year is a model from this cycle. Chinese astrologers and W.D. Gann was aware of the powerful predictive power of the solar terms which is a representation of the most relevant weather transitions within the Sun longitude path.
With this indicator we try to ease the research work of the amazing community of astro-traders that prior to this indicators needed to create hundreds of manual annotations on the markets price charts to visualize the Sun zodiac position within a long period of time in order to research potential cycles. That manual work is over. Let's move faster in our cycles research!
We encourage all traders using astrology to continue their research, please share your ideas of astro cycles trading strategies and contribute your experiments at our Github exploration projects: github.com
Note: The Sun longitude is based on an ephemeris array that covers years 2010 to 2030, prior or after this years the longitude is not available, this daily ephemeris are based on UTC time so in order to align properly with the price bars times you should set UTC as your chart reference timezone.
RS Cycles [QuantVue]The RS Cycles indicator is a technical analysis tool that expands upon traditional relative strength (RS) by incorporating Beta-based adjustments to provide deeper insights into a stock's performance relative to a benchmark index. It identifies and visualizes positive and negative performance cycles, helping traders analyze trends and make informed decisions.
Key Concepts:
Traditional Relative Strength (RS):
Definition: A popular method to compare the performance of a stock against a benchmark index (e.g., S&P 500).
Calculation: The traditional RS line is derived as the ratio of the stock's closing price to the benchmark's closing price.
RS=Stock Price/Benchmark Price
Usage: This straightforward comparison helps traders spot periods of outperformance or underperformance relative to the market or a specific sector.
Beta-Adjusted Relative Strength (Beta RS):
Concept: Traditional RS assumes equal volatility between the stock and benchmark, but Beta RS accounts for the stock's sensitivity to market movements.
Calculation:
Beta measures the stock's return relative to the benchmark's return, adjusted by their respective volatilities.
Alpha is then computed to reflect the stock's performance above or below what Beta predicts:
Alpha=Stock Return−(Benchmark Return×β)
Significance: Beta RS highlights whether a stock outperforms the benchmark beyond what its Beta would suggest, providing a more nuanced view of relative strength.
RS Cycles:
The indicator identifies positive cycles when conditions suggest sustained outperformance:
Short-term EMA (3) > Mid-term EMA (10) > Long-term EMA (50).
The EMAs are rising, indicating positive momentum.
RS line shows upward movement over a 3-period window.
EMA(21) > 0 confirms a broader uptrend.
Negative cycles are marked when the opposite conditions are met:
Short-term EMA (3) < Mid-term EMA (10) < Long-term EMA (50).
The EMAs are falling, indicating negative momentum.
RS line shows downward movement over a 3-period window.
EMA(21) < 0 confirms a broader downtrend.
This indicator combines the simplicity of traditional RS with the analytical depth of Beta RS, making highlighting true relative strength and weakness cycles.
Elliptic bands
Why Elliptic?
Unlike traditional indicators (e.g., Bollinger Bands with constant standard deviation multiples), the elliptic model introduces a cyclical, non-linear variation in band width. This reflects the idea that price movements often follow rhythmic patterns, widening and narrowing in a predictable yet dynamic way, akin to natural market cycles.
Buy: When the price enters from below (green triangle).
Sell: When the price enters from above (red triangle).
Inputs
MA Length: 50 (This is the period for the central Simple Moving Average (SMA).)
Cycle Period: 50 (This is the elliptic cycle length.)
Volatility Multiplier: 2.0 (This value scales the band width.)
Mathematical Foundation
The indicator is based on the ellipse equation. The basic formula is:
Ellipse Equation:
(x^2) / (a^2) + (y^2) / (b^2) = 1
Solving for y:
y = b * sqrt(1 - (x^2) / (a^2))
Parameters Explained:
a: Set to 1 (normalized).
x: Varies from -1 to 1 over the period.
b: Calculated as:
ta.stdev(close, MA Length) * Volatility Multiplier
(This represents the standard deviation of the close prices over the MA period, scaled by the volatility multiplier.)
y (offset): Represents the band distance from the moving average, forming the elliptic cycle.
Behavior
Bands:
The bands are narrow at the cycle edges (when the offset is 0) and become widest at the midpoint (when the offset equals b).
Trend:
The central moving average (MA) shows the overall trend direction, while the bands adjust according to the volatility.
Signals:
Standard buy and sell signals are generated when the price interacts with the bands.
Practical Use
Trend Identification:
If the price is above the MA, it indicates an uptrend; if below, a downtrend.
Support and Resistance:
The elliptic bands act as dynamic support and resistance levels.
Narrowing bands may signal potential trend reversals.
Breakouts:
