Indicadores e estratégias
NASDAQ Best Time for TradingThis indicator highlights the best trading time for NASDAQ based on the US Eastern Time (ET) session.
The recommended trading window starts at 8:45 AM ET, after the first 15 minutes of market open, which can produce random price movements and increased risk of losses.
You can select between two session end times: 10:00 AM ET or 12:00 PM ET, depending on your personal trading preference.
SCCThis script combines Trendlines, Vector Candles and EMAs with specific alerts for when Vectors and the 50EMA cross.
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Engulfing DetectorThis script detects classic candlestick reversal patterns known as Engulfing formations:
Bullish Engulfing: A green candle fully engulfs the previous red candle.
Bearish Engulfing: A red candle fully engulfs the previous green candle.
🔎 Features:
Works on any time frame or instrument.
Optional filter to ignore overly large or irregular candles.
Visual signals on the chart (BE/SE labels).
Built-in alerts for automation or notification.
✅ Recommended usage:
For intraday trading, this indicator performs best on the 5-minute chart of the Nasdaq (NQ) between 9:45 AM and 1:00 PM ET (15:45–19:00 CET).
💡 Suggested trading approach:
Optimized for scalping with short-term trades and small take-profits around +0.10%.
Math by Thomas Swing RangeMath by Thomas Swing Range is a simple yet powerful tool designed to visually highlight key swing levels in the market based on a user-defined lookback period. It identifies the highest high, lowest low, and calculates the midpoint between them — creating a clear range for swing trading strategies.
These levels can help traders:
Spot potential support and resistance zones
Analyze price rejection near range boundaries
Frame mean-reversion or breakout setups
The indicator continuously updates and extends these lines into the future, making it easier to plan and manage trades with visual clarity.
🛠️ How to Use
Add to Chart:
Apply the indicator on any timeframe and asset (works best on higher timeframes like 1H, 4H, or Daily).
Configure Parameters:
Lookback Period: Number of candles used to detect the highest high and lowest low. Default is 20.
Extend Lines by N Bars: Number of future bars the levels should be projected to the right.
Interpret Lines:
🔴 Red Line: Swing High (Resistance)
🟢 Green Line: Swing Low (Support)
🔵 Blue Line: Midpoint (Mean level — useful for equilibrium-based strategies)
Trade Ideas:
Bounce trades from swing high/low zones.
Breakout confirmation if price closes strongly outside the range.
Reversion trades if price moves toward the midpoint after extreme moves.
Bollinger Bands - Multi Symbol Alert (Miu)This script extends the classic Bollinger Bands indicator with support for up to 8 user-defined symbols and a unique alert system.
Unlike traditional Bollinger Band indicators, it allows traders to configure alerts across multiple assets without keeping the indicator visible on the chart, making it ideal for passive multi-asset monitoring.
What it does:
This script calculates Bollinger Bands using a 100-period simple moving average and a standard deviation multiplier of 3 (or any input you set in the settings panel).
For each selected symbol, the upper and lower bands are retrieved using request.security() and monitored for breakouts.
Alerts are triggered when the closing price of the selected symbol breaks above the upper band (Overbought) or below the lower band (Oversold) — at the bar close.
How to use it:
1) Add the indicator to your chart.
2) Open the settings panel.
3) Select up to 8 symbols to monitor.
4) After setting parameters, click the three dots next to the indicator title and choose "Add Alert on...".
5) Name your alert and confirm.
6) If you don’t wish to keep the indicator visible, you can remove it from the chart — alerts will still function as expected.
Alert message includes:
- Symbol name (e.g., BTC, ETH, LTC)
- (OB) for overbought or (OS) for oversold
- Symbol’s price at the alert moment
Technical note:
This script uses request.security() to fetch Bollinger Band levels and closing prices from up to 8 selected symbols in real time.
Feel free to leave your feedback or suggestions in the comments section below.
Enjoy!
Spectral Order Flow Resonance (SOFR) Spectral Order Flow Resonance (SOFR)
See the Market’s Hidden Rhythms—Trade the Resonance, Not the Noise!
The Spectral Order Flow Resonance (SOFR) is a next-generation tool for traders who want to go beyond price and volume, tapping into the underlying “frequency signature” of order flow itself. Instead of chasing lagging signals or reacting to surface-level volatility, SOFR lets you visualize and quantify the real-time resonance of market activity—helping you spot when the crowd is in sync, and when the regime is about to shift.
What Makes SOFR Unique?
Not Just Another Oscillator:
SOFR doesn’t just measure momentum or volume. It applies spectral analysis (using Fast Fourier Transform) to normalized order flow, extracting the dominant cycles and their resonance strength. This reveals when the market is harmonizing around key frequencies—often the precursor to major moves.
Regime Detection, Not Guesswork:
By tracking harmonic alignment and phase coherence across multiple Fibonacci-based frequencies, SOFR identifies when the market is entering a bullish, bearish, or neutral resonance regime. This is visualized with a dynamic dashboard and info line, so you always know the current state at a glance.
Dynamic Dashboard:
The on-chart dashboard color-codes each key metric—regime, dominant frequency, harmonic alignment, phase coherence, and energy concentration—so you can instantly gauge the strength and direction of the current resonance. No more guesswork or clutter.
Universal Application:
Works on any asset, any timeframe, and in any market—futures, stocks, crypto, forex. If there’s order flow, SOFR can reveal its hidden structure.
How Does It Work?
Order Flow Normalization:
SOFR calculates the net buying/selling pressure and normalizes it using a rolling mean and standard deviation, making the signal robust across assets and timeframes.
Spectral Analysis:
The script applies FFT to the normalized order flow, extracting the magnitude and phase of several key frequencies (typically Fibonacci numbers). This allows you to see which cycles are currently dominating the market.
Resonance & Regime Logic:
When multiple frequencies align and exceed a dynamic resonance threshold, and phase coherence is high, SOFR detects a “resonance regime”—bullish, bearish, or neutral. This is when the market is most likely to experience a strong, sustained move.
Visual Clarity:
The indicator plots each frequency’s magnitude, highlights the dominant one, and provides a real-time dashboard with color-coded metrics for instant decision-making.
SOFR Dashboard Metrics Explained
Regime:
What it means: The current “state” of the market as detected by SOFR—Bullish, Bearish, or Neutral.
Why it matters: The regime tells you whether the market’s order flow is resonating in a way that favors upward moves (Bullish), downward moves (Bearish), or is out of sync (Neutral). This helps you align your trades with the prevailing market force, or stand aside when there’s no clear edge.
Dominant Freq:
What it means: The most powerful frequency (cycle length, in bars) currently detected in the order flow.
Why it matters: Markets often move in cycles. The dominant frequency shows which cycle is currently driving price action, helping you time entries and exits with the market’s “heartbeat.”
Harmonic Align:
What it means: The number of key frequencies (out of 3) that are currently in resonance (above threshold).
Why it matters: When multiple frequencies align, it signals that different groups of traders (with different time horizons) are acting in concert. This increases the probability of a strong, sustained move.
Phase Coh.:
What it means: A measure (0–100%) of how “in sync” the phases of the key frequencies are.
Why it matters: High phase coherence means the market’s cycles are reinforcing each other, not cancelling out. This is a classic signature of trending or explosive moves.
Energy Conc.:
What it means: The concentration of spectral energy in the dominant frequency, relative to the average.
Why it matters: High energy concentration means the market’s activity is focused in one cycle, increasing the odds of a decisive move. Low concentration means the market is scattered and less predictable.
How to Use
Bullish Regime:
When the dashboard shows a green regime and high harmonic alignment, the market is in a bullish resonance—look for long opportunities or trend continuations.
Bearish Regime:
When the regime is red and alignment is high, the market is in a bearish resonance—look for short opportunities or trend continuations.
Neutral Regime:
When the regime is gray or alignment is low, the market is out of sync—consider waiting for clearer signals or using other tools.
Combine with Your Strategy:
Use SOFR as a confirmation tool, a filter for trend/range conditions, or as a standalone regime detector. The dashboard’s color-coded metrics help you instantly spot when the market is entering or exiting resonance.
Inputs Explained
FFT Window Length :
Controls the number of bars used for spectral analysis. Higher values smooth the signal, lower values make it more sensitive.
Order Flow Period:
Sets the lookback for normalizing order flow. Shorter periods react faster, longer periods are smoother.
Fibonacci Frequencies:
Choose which cycles to analyze. Default values (5, 8, 13) capture common market rhythms.
Resonance Threshold:
Sets how strong a frequency’s signal must be to count as “in resonance.” Lower for more signals, higher for stricter filtering.
Signal Smoothing & Amplify:
Fine-tune the display for your chart and asset.
Dashboard & Info Line Toggles:
Show or hide the on-chart dashboard and info line as needed.
Why This Matters
Most indicators show you what just happened. SOFR shows you when the market is entering a state of resonance—when crowd behavior is most likely to produce powerful, sustained moves. By visualizing the hidden structure of order flow, you gain a tactical edge over traders who only see the surface.
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always use proper risk management.
Use with discipline. Trade your edge.
— Dskyz, for DAFE Trading Systems
FVG (Nephew sam remake)Hello i am making my own FVG script inspired by Nephew Sam as his fvg code is not open source. My goal is to replicate his Script and then add in alerts and more functions. Thus, i spent few days trying to code. There is bugs such as lower time frame not showing higher time frame FVG.
This script automatically detects and visualizes Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) — imbalances between demand and supply — across multiple timeframes (15-minute, 1-hour, and 4-hour).
15m chart shows:
15m FVGs (green/red boxes)
1H FVGs (lime/maroon)
4H FVGs (faded green/red with borders) (Bugged For now i only see 1H appearing)
1H chart shows:
1H FVGs
4H FVGs
4H chart shows:
4H FVGs only
There is the function to auto close FVG when a future candle fully disrespected it.
You're welcome to:
🔧 Customize the appearance: adjust box colors, transparency, border style
🧪 Add alerts: e.g., when price enters or fills a gap
📅 Expand to Daily/Weekly: just copy the logic and plug in "D" or "W" as new layers
📈 Build confluence logic: combine this with order blocks, liquidity zones, or ICT concepts
🧠 Experiment with entry signals: e.g., candle confirmation on return to FVG
🚀 Improve performance: if you find a lighter way to track gaps, feel free to optimize!
MACD Crossover with Price Action and AlertsThe MACD should use the default parameters (12, 26, 9) for fast EMA, slow EMA, and signal EMA, respectively, applied to the Close price. Instead of simple MACD crossovers, the indicator should analyze price action in relation to the MACD histogram to generate signals. Specifically: 1. BUY signal: Generate a buy signal (an up arrow displayed below the low of the signal bar in green color) when the MACD histogram crosses above zero AND the price action shows a bullish engulfing pattern (the current candle's body completely engulfs the previous candle's body). 2. SELL signal: Generate a sell signal (a down arrow displayed above the high of the signal bar in red color) when the MACD histogram crosses below zero AND the price action shows a bearish engulfing pattern (the current candle's body completely engulfs the previous candle's body). The arrows should be non-repainting, meaning that once an arrow is plotted on a bar, it should not disappear or change position as the chart updates. The indicator should also plot the MACD line, signal line, and histogram using their default calculations. The MACD line should be blue, the signal line should be orange, and the histogram should be displayed using green bars for positive values and red bars for negative values. The indicator should also have customizable inputs for the MACD fast EMA period, slow EMA period, signal EMA period and engulfing pattern check enabled/disabled. If engulfing pattern check disabled, the indicator will generate signals based only on MACD histogram crossing zero.
Fast Lane, Slow Lane (Dem)Fast Lane, Slow Lane script based on Barbara Star's trading style.
Simple trend advisor where green indicates the fast lane and red indicates the slow lane.
When the candles enter the green lane you know you have decent upwards momentum and as you fall below into the blank area you know momentum is fading and vice versa.
Green Bullish momentum, Red Bearish momentum.
Conditional Supertrend (RSI < 40)Supertrend is calculated based on ATR and multiplier (factor).
RSI is used as a condition to display the Supertrend only when RSI is below 40.
The line is colored green for bullish trend and red for bearish, but it only appears when RSI < 40.
ATH & 52 Wk High (Dem)All Time High & 52 week High indicator.
Simple script to indicate if a stock is at a 52 week high (yellow square)
or at an All Time High (yellow diamond)
Indicates based on the closing price of the current candle.
Relative Timing Indicator (Dem)Relative Timing Indicator
Set at a scale of 0-100
When the indicator is above the yellow 50 midline the oscillator is green and when the indicator is below the midline it is red. The further away from the midline the stronger the trend.
Use to assist with assessing when it is a good time to enter or exit a trade.
Macrodoser MA CloudsThis indicator is an updated version of the Ripster EMA Clouds indicator with the following modifications:
1. Ability to select additional moving average types beyond the SMA & EMA.
2. Ability to change the colors of both the clouds and the ma lines to suit your stylistic preferences.
3. Different default settings for EMAs that I personally prefer.
4. Update script version from 4 to 6 for purely OCD reasons.
Enjoy!
Price/MA Deviation AngleThis indicator visualizes the angular deviation of price from a selected moving average (default: 21 EMA). It calculates the angle, in degrees, formed by the vertical distance between price and the moving average — assuming a one-bar horizontal distance.
Positive angles indicate upward deviation (bullish pressure).
Negative angles reflect downward deviation (bearish pressure).
0° represents perfect alignment between price and the MA.
±45° thresholds can be used as reference for strong momentum.
This tool offers a normalized, intuitive perspective on price momentum using geometric interpretation rather than price-to-price delta.
Dual Bollinger BandsIndicator Name:
Double Bollinger Bands (2-9 & 2-20)
Description:
This indicator plots two sets of Bollinger Bands on a single chart for enhanced volatility and trend analysis:
Fast Bands (2-9 Length) – Voilet
More responsive to short-term price movements.
Useful for spotting quick reversals or scalping opportunities.
Slow Bands (2-20 Length) – Black
Smoother, trend-following bands for longer-term context.
Helps confirm broader market direction.
Both bands use the standard settings (2 deviations, SMA basis) for consistency. The transparent fills improve visual clarity while keeping the chart uncluttered.
Use Cases:
Trend Confirmation: When both bands expand together, it signals strong momentum.
Squeeze Alerts: A tight overlap suggests low volatility before potential breakouts.
Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Compare short-term vs. long-term volatility in one view.
How to Adjust:
Modify lengths (2-9 and 2-20) in the settings.
Change colors or transparency as needed.
Why Use This Script?
No Repainting – Uses standard Pine Script functions for reliability.
Customizable – Easy to tweak for different trading styles.
Clear Visuals – Color-coded bands with background fills for better readability.
Ideal For:
Swing traders, day traders, and volatility scalpers.
Combining short-term and long-term Bollinger Band strategies.
Bear Market Probability Model# Bear Market Probability Model: A Multi-Factor Risk Assessment Framework
The Bear Market Probability Model represents a comprehensive quantitative framework for assessing systemic market risk through the integration of 13 distinct risk factors across four analytical categories: macroeconomic indicators, technical analysis factors, market sentiment measures, and market breadth metrics. This indicator synthesizes established financial research methodologies to provide real-time probabilistic assessments of impending bear market conditions, offering institutional-grade risk management capabilities to retail and professional traders alike.
## Theoretical Foundation
### Historical Context of Bear Market Prediction
Bear market prediction has been a central focus of financial research since the seminal work of Dow (1901) and the subsequent development of technical analysis theory. The challenge of predicting market downturns gained renewed academic attention following the market crashes of 1929, 1987, 2000, and 2008, leading to the development of sophisticated multi-factor models.
Fama and French (1989) demonstrated that certain financial variables possess predictive power for stock returns, particularly during market stress periods. Their three-factor model laid the groundwork for multi-dimensional risk assessment, which this indicator extends through the incorporation of real-time market microstructure data.
### Methodological Framework
The model employs a weighted composite scoring methodology based on the theoretical framework established by Campbell and Shiller (1998) for market valuation assessment, extended through the incorporation of high-frequency sentiment and technical indicators as proposed by Baker and Wurgler (2006) in their seminal work on investor sentiment.
The mathematical foundation follows the general form:
Bear Market Probability = Σ(Wi × Ci) / ΣWi × 100
Where:
- Wi = Category weight (i = 1,2,3,4)
- Ci = Normalized category score
- Categories: Macroeconomic, Technical, Sentiment, Breadth
## Component Analysis
### 1. Macroeconomic Risk Factors
#### Yield Curve Analysis
The inclusion of yield curve inversion as a primary predictor follows extensive research by Estrella and Mishkin (1998), who demonstrated that the term spread between 3-month and 10-year Treasury securities has historically preceded all major recessions since 1969. The model incorporates both the 2Y-10Y and 3M-10Y spreads to capture different aspects of monetary policy expectations.
Implementation:
- 2Y-10Y Spread: Captures market expectations of monetary policy trajectory
- 3M-10Y Spread: Traditional recession predictor with 12-18 month lead time
Scientific Basis: Harvey (1988) and subsequent research by Ang, Piazzesi, and Wei (2006) established the theoretical foundation linking yield curve inversions to economic contractions through the expectations hypothesis of the term structure.
#### Credit Risk Premium Assessment
High-yield credit spreads serve as a real-time gauge of systemic risk, following the methodology established by Gilchrist and Zakrajšek (2012) in their excess bond premium research. The model incorporates the ICE BofA High Yield Master II Option-Adjusted Spread as a proxy for credit market stress.
Threshold Calibration:
- Normal conditions: < 350 basis points
- Elevated risk: 350-500 basis points
- Severe stress: > 500 basis points
#### Currency and Commodity Stress Indicators
The US Dollar Index (DXY) momentum serves as a risk-off indicator, while the Gold-to-Oil ratio captures commodity market stress dynamics. This approach follows the methodology of Akram (2009) and Beckmann, Berger, and Czudaj (2015) in analyzing commodity-currency relationships during market stress.
### 2. Technical Analysis Factors
#### Multi-Timeframe Moving Average Analysis
The technical component incorporates the well-established moving average convergence methodology, drawing from the work of Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992), who provided empirical evidence for the profitability of technical trading rules.
Implementation:
- Price relative to 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages
- Moving average convergence/divergence analysis
- Multi-timeframe MACD assessment (daily and weekly)
#### Momentum and Volatility Analysis
The model integrates Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis following Wilder's (1978) original methodology, combined with maximum drawdown analysis based on the work of Magdon-Ismail and Atiya (2004) on optimal drawdown measurement.
### 3. Market Sentiment Factors
#### Volatility Index Analysis
The VIX component follows the established research of Whaley (2009) and subsequent work by Bekaert and Hoerova (2014) on VIX as a predictor of market stress. The model incorporates both absolute VIX levels and relative VIX spikes compared to the 20-day moving average.
Calibration:
- Low volatility: VIX < 20
- Elevated concern: VIX 20-25
- High fear: VIX > 25
- Panic conditions: VIX > 30
#### Put-Call Ratio Analysis
Options flow analysis through put-call ratios provides insight into sophisticated investor positioning, following the methodology established by Pan and Poteshman (2006) in their analysis of informed trading in options markets.
### 4. Market Breadth Factors
#### Advance-Decline Analysis
Market breadth assessment follows the classic work of Fosback (1976) and subsequent research by Brown and Cliff (2004) on market breadth as a predictor of future returns.
Components:
- Daily advance-decline ratio
- Advance-decline line momentum
- McClellan Oscillator (Ema19 - Ema39 of A-D difference)
#### New Highs-New Lows Analysis
The new highs-new lows ratio serves as a market leadership indicator, based on the research of Zweig (1986) and validated in academic literature by Zarowin (1990).
## Dynamic Threshold Methodology
The model incorporates adaptive thresholds based on rolling volatility and trend analysis, following the methodology established by Pagan and Sossounov (2003) for business cycle dating. This approach allows the model to adjust sensitivity based on prevailing market conditions.
Dynamic Threshold Calculation:
- Warning Level: Base threshold ± (Volatility × 1.0)
- Danger Level: Base threshold ± (Volatility × 1.5)
- Bounds: ±10-20 points from base threshold
## Professional Implementation
### Institutional Usage Patterns
Professional risk managers typically employ multi-factor bear market models in several contexts:
#### 1. Portfolio Risk Management
- Tactical Asset Allocation: Reducing equity exposure when probability exceeds 60-70%
- Hedging Strategies: Implementing protective puts or VIX calls when warning thresholds are breached
- Sector Rotation: Shifting from growth to defensive sectors during elevated risk periods
#### 2. Risk Budgeting
- Value-at-Risk Adjustment: Incorporating bear market probability into VaR calculations
- Stress Testing: Using probability levels to calibrate stress test scenarios
- Capital Requirements: Adjusting regulatory capital based on systemic risk assessment
#### 3. Client Communication
- Risk Reporting: Quantifying market risk for client presentations
- Investment Committee Decisions: Providing objective risk metrics for strategic decisions
- Performance Attribution: Explaining defensive positioning during market stress
### Implementation Framework
Professional traders typically implement such models through:
#### Signal Hierarchy:
1. Probability < 30%: Normal risk positioning
2. Probability 30-50%: Increased hedging, reduced leverage
3. Probability 50-70%: Defensive positioning, cash building
4. Probability > 70%: Maximum defensive posture, short exposure consideration
#### Risk Management Integration:
- Position Sizing: Inverse relationship between probability and position size
- Stop-Loss Adjustment: Tighter stops during elevated risk periods
- Correlation Monitoring: Increased attention to cross-asset correlations
## Strengths and Advantages
### 1. Comprehensive Coverage
The model's primary strength lies in its multi-dimensional approach, avoiding the single-factor bias that has historically plagued market timing models. By incorporating macroeconomic, technical, sentiment, and breadth factors, the model provides robust risk assessment across different market regimes.
### 2. Dynamic Adaptability
The adaptive threshold mechanism allows the model to adjust sensitivity based on prevailing volatility conditions, reducing false signals during low-volatility periods and maintaining sensitivity during high-volatility regimes.
### 3. Real-Time Processing
Unlike traditional academic models that rely on monthly or quarterly data, this indicator processes daily market data, providing timely risk assessment for active portfolio management.
### 4. Transparency and Interpretability
The component-based structure allows users to understand which factors are driving risk assessment, enabling informed decision-making about model signals.
### 5. Historical Validation
Each component has been validated in academic literature, providing theoretical foundation for the model's predictive power.
## Limitations and Weaknesses
### 1. Data Dependencies
The model's effectiveness depends heavily on the availability and quality of real-time economic data. Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) updates may have lags that could impact model responsiveness during rapidly evolving market conditions.
### 2. Regime Change Sensitivity
Like most quantitative models, the indicator may struggle during unprecedented market conditions or structural regime changes where historical relationships break down (Taleb, 2007).
### 3. False Signal Risk
Multi-factor models inherently face the challenge of balancing sensitivity with specificity. The model may generate false positive signals during normal market volatility periods.
### 4. Currency and Geographic Bias
The model focuses primarily on US market indicators, potentially limiting its effectiveness for global portfolio management or non-USD denominated assets.
### 5. Correlation Breakdown
During extreme market stress, correlations between risk factors may increase dramatically, reducing the model's diversification benefits (Forbes and Rigobon, 2002).
## References
Akram, Q. F. (2009). Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar. Energy Economics, 31(6), 838-851.
Ang, A., Piazzesi, M., & Wei, M. (2006). What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth? Journal of Econometrics, 131(1-2), 359-403.
Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2006). Investor sentiment and the cross‐section of stock returns. The Journal of Finance, 61(4), 1645-1680.
Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593-1636.
Barber, B. M., & Odean, T. (2001). Boys will be boys: Gender, overconfidence, and common stock investment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(1), 261-292.
Beckmann, J., Berger, T., & Czudaj, R. (2015). Does gold act as a hedge or a safe haven for stocks? A smooth transition approach. Economic Modelling, 48, 16-24.
Bekaert, G., & Hoerova, M. (2014). The VIX, the variance premium and stock market volatility. Journal of Econometrics, 183(2), 181-192.
Brock, W., Lakonishok, J., & LeBaron, B. (1992). Simple technical trading rules and the stochastic properties of stock returns. The Journal of Finance, 47(5), 1731-1764.
Brown, G. W., & Cliff, M. T. (2004). Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market. Journal of Empirical Finance, 11(1), 1-27.
Campbell, J. Y., & Shiller, R. J. (1998). Valuation ratios and the long-run stock market outlook. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 24(2), 11-26.
Dow, C. H. (1901). Scientific stock speculation. The Magazine of Wall Street.
Estrella, A., & Mishkin, F. S. (1998). Predicting US recessions: Financial variables as leading indicators. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(1), 45-61.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1989). Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds. Journal of Financial Economics, 25(1), 23-49.
Forbes, K. J., & Rigobon, R. (2002). No contagion, only interdependence: measuring stock market comovements. The Journal of Finance, 57(5), 2223-2261.
Fosback, N. G. (1976). Stock market logic: A sophisticated approach to profits on Wall Street. The Institute for Econometric Research.
Gilchrist, S., & Zakrajšek, E. (2012). Credit spreads and business cycle fluctuations. American Economic Review, 102(4), 1692-1720.
Harvey, C. R. (1988). The real term structure and consumption growth. Journal of Financial Economics, 22(2), 305-333.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
Magdon-Ismail, M., & Atiya, A. F. (2004). Maximum drawdown. Risk, 17(10), 99-102.
Nickerson, R. S. (1998). Confirmation bias: A ubiquitous phenomenon in many guises. Review of General Psychology, 2(2), 175-220.
Pagan, A. R., & Sossounov, K. A. (2003). A simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18(1), 23-46.
Pan, J., & Poteshman, A. M. (2006). The information in option volume for future stock prices. The Review of Financial Studies, 19(3), 871-908.
Taleb, N. N. (2007). The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. Random House.
Whaley, R. E. (2009). Understanding the VIX. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 35(3), 98-105.
Wilder, J. W. (1978). New concepts in technical trading systems. Trend Research.
Zarowin, P. (1990). Size, seasonality, and stock market overreaction. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 25(1), 113-125.
Zweig, M. E. (1986). Winning on Wall Street. Warner Books.
Enhanced False Breakout Pro## Enhanced False Breakout Pro - Trading Indicator
**A sophisticated technical analysis tool that identifies high-probability false breakout reversals with advanced confluence scoring and multi-factor validation.**
### 📊 **What This Indicator Does**
This indicator detects "false breakouts" - situations where price appears to break through key support or resistance levels but quickly reverses, creating excellent trading opportunities. Unlike basic false breakout indicators, this enhanced version uses multiple confirmation filters to significantly improve signal quality and reduce false positives.
### 🎯 **Key Features**
**Advanced Signal Filtering:**
- **Volume Confirmation**: Filters signals based on above-average volume activity
- **RSI Divergence Detection**: Identifies momentum divergences that strengthen reversal signals
- **Volatility Filter**: Uses ATR to ensure signals occur during meaningful market movements
- **Multi-Timeframe Analysis**: Optional higher timeframe trend confirmation
- **Confluence Scoring**: Rates each signal 1-10 based on multiple technical factors
**Smart Detection Logic:**
- Tracks new highs/lows over configurable periods
- Monitors multiple breakout attempts in the same direction
- Validates reversals within specified time windows
- Filters minimum breakout size to avoid noise
**Enhanced Visuals:**
- Dynamic labels showing signal type and confluence scores
- Color-coded chart bars for signal confirmation
- Dashed lines connecting breakout points to reversal confirmations
- Information table displaying active filter status
### ⚙️ **Customizable Settings**
**Main Settings:**
- False Breakout Period (default: 20)
- Minimum bars between signals (default: 5)
- Signal validity period (default: 5)
**Advanced Filters:**
- Volume multiplier threshold (default: 1.5x average)
- RSI divergence parameters (14-period, 70/30 levels)
- ATR volatility filter (14-period, 1.0x multiplier)
- Multi-timeframe trend confirmation
**Signal Quality:**
- Minimum confluence score threshold (1-10)
- Aggressive mode for more sensitive detection
- Multiple smoothing options (WMA, HMA, EMA)
### 📈 **How to Use**
1. **Signal Identification**: Look for triangle markers with accompanying labels
2. **Quality Assessment**: Higher confluence scores indicate stronger signals
3. **Entry Timing**: Enter when price confirms the false breakout reversal
4. **Risk Management**: Use the identified support/resistance levels for stops
**Signal Types:**
- 🔻 **False Breakout Up**: Price failed to break below support - potential long setup
- 🔺 **False Breakout Down**: Price failed to break above resistance - potential short setup
### 💡 **Trading Strategy**
False breakouts often represent some of the highest-probability trading setups because they:
- Trap retail traders on the wrong side
- Create liquidity for institutional entries
- Often lead to strong moves in the opposite direction
- Provide clear risk/reward levels
### 🔧 **Best Practices**
- Use on higher timeframes (1H+) for more reliable signals
- Combine with overall market trend analysis
- Set minimum confluence score to 4+ for higher quality signals
- Enable volume and volatility filters for cleaner signals
- Consider multi-timeframe confirmation for swing trades
### ⚠️ **Risk Disclaimer**
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always practice proper risk management and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
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*This enhanced version builds upon the original False Breakout indicator with significant improvements in signal quality, filtering, and user experience.*
Multi-Session ORBThe Multi-Session ORB Indicator is a customizable Pine Script (version 6) tool designed for TradingView to plot Opening Range Breakout (ORB) levels across four major trading sessions: Sydney, Tokyo, London, and New York. It allows traders to define specific ORB durations and session times in Central Daylight Time (CDT), making it adaptable to various trading strategies.
Key Features:
1. Customizable ORB Duration: Users can set the ORB duration (default: 15 minutes) via the inputMax parameter, determining the time window for calculating the high and low of each session’s opening range.
2. Flexible Session Times: The indicator supports user-defined session and ORB times for:
◦ Sydney: Default ORB (17:00–17:15 CDT), Session (17:00–01:00 CDT)
◦ Tokyo: Default ORB (19:00–19:15 CDT), Session (19:00–04:00 CDT)
◦ London: Default ORB (02:00–02:15 CDT), Session (02:00–11:00 CDT)
◦ New York: Default ORB (08:30–08:45 CDT), Session (08:30–16:00 CDT)
3. Session-Specific ORB Levels: For each session, the indicator calculates and tracks the high and low prices during the specified ORB period. These levels are updated dynamically if new highs or lows occur within the ORB timeframe.
4. Visual Representation:
◦ ORB high and low lines are plotted only during their respective session times, ensuring clarity.
◦ Each session’s lines are color-coded for easy identification:
▪ Sydney: Light Yellow (high), Dark Yellow (low)
▪ Tokyo: Light Pink (high), Dark Pink (low)
▪ London: Light Blue (high), Dark Blue (low)
▪ New York: Light Purple (high), Dark Purple (low)
◦ Lines are drawn with a linewidth of 2 and disappear when the session ends or if the timeframe is not intraday (or exceeds the ORB duration).
5. Intraday Compatibility: The indicator is optimized for intraday timeframes (e.g., 1-minute to 15-minute charts) and only displays when the chart’s timeframe multiplier is less than or equal to the ORB duration.
How It Works:
• Session Detection: The script uses the time() function to check if the current bar falls within the user-defined ORB or session time windows, accounting for all days of the week.
• ORB Logic: At the start of each session’s ORB period, the script initializes the high and low based on the first bar’s prices. It then updates these levels if subsequent bars within the ORB period exceed the current high or fall below the current low.
• Plotting: ORB levels are plotted as horizontal lines during the respective session, with visibility controlled to avoid clutter outside session times or on incompatible timeframes.
Use Case:
Traders can use this indicator to identify key breakout levels for each trading session, facilitating strategies based on price action around the opening range. The flexibility to adjust ORB and session times makes it suitable for various markets (e.g., forex, stocks, or futures) and time zones.
Limitations:
• The indicator is designed for intraday timeframes and may not display on higher timeframes (e.g., daily or weekly) or if the timeframe multiplier exceeds the ORB duration.
• Time inputs are in CDT, requiring users to adjust for their local timezone or market requirements.
• If you need to use this for GC/CL/SPY/QQQ you have to adjust the times by one hour.
This indicator is ideal for traders focusing on session-based breakout strategies, offering clear visualization and customization for global market sessions.
Bitcoin Open Interest [SAKANE]Bitcoin Open Interest
— Unveiling the True Flow of Capital
PurposeVisualize and compare Bitcoin open interest (OI) from CME and Binance, the leading derivatives exchanges, in a single intuitive chart, providing traders with clear insights into crypto market capital dynamics.
Background & MotivationIn the 24/7 crypto market, price movements alone reveal only part of the story. Open interest (OI)—the total outstanding futures contracts—offers critical clues to the market’s next move. Yet, accessing and interpreting OI data is challenging:
CME Constraints: Commitment of Traders (COT) reports are weekly, and standalone BTC1! or BTC2! OI is noisy due to contract rollovers, obscuring true OI changes.
Existing Tool Limitations: Most OI indicators are fixed to either USD or BTC, limiting flexible analysis.
This indicator overcomes these hurdles, enabling seamless comparison of CME and Binance OI to track the market’s “capital center of gravity” in real time.
Key Features
Synthetic CME OI: Combines BTC1! and BTC2! to deliver high-accuracy OI, eliminating rollover noise.
Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Displays daily CME OI as pseudo-candlestick (OHLC) on any timeframe (e.g., 4H), allowing intuitive capital flow tracking across timeframes.
CME/Binance One-Click Toggle: Instantly compare institutional-driven CME and retail-driven Binance OI.
USD/BTC Flexibility: Switch between BTC (real demand) and USD (margin) perspectives for OI analysis.
Robust Design: Concise, global-scope code ensures stability and adaptability to TradingView updates.
Insights & Use Cases
Holistic Market Sentiment: Analyze capital flows by region and exchange for a multidimensional view.
Signal Detection: E.g., a sharp drop in CME OI during a sell-off may signal institutional withdrawal.
Retail Trends: A surge in Binance OI suggests retail-driven inflows.
Event-Driven Insights: E.g., during a hypothetical April 2025 “Trump Tariff Shock,” instantly identify which exchange drives capital shifts.
Unique ValueUnlike price-centric indicators, this tool focuses on capital flow (OI). It’s the only indicator offering one-click multi-timeframe and multi-exchange OI comparison, empowering traders to uncover the market’s “true intent” and gain a strategic edge.
ConclusionBitcoin Open Interest makes the market’s hidden capital movements accessible to all. By capturing market dynamics and pinpointing the “leading forces” during events, it sets a new standard for traders seeking a revolutionary perspective.
CM_Ult_MacD_MTF (80min)Gold Futures Pro Signal is a powerful TradingView indicator designed specifically for traders of COMEX Gold Futures (GC1!). Built with professional precision, it combines multi-timeframe MACD momentum and RSI filters to deliver high-probability buy and sell signals based on institutional-grade logic.
This script automatically detects bullish or bearish momentum by analyzing 80-minute MACD crossovers and validating them using RSI oversold/overbought conditions on the current chart timeframe. Visual cues such as dynamic background color, histogram intensity, and label markers make it easy to identify trade opportunities at a glance—ideal for both swing and intraday strategies.
You can customize signal sensitivity using adjustable MACD and RSI parameters. Additionally, you can toggle between current or higher timeframe MACD analysis to adapt the signals to your trading style. Works especially well when overlaid on 15m to 1H charts for aligning entries with higher-timeframe direction.
