Fractal Breakout Trend Following StrategyOverview
The Fractal Breakout Trend Following Strategy is a trend-following system which utilizes the Willams Fractals and Alligator to execute the long trades on the fractal's breakouts which have a high probability to be the new uptrend phase beginning. This system also uses the normalized Average True Range indicator to filter trades after a large moves, because it's more likely to see the trend continuation after a consolidation period. Strategy can execute only long trades.
Unique Features
Trend and volatility filtering system: Strategy uses Williams Alligator to filter the counter-trend fractals breakouts and normalized Average True Range to avoid the trades after large moves, when volatility is high
Configurable Trading Periods: Users can tailor the strategy to specific market windows, adapting to different market conditions.
Flexible Risk Management: Users can choose the stop-loss percent (by default = 3%) for trades, but strategy also has the dynamic stop-loss level using down fractals.
Methodology
The strategy places stop order at the last valid fractal breakout level. Validity of this fractal is defined by the Williams Alligator indicator. If at the moment of time when price breaking the last fractal price is higher than Alligator's teeth line (8 period SMA shifted 5 bars in the future) this is a valid breakout. Moreover strategy has the additional volatility filtering system using normalized ATR. It calculates the average normalized ATR for last user-defined number of bars and if this value lower than the user-defined threshold value the long trade is executed.
When trade is opened, script places the stop loss at the price higher of two levels: user defined stop-loss from the position entry price or down fractal validation level. The down fractal is valid with the rule, opposite as the up fractal validation. Price shall break to the downside the last down fractal below the Willians Alligator's teeth line.
Strategy has no fixed take profit. Exit level changes with the down fractal validation level. If price is in strong uptrend trade is going to be active until last down fractal is not valid. Strategy closes trade when price hits the down fractal validation level.
Risk Management
The strategy employs a combined approach to risk management:
It allows positions to ride the trend as long as the price continues to move favorably, aiming to capture significant price movements. It features a user-defined stop-loss parameter to mitigate risks based on individual risk tolerance. By default, this stop-loss is set to a 3% drop from the entry point, but it can be adjusted according to the trader's preferences.
Justification of Methodology
This strategy leverages Williams Fractals to open long trade when price has broken the key resistance level to the upside. This resistance level is the last up fractal and is shall be broken above the Williams Alligator's teeth line to be qualified as the valid breakout according to this strategy. The Alligator filtering increases the probability to avoid the false breakouts against the current trend.
Moreover strategy has an additional filter using Average True Range(ATR) indicator. If average value of ATR for the last user-defined number of bars is lower than user-defined threshold strategy can open the long trade according to open trade condition above. The logic here is following: we want to open trades after period of price consolidation inside the range because before and after a big move price is more likely to be in sideways, but we need a trend move to have a profit.
Another one important feature is how the exit condition is defined. On the one hand, strategy has the user-defined stop-loss (3% below the entry price by default). It's made to give users the opportunity to restrict their losses according to their risk-tolerance. On the other hand, strategy utilizes the dynamic exit level which is defined by down fractal activation. If we assume the breaking up fractal is the beginning of the uptrend, breaking down fractal can be the start of downtrend phase. We don't want to be in long trade if there is a high probability of reversal to the downside. This approach helps to not keep open trade if trend is not developing and hold it if price continues going up.
Backtest Results
Operating window: Date range of backtests is 2023.01.01 - 2024.05.01. It is chosen to let the strategy to close all opened positions.
Commission and Slippage: Includes a standard Binance commission of 0.1% and accounts for possible slippage over 5 ticks.
Initial capital: 10000 USDT
Percent of capital used in every trade: 30%
Maximum Single Position Loss: -3.19%
Maximum Single Profit: +24.97%
Net Profit: +3036.90 USDT (+30.37%)
Total Trades: 83 (28.92% win rate)
Profit Factor: 1.953
Maximum Accumulated Loss: 963.98 USDT (-8.29%)
Average Profit per Trade: 36.59 USDT (+1.12%)
Average Trade Duration: 72 hours
These results are obtained with realistic parameters representing trading conditions observed at major exchanges such as Binance and with realistic trading portfolio usage parameters.
How to Use
Add the script to favorites for easy access.
Apply to the desired timeframe and chart (optimal performance observed on 4h and higher time frames and the BTC/USDT).
Configure settings using the dropdown choice list in the built-in menu.
Set up alerts to automate strategy positions through web hook with the text: {{strategy.order.alert_message}}
Disclaimer:
Educational and informational tool reflecting Skyrex commitment to informed trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Test strategies in a simulated environment before live implementation
Fractalstrategy
Dollar cost averaging trading system (DCA)As investors, we often face the dilemma of willing high stock prices when we sell, but not when we buy. There are times when this dilemma causes investors to wait for a dip in prices, thereby potentially missing out on a continual rise. This is how investors get lured away from the markets and become tangled in the slippery slope of market timing, which is not advisable to a long-term investment strategy.
Skyrex developed a complex trading system based on dollar-cost averaging in Quick Fingers Luc's interpretation. It is a combinations of strategies which allows to systematically accumulate assets by investing scaled amounts of money at defined market cycle global support levels. Dollar-cost averaging can reduce the overall impact of price volatility and lower the average cost per asset thus even during market slumps only a small bounce is required to reach take profit.
The strategy script monitors a chart price action and identifies bases as they form. When bases are reached the script provides entry actions. During price action development an asset value can go lower and in this way the script will perform safety entries at each subsequent accumulation levels. When weighted average entry price reaches target profit the script will perform a take profit action.
Bases are identified as pivot lows in a fractal pattern and validated by an adjustable decrease/rise percentage to ensure significancy of identified bases. To qualify a pivot low, the indicator will perform the following validation:
Validate the price rate of change on drops and bounces is above a given threshold amount.
Validate the volume at the low pivot point is above the volume moving average (using a given length).
Validate the volume amount is a given factor of magnitude above is above the volume moving average.
Validate the potential new base is not too close to the previous range by using a given price percent difference threshold amount.
A fractal pattern is a recurring pattern on a price chart that can predict reversals among larger, more chaotic price movements.
These basic fractals are composed of five or more bars. The rules for identifying fractals are as follows:
A bearish turning point occurs when there is a pattern with the highest high in the middle and two lower highs on each side.
A bullish turning point occurs when there is a pattern with the lowest low in the middle and two higher lows on each side.
Basic dollar-cost averaging approach is enhances by implementation of adjustable accumulation levels in order to provide opportunity of setting them at defined global support levels and Martingale volume coefficient to increase averaging effect. According to Quick Fingers Luc's principles trading principles we added volume validation of a base because it allows to confirm that the market is resistant to further price decrease.
The strategy supports traditional and cryptocurrency spot, futures, options and marginal trading exchanges. It works accurately with BTC, USD, USDT, ETH and BNB quote currencies. Best to use with 1H timeframe charts and limit orders. The strategy can be and should be configured for each particular asset according to its global support and resistance levels and price action cycles. You can modify levels and risk management settings to receive better performance
Advantages of this script:
Strategy has high net profit of 255% at backtests
Backtests show high accuracy around 75%
Low Drawdowns of around 14% at backtests
Strategy is sustainable to market slumps and can be used for long-term trading
The strategy provides a large number of entries which is good for diversification
Can be applied to any market and quote currency
Easy to configure user interface settings
How to use?
1. Apply strategy to a trading pair your are interested in using 1H timeframe chart
2. Configure the strategy: change layer values, order size multiple and take profit/stop loss values according to current market cycle stage
3. Set up a TradingView alert to trigger when strategy conditions are met
4. Strategy will send alerts when to enter and when to exit positions which can be applied to your portfolio using external trading platforms
5. Update settings once market conditions are changed using backtests on a monthly period
3SMMA + Fractal Strategy [Kintsugi Trading]What is the 3SMMA + Fractal Strategy?
This premium indicator was inspired by my desire to find and place high probability forex trades in any market, direction, or time of day.
Why Forex?
The Forex markets operate 24 hours, 5.5 days a week
Access to meaningful leverage
Ability to easily trade long or short
High liquidity
How to use it!
----- First, start by choosing Breakout Additional PIP Size, Stop Additional PIP Size, and Target Profit (TP) PIP Size. -----
- Breakout Additional PIP Size = Additional PIPs beyond the default strategy entry point.
- Stop Additional PIP Size = The default stop is above/below the signal candle, depending on trade direction. This input allows the user to target more or less PIPs as a stopping-out point.
- Target Profit (TP) PIP Size = Number of PIPs set at a target profit.
----- Next, we set the Session Filter. -----
Set the Timezone and Trade Session you desire. If no specific session is desired, simply leave the box unchecked.
----- Next, we set the Length of the 3 Smoothed Moving Averages. -----
Enter the Desired Moving Average Length:
Length 1 - Source
Length 2 - Source
Length 3 - Source
These inputs will determine whether the strategy looks for Long or Short positions.
----- Next, we set the Fractal Periods. -----
This user input re-programs the strategy to only allow for 'n' number of lower or higher candles on either side of a fractal signal.
For example: If the user inputs "5" for the number of Periods, Fractal indicator signals will only appear on candles with "5" candles higher or lower on both sides of the signal candle.
In combination with the 3 Smoothed Moving Averages, the Fractal signals help us determine when to take a trade and in what direction.
The strategy is essentially looking for trades going with the overall trend and placing potential trades after a low has been reached and is re-tested in the overall trend direction.
----- Finally, we backtest our ideas. -----
After using the 'Strategy Tester' tab on TradingView to thoroughly backtest your predictions you are ready to take it to the next level - Automated Trading!
This was my whole reason for creating the script. If you work a full-time job, live in a time zone that is hard to trade, or just don't have the patience, this will be a game-changer for you as it was for me.
Auto-Trading
When it comes to auto-trading this strategy I have included two options in the script that utilize the alert messages generated by TradingView.
*Note: Please trade on a demo account until you feel comfortable enough to use real money, and then please stick to 1%-2% of your total account value in risk per trade.*
AutoView
PineConnector
Good luck with your trading!
Fractal Breakout StrategyFractal
A type of pattern used in technical analysis to predict a reversal in the current trend. A fractal pattern consists of five bars and is identified when the price meets the following characteristics:
1. A shift from a downtrend to an uptrend occurs when the lowest bar is located in the middle of the pattern and two bars with successively higher lows are positioned around it.
2. A shift from an uptrend to a downtrend occurs when the highest bar is located in the middle of the pattern and two bars with successively lower highs are positioned around it.
