XU100/USDTRY 2023: Round-2

6 de jul. de 2023

XU100 of Turkey has many cliffs and valleys ahead. Central Bank's monthly rate hikes are expected to go on step by step, but it will not be sufficient enough to take down inflation as it is already too late, and an enormous pressure on TRY is still a threat for Turkish economy as the current account deficit continues to break records. (XU100/USDTRY: 10Y Fib + 6M Fib Trend)

23 de out. de 2023

Trade fechado: stop atingido

As XU100 has reached it's 310USD target far more quicker than I've expected, so as it's consolidation towards 270USD is more hasty, and more nasty. Now we are ahead of our schedule by two months. The sharp red candle on October cannot be regarded as a consolidation anymore. The combined showcase of Mr.Simsek and Mrs.Erkan does not seem to catch foreign investors' additional interest in XU100 enough, plus the current geopolitical turbulance seems to overheat the market's already hot situation. To make matters worse, in the name of the legendary battle against inflation, ongoing rate hikes and hardened credit lines will put extra pressure on the market from now on. So I'd pay attention to the bearish lean (10Y-Fib) with upcoming see-saw steps which can cause a lot of pain for at least several months.