Its carnage for XL down 13% today and now 91% fall from the top.
It certainly is blood-in-the-streets!
But hang on a minute - isn't that the time to buy? 🤔
This sell off appears to be a 5th wave selling climax of the trend since June.
And a 1:0.618 ABC that projects to $3.04 from the top.
If correct there should be an X wave short squeeze to follow.
If we assume the bottom is in this area; then an X wave should take price up to hit the 0.5 fibonacci retracement.
Commonly it will retrace further than the lower degree B wave that sits at $9.64.
In addition - the Weekly RSI is oversold for the first time in XL history.
All in all this looks ripe for a reversal.
Price could easily continue to sell off and overshoot the 0.618 marker and also I could be wrong and price will continue to the 1:1 @ $1.49 so I will be looking to see if it anchors to the fib and exits the pitchfork.
And then I think most likely is a reversal up to 0.618 to top around $14 where there is significant resistance.
Not advice.
Nota
Bit of a bounce as you'd expect after a selling climax, but price needs to escape this channel and the pitchfork for a reversal.
Nota
XL currently tied to the median line. Until it makes some progress east, this is a dangerous name.
Nota
XL is now a name i'm watching closely and going in a bit deeper on the chart:
I think it may be now printing a 1:0.618 (1,3,4) minute wave 5 that will overshoot past higher degree fibs and complete a selling climax in the area of $2.57.
Notice that price formed a wicked fakeout - out of the channel I highlighted previously, to then continue to impulse down. That fakeout I think is XL's rather bizarre wave 4 fractal and I have circle both minute and minor wave 4 fakeouts for reference.
If I'm confident in the selling climax I will sell OTM LEAP puts to take advantage of high implied volatility and later use my puts to pay for any calls I buy as volatility subsides moving into accumulation.
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