Bitcoin Daily Update (day 197)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.


My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30

Previous analysis / position: “BTC’ looks like it has found support and should bounce to the $6,750 area before continuing the downtrend. However, alts are currently breaking down and there is a good chance that they drag BTC’ down with them.” / Short ETH:USD. Took profit on 33% of position improving my average cost basis to $317.37 per ETH.
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,150 - $6,180 | R: $6,290
BTCUSDSHORTS: Appears to be pulling back and forming a lower high.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% (first time in a while it hasn’t been shorts paying longs)
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -3.87% | 26 = -5.85%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -8.96% | 128 = -11.55%
Volume: Still waiting for volume spike to set off the next move
FIB’s: 0.886 = $6,137 | 0.786 = $6,383
Candlestick analysis: Inverted hammer then a doji now a hammer is forming. Indicates indecision and upcoming volatility
Ichimoku Cloud: 4h C-Clamp
TD’ Sequential: Current candle will price flip if it closes > $6,181. Red 9 on the 4 hour.
Visible Range: Currently testing point of control (POC) with 2m - 1y lookback.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +/- 0 | 24h = +/- 0 | 1w = -6.52% | 2w = -10.34% | 1m = -0.63%
Bollinger Bands: After testing the bottom band a return to the MA at $6,739 is to be expected
Trendline: N/A
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: Up = $7,426 | Down = $5,866
On Balance Volume: Moving down with price / no div’s
ADX: Bear trend
Chaikin Money Flow: Pulling back from resistance
RSI (30 setting): W = 48.53 | D = 43.88
Stoch: Bearish re cross on weekly. Buy signal on daily.

Summary: There is nothing to do at this point other than to wait. Ideally we will get a sharp spike to $6,700 before breaking down. A shakeout before the breakdown would speed up the process and allow for some very good short entries.

If that doesn’t happen then we will likely continue to consolidate for days - weeks. Prolonged sideways action can drive traders up a wall and/or put us to sleep. Do not let that happen to you. Set price alerts and regularly check in on the charts.

If we get a bounce then be ready to short it. If we continue to consolidate then develop a plan for what you will do if we do not get a bounce. My suggestion is to key an eye on EOS. I am going to be shorting it against BTC' and ETH in the coming days/weeks.