XAU/USD – False Breakouts & Bearish Setup!

Why Might Gold Continue to Decline Further?

According to our latest two analyses, price fluctuations have verified our first thoughts. During the initial bullish attempt, gold achieved a new all-time high of $2946.80 before retracing back below the structure to $2918.46. The following day, gold rose to $2954.80 before falling below the structure to $2916.60.
For the time being, we have had two distinct fake bullish breakouts.

Given the significant price reactions in that zone, Gold is likely to continue its bearish trend up to $2880.

However, selling gold remains very risky due to the strong bullish trend. The price could potentially make a new all-time high and break $2955 if significant market manipulation occurs again. Based on the current data, it seems that Gold has a higher probability of moving down this time.

💰 Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis – 1H Chart
Gold attempted to break above a key resistance zone ($2,944 - $2,946) but faced two false breakouts, indicating weak bullish momentum. The price has started to reject this level, suggesting a potential downward move. 📉

🔑 Key Observations:
🚨 False Breakouts: Price failed to hold above resistance, showing weakness.
📉 Bearish Patterns: Price is forming lower highs, signaling potential downside.
🎯 Bearish Targets:

First Target: $2,916
Second Target: $2,906
Major Target: $2,889 - $2,882
Final Target: $2,871
📉 Potential Bearish Scenario:
✅ If the price breaks below $2,916, it could accelerate the bearish move.
✅ A break below $2,906 could confirm further downside pressure.
✅ The $2,882 - $2,871 support zone is the key area to watch for a reversal or continuation lower.

⚠️ Alternative Scenario:
📈 If the price reclaims $2,946, we could see another bullish attempt toward $2,954