Don’t be bearish on gold and don’t chase shorts either.
Atualizado
https://www.tradingview.com/x/2zPAR8iO/
The gold price needs to retreat to the $2,300 mark and then to $2,280. The gold price retreat is just an adjustment, not the end of the upward trend. The retreat is the time to go long. These are the two different voices in the market in recent days. Who is right and who is wrong, and what is the strength level, the final trend is the best proof.
A wave of retreat and adjustment, and multi-day consolidation, the gold price ushered in a strong rise yesterday, starting from the lowest $2,325, breaking through multiple resistances in succession during the session, reaching a high of $2,357, firmly locking the gains. As of this morning, the price rose to $2,374 again, and the strength continued.
The US ADP employment data for May was released yesterday, and the final value was recorded at 152,000, which was lower than the expected 175,000. After the data was released, not only the previous value was revised to 188,000, forming a favorable support for gold and silver
The subsequent Bank of Canada announced its interest rate decision, reducing the original interest rate from 5% to 4.75%, as expected by the market. Canada has become the first country in the G7 to enter a rate cut cycle. Officials also said that they are more confident that inflation will fall to the target of 2%. If it continues to develop, "it is reasonable to expect further rate cuts."
The amount of rate cuts is not important. What is important is that the move to cut interest rates means that the Fed's rate cut is coming. At this time, the market has reduced the probability of no rate cuts this year to 28%, and the probability of a rate cut to 25%. The expectation of a rate cut in September has been further strengthened. In my opinion, the Fed should cut interest rates in advance before September.
In addition to the above good news, the final value of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI index data for May released yesterday was 53.8, exceeding the expected value of 50.8 and the previous value of 49.4, setting a new high since August last year, but for now, the impact on the market seems limited, and the general direction of development will not change because of this data.
After the Bank of Canada cut interest rates yesterday, the European Central Bank will have its interest rate decision today. It seems that the market consensus is that the meeting will start cutting interest rates. In theory, it will be bad for gold, because the rate cut will lead to the depreciation of the euro, which will push up the dollar. But in reality and in the long run, it will definitely be good for gold, because the rate cut of the European Central Bank strengthens the rate cut of the Federal Reserve. Once the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates, no one can stop the rise of gold.
It needs to be emphasized again that the upward trend of gold is unquestionable. It is not because the price has risen now that we say this, but because we have been emphasizing in the decline that the retracement is the time to intervene and go long. At the same time, we have not chosen to be bearish and short in order to cater to the mainstream voice of the market. The current price increase further proves that our thinking is correct.
Strongly break upward, resistance turns into support, short-term support is around $2350, further support is around $2340, upper resistance is $2380, break through and stand firm, further look at the $2400 mark, this round of rise can be reconfirmed, $2400 mark is not the final goal, staged extension can see $2420-2430 area (not today), in short, we still maintain a bullish and long mindset, no bearish or short.
I hope you can give me suggestions on my analysis so that I can improve my progress, thank you
The gold price needs to retreat to the $2,300 mark and then to $2,280. The gold price retreat is just an adjustment, not the end of the upward trend. The retreat is the time to go long. These are the two different voices in the market in recent days. Who is right and who is wrong, and what is the strength level, the final trend is the best proof.
A wave of retreat and adjustment, and multi-day consolidation, the gold price ushered in a strong rise yesterday, starting from the lowest $2,325, breaking through multiple resistances in succession during the session, reaching a high of $2,357, firmly locking the gains. As of this morning, the price rose to $2,374 again, and the strength continued.
The US ADP employment data for May was released yesterday, and the final value was recorded at 152,000, which was lower than the expected 175,000. After the data was released, not only the previous value was revised to 188,000, forming a favorable support for gold and silver
The subsequent Bank of Canada announced its interest rate decision, reducing the original interest rate from 5% to 4.75%, as expected by the market. Canada has become the first country in the G7 to enter a rate cut cycle. Officials also said that they are more confident that inflation will fall to the target of 2%. If it continues to develop, "it is reasonable to expect further rate cuts."
The amount of rate cuts is not important. What is important is that the move to cut interest rates means that the Fed's rate cut is coming. At this time, the market has reduced the probability of no rate cuts this year to 28%, and the probability of a rate cut to 25%. The expectation of a rate cut in September has been further strengthened. In my opinion, the Fed should cut interest rates in advance before September.
In addition to the above good news, the final value of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI index data for May released yesterday was 53.8, exceeding the expected value of 50.8 and the previous value of 49.4, setting a new high since August last year, but for now, the impact on the market seems limited, and the general direction of development will not change because of this data.
After the Bank of Canada cut interest rates yesterday, the European Central Bank will have its interest rate decision today. It seems that the market consensus is that the meeting will start cutting interest rates. In theory, it will be bad for gold, because the rate cut will lead to the depreciation of the euro, which will push up the dollar. But in reality and in the long run, it will definitely be good for gold, because the rate cut of the European Central Bank strengthens the rate cut of the Federal Reserve. Once the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates, no one can stop the rise of gold.
It needs to be emphasized again that the upward trend of gold is unquestionable. It is not because the price has risen now that we say this, but because we have been emphasizing in the decline that the retracement is the time to intervene and go long. At the same time, we have not chosen to be bearish and short in order to cater to the mainstream voice of the market. The current price increase further proves that our thinking is correct.
Strongly break upward, resistance turns into support, short-term support is around $2350, further support is around $2340, upper resistance is $2380, break through and stand firm, further look at the $2400 mark, this round of rise can be reconfirmed, $2400 mark is not the final goal, staged extension can see $2420-2430 area (not today), in short, we still maintain a bullish and long mindset, no bearish or short.
I hope you can give me suggestions on my analysis so that I can improve my progress, thank you
Trade ativo
The international situation is intensifying again, so it is wise to be bullish on goldTrade ativo
Gold's adjustment has ended and has stabilized and is bullish. Gold remains bullish today.Trade ativo
The rise is only a matter of time, breaking through 2380 is a matter of time.Trade ativo
Intraday decline low bullish trend remains unchangedTrade ativo
Gold remains bullish, direction unchangedTrade ativo
The direction of gold remains unchanged, the upward trend has been formed, and small capital accounts can stop profit by themselvesTrade ativo
We are very close to our first target of 2380. I said that gold will definitely break through 2380. It is only a matter of time.Trade ativo
Let us wait and see whether gold can have a new breakthrough today.Trade fechado: objetivo atingido
Perfectly reached our target position 2380, so happy
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