XAU/USD Multi-Timeframe Comprehensive Analysis

11 de dez.

XAU/USD Multi-Timeframe Comprehensive Analysis with Key Success Factors (KSF)
Step 1: Technical Analysis with FVG and Price Detachment Integration

30-Minute Chart (Dominant Chart)

Current Candlestick Pattern
Pattern: A spinning top, signaling indecision near $2,694.
Context: Positioned slightly above EMA-8 ($2,692.09) and EMA-21 ($2,692.19), suggesting a potential bullish continuation after a pullback.
Trend Assessment
EMA-8, EMA-21, SMA-50:
Price is $2,694.03.
Detached by ~$2 from EMA-8, indicating moderate overextension.
Detached by ~$3 from EMA-21, indicating mean-reversion potential.
SMA-50 ($2,686.13) is well below the price, confirming medium-term bullish momentum.
Fair Value Gaps (FVG):
Bullish FVG (Support):
$2,691-$2,693 (untested): Aligns with EMA-21 and Fibonacci 38.2%.
$2,686-$2,688 (tested): Key secondary support near SMA-50.
Bearish FVG (Resistance):
$2,698-$2,700 (untested): Immediate resistance zone.
$2,704-$2,706 (tested): Aligns with Fibonacci 61.8% retracement.
Momentum Indicators:
RSI: At 54, maintaining a neutral-bullish stance.
Stochastic RSI: Bullish crossover near oversold territory (~20), favoring upward momentum.
ADX: At 33, indicating moderate trend strength.
Expected Candlestick Pattern for Entries
Bullish Setup: Green engulfing or hammer at $2,692-$2,693 (bullish FVG).
Bearish Setup: Red shooting star at $2,698-$2,700 (bearish FVG rejection).
Volume Profile Analysis:
Observation:
Volume increasing by 12% around $2,693, signaling active accumulation.
Positive volume spike aligns with bullish continuation above $2,693.
Higher Timeframes (1H, 4H, Daily)

1H Chart
Candlestick Pattern: Doji with a long upper wick at $2,698, indicating selling pressure.
Trend Analysis:
Detached by ~$4 from EMA-21 at $2,690. Potential pullback to $2,692.
RSI at 57, confirming bullish momentum.
Volume Analysis:
Positive volume is increasing, with a 10% rise compared to the previous hour, favoring continued upward moves.

4H Chart
Candlestick Pattern: A spinning top near $2,700, signaling indecision.
Trend Analysis:
Bollinger Band upper boundary at $2,707 aligns with resistance.
Fibonacci 50%-61.8% retracement zone ($2,686-$2,704) holds firmly.
Volume Analysis:
Volume spikes near $2,704 (~15% above average), indicating strong resistance.

Daily Chart
Candlestick Pattern: Inside bar setup at $2,694.
Outlook:
Long-term trend remains bullish. Immediate resistance is near $2,710.

Lower Timeframes (5M, 15M)

5M Chart
Candlestick Pattern: Bullish engulfing near $2,692, indicating strong buying support.
Volume Profile:
Volume increased by 18% compared to the previous session, favoring upward momentum.
15M Chart
Candlestick Pattern: Morning star pattern near $2,691-$2,692.

Outlook:
RSI divergence visible as price stabilizes around support zones.
Step 2: Key Success Factors (KSF) and Triggers for Entries

Bullish Entry Setup:

KSF Conditions:
Price holding above $2,691 (bullish FVG support).
RSI > 50 on 30M and Stochastic RSI bullish crossover.
ADX > 25 to confirm moderate trend strength.
Trigger:
Green engulfing candle at $2,691-$2,693 with positive volume spikes (>12%).

Bearish Entry Setup:

KSF Conditions:
Price rejection at $2,698-$2,700 (bearish FVG).
RSI < 50 with bearish divergence on Stochastic RSI.
Volume spike near resistance zones.
Trigger:
Shooting star at $2,698-$2,700 with negative volume divergence.
Step 3: Signature Multi-Timeframe Entry Plans

Long Entry Plan

Entry 1: Scalping Long
Trigger: Rejection wick at $2,692.
Entry: $2,692.
Stop Loss: $2,690.
Targets:
TP1: $2,695 (VWAP).
TP2: $2,698 (Bearish FVG boundary).
Expected Candlestick: Bullish hammer (green).
Volume Analysis: Positive volume spike by >10%.
Entry 2: Breakout Long
Trigger: Break above $2,695 with volume confirmation.
Entry: $2,696.
Stop Loss: $2,693.
Targets:
TP1: $2,700.
TP2: $2,704.
Expected Candlestick: Bullish marubozu (green).
Volume Analysis: Positive volume >15% above average.

Short Entry Plan

Entry 1: Scalping Short
Trigger: Shooting star at $2,698.
Entry: $2,698.
Stop Loss: $2,701.
Targets:
TP1: $2,695.
TP2: $2,691.
Expected Candlestick: Red engulfing.
Volume Analysis: Negative divergence >10%.
Entry 2: Confirmation Short
Trigger: Breakdown below $2,691.
Entry: $2,690.
Stop Loss: $2,692.
Targets:
TP1: $2,686.
TP2: $2,682.
Expected Candlestick: Red marubozu.
Volume Analysis: Negative spike >15%.

Step 4: Final Trading Outlook
Entry Type Entry Price Stop Loss TP1 TP2 R:R Ratio
Scalping Long $2,692 $2,690 $2,695 $2,698 1:2.5
Breakout Long $2,696 $2,693 $2,700 $2,704 1:3
Scalping Short $2,698 $2,701 $2,695 $2,691 1:2.5
Confirmation Short $2,690 $2,692 $2,686 $2,682 1:2.5

Executive Summary

1. Bullish Outlook: Support at $2,691-$2,693 holds, with volume spikes and RSI crossovers confirming upward momentum toward $2,700-$2,704.
   
2. Bearish Outlook: Rejection at $2,698-$2,700 signals possible retracement toward $2,691-$2,686.
   
3. Key Notes
   

: Volume profile alignment and RSI divergence are critical triggers for all setups.