3100 BY HALLOWEEN 7C - ARE BEARS ABOUT TO BE EXTINCT?
So here's updated situation before NEW ALL TIME HIGHS:
1) strong buy ellipse is 2396-2403
2) price is 2401.xx as I type
3) if price is an object, it should follow blue route
4) if price is a derivative of human emotion, in a other words, a polycentric subject
5) it should follow yellow route
6) so are bears about to extinct?
>>> a) I don't know about extinction
>>> b) bc first thing at 2450, I am going to short for 35-40 easy points
>>> c) then I'll proceed annihilate the rest of them next week
7) any way see those two lines that has been holding price since 2424?
8) break'em and we move higher immediately
9) 60 minutes from PPI at time of publishing
10) per the usual will add as we go
1) strong buy ellipse is 2396-2403
2) price is 2401.xx as I type
3) if price is an object, it should follow blue route
4) if price is a derivative of human emotion, in a other words, a polycentric subject
5) it should follow yellow route
6) so are bears about to extinct?
>>> a) I don't know about extinction
>>> b) bc first thing at 2450, I am going to short for 35-40 easy points
>>> c) then I'll proceed annihilate the rest of them next week
7) any way see those two lines that has been holding price since 2424?
8) break'em and we move higher immediately
9) 60 minutes from PPI at time of publishing
10) per the usual will add as we go
Nota
7:33 AM ET, 57 min from CPI NOTES:1) as I stated last night
2) this model does not insist on 1 route up
3) but insists that we are ultimately going up
4) and August high, should be 2730-2840 (dependent on Jackson Hole)
5) as there are many ways to skin a bear
6) we start hedging when things not going our way
7) for this situation 2394.5 is where we sit out
8) BUT LEVERAGE BACK IN IMMEDIATELY IF pcice co-operate
Nota
9) in chart above, the math is calling blue route 10) as with today's high at 2432
11) I disagree with the math bc I think price should be a derivative of human emotion
12) humans can be illogical and unreasonable
13) hence my call is yellow route
Nota
8:00 AM, 30 min from PPI, so basically..14) the key price/time target for today is ...
15) when do we hit 2430?
16) the earlier the better (for 2450 today as opposed to Sunday night or Monday AM)
Nota
17) NY opens in 88 min (9:30)18) by 10:00 everything should be obvious
Nota
8:32, 92.XX, hedged and waiting for reboundNota
8:35, 96.xx, drop hedges, may pick up again if 92 threatened...Nota
8:40, completely hedged, put/call 50/50Nota
8:45, going back in from here to 11:45a) just watching for the turn
b) bc we are extremely oversold for all this setup
Nota
c) 8:47 1/3 back inNota
d) 8:49, 2/3 back inNota
e) 8:53 so after the last third which is still hedgedf) I hammer the leverage up as hard as I can
g) but I have to wait for the right time
Nota
h) the key is to hammer the the turn to pay for cost of of the swing i) but the ABSOLUTE IMPORTANT PART
j) is I have to be ABSOLUTELY SURE
Nota
l) the key for leverage is 2406 OR m) the visual turn of the down wave for the trend line since 2424
n) once it turns, we are all the way up
Nota
9:00 2398.5 dropped all hedges againo) looking for leverage opportunities
p) but not yet
Nota
9:08 2401.xx leverage with 8/23 calls, at the money1) this is pretty safe leverage
2) I don't get greedy until 2406/ wave turn
Nota
3) so 9:11 AM, 2402.1.874) the leverage hammering should come before 10:30
Nota
5) no ... before 10:00, so at 9:12, within 48 minutes 6) or maybe even 9:50, SO 38 minutes
Nota
9:16, 2402.47 After 2405.45, not yet...7) I'm watching literally line by line wave count
8) so it's not so much what price
9) but what the total trend count says
10) there's a point coming when bull over power the short term selling completely
11) it's still coming
12) but until that lights up can't hit max leverage button
13) because when you hit max leverage, you are not allowed to be wrong
Nota
14) max leverage is essentially a day trade, bc I have to close it out todayNota
9:28 this leverage signal may not light up for 3-4 hours15) bc price is following blue route right now
16 even with the check down, price is on time for blue route
17) and doesn't have to get above 2406 until 1 PM
Nota
18) so 9:40 and 2401.xx19) I already have the signal bulls will win this one
20) BUT I NEED THE SIGNAL THAT SAYS "WIN BIG TODAY
Nota
21) so like this: Nota
22) blue is double bottom and red is just stair case23) doesn't matter leverage is where price breaks 2406 and move
24) while right now blue route is favored
25) bulls still have a shot gun that's loaded
26) I don't know if they will fire it but if they do
27) it's gonna be shocking
Nota
28) 9:57, 2404... almost but not yetNota
29) 10:00 ALMOST.. ALMOSTNota
30) 10:02, 2406, 1/3 MAX LEVEREDNota
31) 10:05, 2407, 2/3 MAX LEVEREDNota
32) 10:08 AM, gonna hold off the last third33) bc I don't need it
34) bulls STILL HAVE FULLY LOADED SHOT GUN...
35) WILL THEY SHOOT?
36) they don't need to to win today, bc they are projected for 2430-32
37) but if they do?
38) well yellow route vs blue route in chart at top
39) and right now, 10:12, just tagged 2410.xx
40) yellow is winning
Nota
41) doesn't mean yellow will win42) but in New York, markets have only opened for 43 minutes
43) we have 6 hours to go AND BULLS HAVE A FULLY LOADED SHOT GUN
Nota
44) butNota
45) doesn't matter if they have ICMB warheads46) if they don't shoot, ceiling is 2430
Nota
47) 10:20 AM 2410.XX how do you define the shot gun shot?48) easy, after hitting 2392.xx, the ceiling "hardened up", whereas it was previously a soft ceiling
49) so to make it softer, bulls need get up there
50) get rejected twice, and bust through
51) obviously the issue is TIME
52) you want 2450 today, you gotta make 2430 with at least half the day left to be taken seriously
Nota
53) so blue route has 2450 Monday during NY after open54) the averages for the shifting has pushed this up
55) so we will top before NY open Monday, so after London open
56) looks like 5 AM, right now
Nota
10: 31 AM, 2408.24, bulls have loaded and cocked, but will they pull the trigger? a) this shot gun is FULLY LOADED
b) and with cross hairs aimed at 2450
c) and they have cocked
d) all they have to do is pull the trigger
Nota
e) they just need a spark, a driver, a headline, ANYTHINGf) other wise settle for 2430
h) the difference is 20 pts, that's all that it is
Nota
i) they don't even need reasonj) just hold trend averages to get 35+
k) that's only 2443, but all time high is 2449, so does it really matter?
Nota
l) OMG... they don't need anythigm) no extra punch needed to get to 2450
n) JUST DO WHAT THEY ARE DOING NOW
o) this is a crime if we can't hit 2445
Nota
p) a crime, do you understand??q) or biggest tease setup I've ever seen for new all time high
r) and bulls can do it with 1.5 hours to spare not counting aftermarket
s) ALL WE HAVE TO DO IS HOLD REGULAR AVERAGE TREND
ADDING -- THAT WAS TYPO ON THE LABEL -- TRADE IS NOT CLOSED!!!
Nota
10:54 AM, 2408.XX, PLAY CHART AT TOPs) we are right in between the two routes
t) this is where it chooses yellow or blue
u) or in between
v) if it does not go yellow here that's very annoying
Nota
w) but no more news/Fed speakers, economic reports todayx) nothing.......arghhh
Nota
y) I am not asking for bulls to use all the their bullets herez) just asking them to be normal and NOT UNDER AVERAGE, average will get us to 2449
Trade ativo
11:06, 2410.68, they gotta start moving now1) the clock is running
2) they have to move to 20 while they are favored for all time high
3) stall and... time will run out by 2435
Nota
11:12, I don't care if bulls push past it1) we get out at 2447
2) why? TO BOOK THE WIN
3) and regroup
4) whatever happens, it's not "running away"
5 new all time high at 2455 or something, it's gonna drop 45 points easy on Monday
Nota
6) you can stay in if it's on a trend line AND HAS NOT BROKEN7) but above 2449
8) YOU GET OUT THE FIRST SECOND THAT LINE BREAKS
9) which ever line that is that gets to 2449
Nota
10) why? the first second11) you think you're the only one buying gold?
12) everybody looking at the same chart
13) OBVIOUSLY MONEY OFF THE TABLE at new all time high
14) that's all, you don't need "a setup" in this situation to drop 50
15) that's just what usually happens
Nota
16) we are now guaranteed to hit 2429 today, as THE STRONGEST GUARANTEE technical data can giveNota
17) how so?, the gundpower is enough hit 2458, which is 45 up from 2413.xx right now18) 2429 is only 16 of 45 so about a third of that powder
19) and we make 2429
Nota
20) and at 11:34 AM , and stalling ... 21) all the damn technical data says up an dup
22) but price is stalling FOR NO APPARENT REASON)=
23) that means we 're not going far past 2329
24) that's the early evidence
Nota
25) still early and we have a little time BUT NOT THAT MUCH TIME26) bc you hit 30-32 you probably drop 10 before higher
27) it's not a straight line, but I guess it can be, considering the setup
28) but insofar TOO MUCH STALLING
Nota
29) it's over, there's no hope for higher than 242930) why?
31) we hit 2410 100 minutes ago, we 2411 as I type
32) just too much stalling
33) stalling, leads to more stalling
Nota
34) loaded gun, but bulls falling asleep while they need to be upNota
35) we can do 2450 before London opens36) f that , we can do it now
37) but can and will.. 2 different things
38) so at 2411.s and almost noon
39) that's where we are
Nota
40) see what I mean? 41) price acting like this is the first time it's at 2414...
Nota
12:32, 2414.83 AND LET'S DO FRIDAY WRAP UP NOW1) we moving for 2429
2) obviously, it's still 12:33 so more than 4 hours counting aftermarket
3) can price take out 2449?
4) yes it can, BUT WILL IT?
5) this depends on two things
a) the sell off at 2324, if any
b) the sell off at 2329, if any
c) and it's not "if" bc there almost always is
d) so basically HOW MUCH SLOW DOWN
e) otherwise it's looking like Sunday night now
---
6) when we get to 2450-2455
7) price will stall for 40-45 pt check down
8) down to 2410-2417
9) then we resume rally for 2520
10) which is due next Wed or Thurs
---
11) 2415.xx at 12:41
12) so yesterday's high was 24.5 and today's regular vol limit is 29.5
13) so once you get to 24.5, it will be MORE ZIG ZAG
14) if price moves for 2432+ on this run up with minmal zig zag (read low resistance)
15) then odds favor 2450 this afternoon
16) only bc there maybe time and it's so close why not?
17) in that situation, WE GET OUT 2447 OR WHEN THAT LINE BREAKS
18) and we regroup early next week after the check down to 2410-2417
Nota
19) for the record, play chart at top20) obviously closer to blue
21) that's not final
22) it all depends on what happens after 2429
Nota
1:17 PM, 2416.75, IF YOU TRADE GLD, YOU HAVE A PROBLEM (fixed typo)a) that is the high will be over night
b) and price is likely to open Monday right here at 2416
c) so you would not get ANY BENEFIT OF BEING LONG
d) especially if you you in options
e) you have to sell today's high or at the close
f) if I have been directing your GLD trades
g) I will let you know when to sell
Nota
1:33 PM, I am waiting for 2429-2430 to sell todayNota
Nota
4) continuing in chart above5) so If you are not trading 24 hr markets
6) it's not obvious you will gain anything when Monday opens in the U.S.
7) that's all
Nota
8) 1:46 PM 16.85, next move is 29-319) I think that's it for today
10) bc the drop in the morning down to 91 ..
11) makes the total move 40 from thelow
12) end of day barring new news... gotta take what you can get here
Nota
1:58 PM ET, 2418, I am seeing the 2329/30 high RIGHT BEFORE NY CLOSEa) so if you are in GLD get rid of it about 5 min before the close
b) and that's it for today
Nota
3:20, 13.61, if we don't hit 2430 here, then just hold it through.a) I'm racking my brain trying to think of the move here
b) it's not like we have forever
c) but we are still 2450 next
d) but now, the question do we check down ?
e) well,yes
f) but 45 points, is there time?
hm.... I'm working on it
Nota
g) it's really weird to not take this hit for 2430 hereh) it's obvious 2450 is coming on Monday now
i) but even though the odds of a big check down ARE LOWERED
j) I still think we have to sell at 2450
k) because I don't know why should happen
l) and when we dont' know, we sell first, ask questions later
m) verdict: 2450 during NY on Monday
Nota
n) but we are much closer to 2510 then most people realize. o) my problem is this: WHAT IS THE CHECK DOWN AT 2450?
p) obviously we can hold through to 2510
q) but if we can side step 40-50 pts of vol, we obviously should do that
r) however, it's NOT OBVIOUS at all right now
s) so be aware
Nota
7/12 4:07 PM ET, MONDAY PLAN: EXIT AND SHORT 24501) there's a right moment to short
2) don't just going guns blazing vs new all time high
3) you might get destroyed IF YOU ARE OVER EAGER
4) but that's the plan
Nota
5) so for SUN/MON/TUE6) kill bears first, kill bulls after that, doesn't matter, we will kill 'em all
Nota
7) bc of project delays8) I will do this next week 2515
9) and be completely done with tradingview
10) if you want to find me, the link is right below this message
Nota
Sat, 7/13, 3:26 PM ET, I don't see us getting there getting to 2515 next week1) this can still change, but unlikely
2) I see double top plus rugpull to 2390
3)we sell and short the high, cover the 2390 low and simultaneous go go long
4) and next stop 2520 the following week
5) with that said here is next post:
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