The latest trend and trading analysis of gold and crude oil

há 4 dias

XAUUSD Analysis of gold news: Spot gold rebounded slightly in the late trading period of the U.S. market on Monday, but the strength was limited. The daily decline on Friday reached 1.5%, falling from the historical high. However, it should be noted that the price volatility increased significantly after the long squeeze, and the high-level operation caused the long profit-taking, which led to the adjustment of the gold price. The gold price is approaching $2,905/ounce, a surge of more than $22 a day. At present, the Trump administration plans to formally impose tariffs on auto imports on April 2, which may have a wide impact on the global supply chain. Although some investors believe that Trump's tariff policy is mainly a negotiation strategy, the market remains cautious about possible uncertainties in the future. In addition to safe-haven demand, the continued purchase of gold by central banks is also a key factor in maintaining high gold prices. According to market surveys, major central banks around the world, especially those in major Asian countries, continue to increase their gold reserves to hedge against global economic uncertainties. Monday is the U.S. President's Day holiday. The U.S. stock market is closed and the precious metals market is closed in advance. Market trading may be limited. Pay attention to the speech of Federal Reserve Board Director Bowman and Trump's dynamic news, and pay attention to news related to the situation in Russia and Ukraine. There are relatively few economic data this week, mainly due to the US real estate market data and the initial value of the US SPGI manufacturing PMI in February. Pay attention to the interest rate decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. GOLD USOIL

Technical analysis of gold: The daily line of gold shows a trend of falling with a high-level big negative, and the Bollinger Bands also show signs of closing. However, from the current technical perspective, it is not enough to determine the formation of the top. The main basis is that the unilateral moving average has not broken, and the 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average have not turned downward, which means that gold still has the possibility of rising. If the daily line continues to close with a big positive this week, the double top position of 2942 above may also be broken. It can be seen that the current technical aspect shows an overall bullish trend. If the unilateral moving average does not break, the downward trend will be difficult to continue; and if the key resistance level of 2942 is not broken, it will be difficult for gold to usher in a new round of substantial gains. Based on this, it is expected that gold will maintain a long-term volatile trend at a high level. Focus on the two key resistance levels of 2930 and 2942 on the top, and pay attention to the support of 2875 and 2830 on the bottom. The limit support is expected to be 2800.

In terms of small cycles, special attention should be paid to the volatile market of the H4 cycle. Above 2878, the H4 cycle closed above the lower Bollinger track with a small cross star, and the 60-day moving average did not break, so it is normal to rebound under the bullish trend. Then the big sun closed up, and the Bollinger band closed, which also laid a bullish tone for the market at the beginning of the week. In this case, it is necessary to wait for the end of the rising market of the H4 cycle, and then judge whether there is room for adjustment. Pay attention to the resistance levels of 2915 and 2930 on the top. On the whole, it is recommended to focus on callbacks and high-altitude rebounds in today's short-term operation of gold. Focus on the resistance of 2905-2915 in the short term, and focus on the support of 2885-2880 in the short term.

Analysis of the latest trend of crude oil market:

Analysis of crude oil news: On Monday (February 17, Beijing time), US crude oil traded around $70.95 per barrel. International oil prices rose slightly in the Asian session, benefiting from the recovery of fuel demand and the news that the United States postponed the implementation of global reciprocal tariffs, which eased the market's risk aversion. The Iraqi Kurdish Autonomous Region may resume exports, and the outlook for Russian oil supply is uncertain. Recently, the chairman of the Iraqi Kurdish Autonomous Region said that oil exports from the region may resume next month. This means that after nearly two years of interruption, oil supplies from northern Iraq will return to the international market, bringing additional supply pressure to the crude oil market. At the same time, US President Trump plans to meet with Russian President Putin to seek to promote peace talks in Ukraine. Although traditional European allies have been marginalized in the process, Trump said that Ukrainian President Zelensky will participate in the discussion of the peace agreement. This development may affect Russia's sanctions policy on oil exports and lead to changes in the global supply pattern in the future.

Technical analysis of crude oil: From the daily chart level, the medium-term trend of crude oil tested the upper edge of the wide channel and then fell, which just matched the fundamentals. The K-line closed with negative entities continuously, and the moving average system showed signs of turning downward. The performance of short-term momentum was dominant, and the medium-term trend returned to the range. The overall trend was mainly downward within the range. The short-term trend of crude oil (1H) rose first and then fell, and oil prices continued to fall and hit a new low. The moving average system was arranged in a short position, and the short-term objective trend direction was downward. In the main downward trend rhythm of crude oil in the early Asian session, short-term momentum was dominant. Patiently wait for the formation of the secondary rhythm. It is expected that the trend of crude oil will maintain low consolidation during the day and gradually test 70. On the whole, the operation strategy of crude oil today is recommended to rebound high and supplemented by retracement. The short-term focus on the resistance line of 72.0-72.5 on the upper side and the short-term focus on the support line of 70.0-69.5 on the lower side.

Summary: The characteristic of novices is that they do not understand technology and enter the market blindly. They only consider the first question every time they trade: they think that as long as they predict the rise and fall of the market, they can do this transaction. This approach of focusing on direction and ignoring position makes traders fail miserably. In fact, there is a big difference between the "trend" and the "direction" of following the trend, because the direction of the market movement presents a fluctuating form, and the market trend is often global. What I can do here is to help you control your positions reasonably, use the support and resistance levels to place orders, and make each order reasonable and traceable. Buying and selling points should not be entered at will, please be responsible for your own funds. If you really can't grasp the market, you can leave a message, and always remember one sentence, professionals do professional things.

Mr. Baker

há 4 dias

Nota

Late yesterday, I analyzed and provided the gold evening trading plan here. At present, the expected profit target has been successfully achieved. I am very happy and proud.