Monday Market Analysis and Signals

Spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range in the Asian market on Monday, and is currently trading at $2,653 per ounce. Gold prices fell 0.5% last Friday. After the release of the US PCE data, some bulls took profits, dragging down the price of gold. As the United States began to implement loose monetary policies to boost the attractiveness of gold, gold prices have set new historical highs in recent trading days, and the weekly line still closed higher, with three consecutive weekly gains. The third quarter is expected to be the best quarter in more than eight years. In addition, the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East also provides safe-haven support for gold.

Several historical highs were set last week, highlighting investors' strong expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Investors' interest has been rekindled as lower interest rates have weakened the transaction costs of gold. As an interest-free asset, gold is more attractive in an interest rate cut environment, pushing gold prices up by about 14% this quarter, the best quarterly performance since 2016.

The US September NFP report will be released this week, and investors need to pay close attention. In addition, they need to pay close attention to news related to the geopolitical situation, pay attention to the performance of global stock markets and changes in risk aversion. This trading day needs to focus on the speech delivered by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the National Association for Business Economics. However, it should be reminded that this trading day is the last trading day in September and the last trading day in the third quarter. Investors also need to beware of the possibility of abnormal market fluctuations caused by dealer position adjustments.

Technical aspect

Technically, the gold daily and weekly lines still maintain a good trend bullish structure, and the price runs around the bullish rising trend channel. At present, the daily line rises above 2685, and the long volume is released, and the indicator is stagnant and overbought, forming a short-term correction and repair, and the daily line forms a red and blue alternating closing. The price continues to maintain the MA10/7-day moving average at 2650/2627, opening upward and gradually moving up. The short-term four-hour chart retreated to the lower track of the Bollinger band on Friday to form a bottoming rebound. The technical trading ideas of gold remain unchanged and the trend is mainly low and long!

Use 2643 as a long stop loss to participate in long positions, and the upper suppression points are 2675 and 2685