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XAUUSD Bearish (11/12/2023 to 11/17-/2023 prediction)

Atualizado

Technicals:
Trade Idea 1: Price retraces to 1945 before bears take over. I expect the price to go to the 1910-1912 area.

Trade Idea 2: If we get to the 1910-1912 area, I expect a little consolidation before dropping to 1866.21. It is a bit of a distance away, so we may not see it hit by the weekend.

Trade Idea 3: Price retraces to 1945, and bulls take over to 1970. I don't have a lot of faith in this without a major catalyst pushing us up to 1953 or higher.

Nota

News events this week:
Monday:
Monthly Budget Statement (October) (Forcast $-30B with previous being $-171B)

Tuesday:
Fed speakers Williams, Jefferson, and Goolsbee have conferences.
Consumer Price Index (MoM and YoY)
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM and YoY)

Wednesday:
Producer Price Index (MoM and YoY)
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM and YoY)
Retail Sales (MoM)
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)(October)

Thursday:
Initial Jobless Claims
Industrial Production (MoM)(October)

Friday:
Building Permits (MoM)(October)
Housing Starts (MoM)(October)

Nota

All the reports this week are expected to be negative and have been priced in.

The only reports we expect the same as previous ones are the Consumer Price Index (MoM and YoY) and Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM and YoY). That doesn't make sense to me, as even the producers expect to take a hit for the month of October.

Nota

Fundamentals:
The Israel-Hamas war is the biggest tinderbox currently on the globe. We are at a bit of a standstill as Israel launched its ground invasion and is encountering fierce resistance from Hamas militants. Hamas has told both Hezbollah and Iran that they have the fight handled and it is going according to plan. Both Hezbollah and Iran are not too excited to join the fight, but they seem caught off guard by how meticulous the plan has become. At this point, a horizontal escalation strategy is being employed by all actors on all sides.

The humanitarian situation going on is looking bleak. Hospitals are indiscriminately attacked, and resources to run said hospitals have been depleted. We are over 10,000 civilians dead with about 13 confirmed Hamas deaths. The Arabs held an Arab summit condemning Israel and requesting a ceasefire. They are mostly toothless, as none are actively stoking tensions. Qatar is the only one saying they will arm and fund Hamas. Overall, I don't think we will see an Arab coalition landing in Gaza.

Russia - Ukraine war is pretty much over, with Ukraine having a 0% chance of winning the war and reclaiming the land they lost. To go even further, I see no reason for the Russians to accept a peace deal now as they can take even more land since there is very little to stop them. The Russians were desperate at the beginning of the war and it was in everyone's best interest to accept the peace deal. Now, the Ukrainians are the ones desperate and they have degraded all the leverage they have. The Ukrainians don't have any production for weapons as they rely on the West, they don't have the population to send to war, and more importantly, they are almost out of money. They never really had a chance to win in the first place but with Russia kicking up their production and selling their oil despite the sanctions, the Ukrainians are pretty much screwed. After this war, Russia is now a superpower again. They are nowhere near as strong as China and the USA, being a distant third, but they can fend for themselves on all fronts. The US is in big trouble as to take on China, they needed Russian help. After this war, China and Russia are cozy together and that is a huge threat to American hegemony.

China is also making waves and signing a peace treaty with Australia. Thanks to the joint efforts of both sides, bilateral exchanges in various fields have resumed and ties between the two countries are on the right track of improvement & growth. This shows that the Americans are losing influence in all theaters since they are complicit in the massive civilian death toll in the last month. My analysis of China invading Taiwan within a year is getting stronger.

The Europeans are not doing well at all. Italy and Germany's production has taken a huge hit without Russian oil. To make matters worse, the people who blew up the Nordstream pipeline ended up being Ukranian special forces units. Even though the Europeans are Ukranian's ally, they are not happy with their actions, which is putting the whole continent in jeopardy. It is going to be a very expensive Winter as everything is going to get more expensive. The days of cheap oil are over for at least the next generation.

Ordem cancelada

11/19

There have been no new escalations in the war tensions, and this week's price action was primarily centered around inflation data. On Tuesday, the CPI showed a decrease in inflation from 3.7% to 3.2%, bringing in dollar bears and, by extension, gold bulls. At the same time, the PPI came out at 1.3% lower than the previous at 2.5%, showing a large decrease hinting at lowering inflation. The biggest factor helping cool off the economy is lowering gasoline prices, making everything slightly cheaper.

All this is feeding optimism to the market that rate will be paused with possible rate cut next year.

MrMunni

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