Analysis of the latest gold market trends:

9 de jan.

Analysis of gold news: After two consecutive days of gains, gold prices are currently rising slightly on Thursday (January 9), trading around $2,671. Although market risk sentiment, geopolitical risks and trade risk concerns continue to support the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, the prospect that the Federal Reserve may slow down the pace of interest rate cuts has boosted the US dollar, thus putting pressure on gold with no yield attributes. The US dollar is currently holding near the two-year high hit last week, further weakening the upward momentum of gold. The rise in risk aversion has pushed US Treasury yields to a slight correction, which to some extent has suppressed the willingness of US dollar bulls to increase their positions and also limited the downside of gold prices. However, the market may be inclined to stay on the sidelines as it awaits Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) report. In addition, speeches by several members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have become the focus of short-term trading opportunities during the US trading session on Thursday.

The minutes of the Federal Reserve's December meeting showed that policymakers believed that labor market conditions were gradually easing, while supporting a slowdown in the pace of interest rate cuts to respond to signs of stagnation in inflation deceleration. Meanwhile, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to its highest level since April 25 last year on Wednesday, providing support for the dollar and becoming another factor weighing on gold prices. Additionally, geopolitical tensions have also provided some support for gold prices. CNN reported that US President-elect Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to provide a legal basis for universal tariffs on allies and opponents. In addition, Israel continues to carry out air strikes on the West Bank.

Technical analysis of gold: From the current market, the lows are moving up and the highs are refreshing. The positive trend of gold the next day fully demonstrates that short-term bulls are taking the initiative, which will undoubtedly increase the probability of gold prices hitting 2670, but as mentioned above, we also need to be prepared for a false break or a real break in the market. From a technical perspective, the daily line is driven by the continuous positive pattern, resulting in the price running effectively above the short-term moving average and the middle track of the Bollinger Band, and the short-term moving average is in an upward pattern at 2645 and 2638 respectively. Other periodic indicators maintain a bullish arrangement, and the macd indicator is in a golden cross upward pattern, so the bulls have the conditions to test strong pressure. However, given that the overall closing of the Bollinger Band has not yet formed a favorable pattern for the bulls, and secondly, the upper high point 2670 is under effective pressure, so while the daily line is bullish overall, it is also necessary to guard against a high and fall in the gold price.

From the perspective of gold 4 hours, after yesterday's pull-up, the price effectively crossed the short-term moving average and the middle and upper rails of Bollinger, and the strength of the bulls was reflected. However, as the gold price fell from the high this morning, it is now running below the upper rail of Bollinger and near the 5-day moving average. The short-term moving average is rising as a whole, but other periodic indicators continue to follow, and the Bollinger band is opening as a whole. In addition, the double lines of the macd indicator extend upward in a golden cross pattern, showing signs of upward volume. Therefore, the overall 4-hour level tends to rebound.

Intraday operation suggestions:
The main idea is to go long on the callback low. For the support below, focus on the 2647-2650 area, and continue to look at the 2670-2680 area above. If the bears break down strongly, it means that the downward space will expand. At that time, you can see the test of the support around 2638. Here, as a strong support shown by the adhesion of the daily 10-day moving average and the 20-day moving average, you can still boldly try to layout multiple orders. For upper suppression, first focus on the 2672-2675 area. If bulls want to achieve strength, they must break through and stabilize this area, otherwise the time period for shorts to control the market will be lengthened. Overall, the short-term operation strategy for gold today is mainly based on low-level bullishness, supplemented by high-level rebounds. The upper short-term focus is on the 2685-2690 line of resistance, and the lower short-term focus is on the 2660-2655 line of support.

Operation suggestions:
For the first time, gold fell back to 2658-2660 to go long, with a stop loss of 2650 and a target of 2672-2675.

10 de jan.

Trade ativo

Analysis of Asian midday gold market:

Spot gold is trading sideways at a high level, currently quoted at 2675/ounce, with support and pressure levels of high short selling and low long buying, pressure level 2686, support level 2610. In the current market of gold, yesterday's US market rose and fell, after probing the 2678 area, it quickly fell to 2662. Today, gold is trading sideways at a high level, and the consolidation is still mainly short selling. It is expected to break the 2650 area. If it breaks, it will go down to 2638 and 2622. Consolidation at a high level will inevitably lead to a sharp drop! In terms of Asian midday gold operations, gold is currently trading short near 2675, and it is expected to fall to 2650. If it breaks, it will go down to 2638 and 2622. It depends on the real-time situation!

Gold Asian midday strategy:
Sell short directly near the current gold price of 2675, with targets at 2650, 2638, and 2622; if it reaches 2679 or 2685, sell short in batches; if it reaches 2632, 2622, or 2610 for the first time, buy long; more real-time layouts are subject to the actual market;

10 de jan.

Trade fechado: objetivo atingido

ADP "small non-agricultural" data released by the United States on Wednesday showed that the number of private enterprise employment increased by 122,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis in December last year, the lowest increase since August last year and lower than market expectations of 139,000. Today, the United States will release the highly anticipated non-farm employment report. The number of non-farm employment in the United States will increase by 160,000 in December last year, while it increased by 227,000 in November. In addition, the unemployment rate in the United States remained at 4.2% in December.

Gold successfully defended the 2,600 mark at the end of 2024, and then rebounded. This week, the market has fluctuated and risen in a step-by-step manner, breaking through several key pressures of 2,650-2,680. The bulls have successfully reversed the situation and controlled the main theme of the rise. The rules are basically the same. The Asian and European sessions maintained a slow and volatile rise, and the US session rebounded after a sharp drop, repeatedly interpreting the deep "V" roller coaster market.


From the current trend, gold maintains a slow bullish rise. Although the short cycle is in a serious top divergence, the bulls are fearless and steadily rise. With such a trend, any pressure is meaningless. It is consistent with the market situation in early 2024, and history is repeating itself. Today is about to usher in the first non-farm payrolls in 2025, and it is expected that there will be significant fluctuations. I believe that there are many short orders under the market, and it may once again be a roller coaster, with a roller coaster market that rises, falls, and then rebounds again. The previous value of non-agricultural data is: 227,000, and the expected value is: 160,000. If the announced value is lower than 160,000, it is expected to stimulate gold to hit around 2,700; if it is higher than 160,000, then gold will usher in a wave of decline, so pay attention to the area around 2,655 below and try to buy more.

Gold trading strategy:
Operational suggestions:
Sell gold when it reaches 2685-2690, stop loss 2698, target 2665-2660

Buy gold when it falls back to 2655-2660 for the first time, stop loss 2648, target 2675-2680