GOLD has rising technical conditions, geopolitical risks
Atualizado
Despite the increase in the US Dollar and US Bond Yields, spot gold prices still increased by nearly 32 USD in yesterday's trading day, currently reported at about 2,360 USD/ounce.
Data released by the US on Thursday showed that the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the US in the week to June 15 was 238,000, compared to the previous forecast of 235,000.
The number of new homes built in the US in May fell to the slowest level in four years as rising interest rates weakened the housing sector's growth momentum earlier this year.
Data showed new home construction in the US fell at an annual rate of 5.5% in May, compared with expectations for a 1.1% increase. In addition, the total number of construction permits in the US in May was 1.386 million, lower than the expected level of 1.45 million.
Data last week showed labor market and price pressures were easing, while weak retail sales data released on Tuesday showed economic activity remained sluggish in the second quarter.
According to data from CME Fed's "FedWatch," traders currently see about a 64.1% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. Because gold does not yield interest, interest rates are falling, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold and driving up gold prices.
Rising geopolitical risks have fueled gold's bullish trend. Tensions are rising in the Middle East as Israel threatens to attack Lebanon. Combined with the recently signed agreement between Russia and North Korea through President Putin's state visit, this could increase the appeal of gold as it increases geopolitical risks in the region. , is currently trading near key resistance levels reported to readers in yesterday's edition.
Gold is still rising on safe-haven demand as global geopolitical threat levels rise again and global powers move troops on the global strategic chessboard.
Analysis of technical prospects for
XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold is temporarily limited by key resistance that readers noticed in yesterday's edition after gold moved above the EMA21 level and broke out of the price channel.
The current $2,364 technical level is the nearest notable resistance and once it is broken gold has the wherewithal to head for a new bull run with a near-term target of $2,400 raw price.
On the overall technical picture, gold is technically well positioned to rally with the nearest support noted by the EMA21 level, the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement, and the $2,345 technical point as previous resistance for now. is to become support.
During the day, gold's technical outlook supports the possibility of price increases with notable technical levels listed as follows.
Support: 2,345 – 2,340USD
Resistance: 2,364USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2400 - 2398
⚰️SL: 2404
⬆️TP1: 2393
⬆️TP2: 2388
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2329 - 2331
⚰️SL: 2325
⬆️TP1: 2336
⬆️TP2: 2341
Data released by the US on Thursday showed that the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the US in the week to June 15 was 238,000, compared to the previous forecast of 235,000.
The number of new homes built in the US in May fell to the slowest level in four years as rising interest rates weakened the housing sector's growth momentum earlier this year.
Data showed new home construction in the US fell at an annual rate of 5.5% in May, compared with expectations for a 1.1% increase. In addition, the total number of construction permits in the US in May was 1.386 million, lower than the expected level of 1.45 million.
Data last week showed labor market and price pressures were easing, while weak retail sales data released on Tuesday showed economic activity remained sluggish in the second quarter.
According to data from CME Fed's "FedWatch," traders currently see about a 64.1% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. Because gold does not yield interest, interest rates are falling, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold and driving up gold prices.
Rising geopolitical risks have fueled gold's bullish trend. Tensions are rising in the Middle East as Israel threatens to attack Lebanon. Combined with the recently signed agreement between Russia and North Korea through President Putin's state visit, this could increase the appeal of gold as it increases geopolitical risks in the region. , is currently trading near key resistance levels reported to readers in yesterday's edition.
Gold is still rising on safe-haven demand as global geopolitical threat levels rise again and global powers move troops on the global strategic chessboard.
Analysis of technical prospects for
XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is temporarily limited by key resistance that readers noticed in yesterday's edition after gold moved above the EMA21 level and broke out of the price channel.
The current $2,364 technical level is the nearest notable resistance and once it is broken gold has the wherewithal to head for a new bull run with a near-term target of $2,400 raw price.
On the overall technical picture, gold is technically well positioned to rally with the nearest support noted by the EMA21 level, the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement, and the $2,345 technical point as previous resistance for now. is to become support.
During the day, gold's technical outlook supports the possibility of price increases with notable technical levels listed as follows.
Support: 2,345 – 2,340USD
Resistance: 2,364USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2400 - 2398
⚰️SL: 2404
⬆️TP1: 2393
⬆️TP2: 2388
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2329 - 2331
⚰️SL: 2325
⬆️TP1: 2336
⬆️TP2: 2341
Trade fechado: objetivo atingido
Plan BUY HIT TP1 +100pips😵Nota
![GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [June 24 - June 28]](https://s3.tradingview.com/j/JchMMpfV_mid.png)
Nota
- XAUUSD cannot sustain above 2,350 USD per troy ounce. Prices retraced and began consolidating around $2,300 per troy ounce, just above support.- If XAUUSD sustains above $2,300 per troy ounce, the price could test $2,350 and the high set on June 7.
- However, if XAUUSD trends below the $2,300 per troy ounce zone, the price could drop to the next psychological support level.
Nota
US officials fear that war could break out between Israel and Hezbollah, between political parties and heavily armed militias in Lebanon backed by Iran. The war in Gaza has stirred long-standing conflicts with Hezbollah and other Iran-backed proxy groups in the Middle East.Nota
On the international market, today's gold price reached 2,331 USD/ounce, an increase of 12 USD compared to the previous session. World gold prices increased when interest rates on 10-year US Treasury bonds decreased. This makes gold, which is a non-interest-bearing asset, more attractive to other investment channels.Nota
Gold is turning into a loss today as these risks increaseGold prices fell on Tuesday morning with the opening of the Asian session after yesterday’s rise, and the price of spot gold contracts fell by 0.4% to $2,325.10 per ounce, while gold futures contracts fell to $2,337, a decrease of 0.31%.
Nota
🟢In the US, investors contending with uncertainty related to inflation, interest rates and geopolitics are already bracing for volatility that could accompany the presidential campaign and November election.Nota
- If XAUUSD holds above $2,300/ounce, the price could retest its previous swing high around $2,350/ounce before heading towards resistance at $2,400/ounce.- On the contrary, XAUUSD could retest the previous swing bottom at around 2,275-2,285 USD/ounce if the price closes below the support level.
Nota
World gold prices plummeted to their lowest level in 2 weeks, penetrating the important psychological threshold of 2,300 USD/oz, as the USD increased sharply while the market waited for an important US inflation report. Some experts believe that the toughness of US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials and the rise of the USD will continue to put downward pressure on gold prices in the short term, but the gold price trend may change. should be clearer from Friday.Nota
🟡Gold prices stabilized today after falling to the lowest level in two weeks in the previous session, with investors awaiting US inflation data in search of indications about the path of the US Federal Reserve reducing interest rates.Nota
🟢One bank expects gold prices to fall to this level!After gold prices (XAU/USD) rose earlier in the year, analysts at ABN AMRO Bank were cautious about their outlook on gold prices and maintained their forecasts at $2,000 per ounce by December 2024.
Nota
Gold prices rose more than 1% on Thursday (June 27) from a more than two-week low hit in the previous session, as the dollar weakened and attention turned to key US inflation data to looking for clues about the policy roadmap of the US Federal Reserve (Fed).Nota
🟡Gold prices are declining, but they are heading to record an increase for the third quarter in a row, at a time when investors are awaiting US inflation data scheduled to be released later today.- Gold in spot transactions fell 0.3% to $2,321.18 per ounce
- Gold prices increased by about 4% during the second quarter of 2024
Nota
(Focus) US core PCE: 0.1% m/m (Forecast: 0.1%. Previous: 0.2%)Canadian GDP: 0.3 % m/m (Forecast: 0.3%. Previous: 0.0%)
Nota
Gold price closed the trading week at 2,326 USD/ounce, a slight increase of about 5 USD/ounce compared to the end of last week.Precious metals on the international exchange have not been able to break out in the short term as the USD continues to maintain a high level. The USD index currently stands around 105.87 points, up 1.14% over the previous month.
Nota
On the daily chart, gold recovered but the early recovery was beaten by the target resistance area presented to readers in the previous issue of 2,340 – 2,345 USD, the price area of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement and technical level 2,345USD.Gold's weekly close still within the price channel shows that the downtrend remains stable, while price activity returning below the EMA21 also makes this moving average the closest current resistance for gold. with the price of gold technically on the daily chart.
Nota
World gold prices started a new trading week this morning (July 1) in a slightly decreasing state. After rising strongly in the second quarter and the first half of the year, gold prices have leveled off recently and experts predict they will continue to struggle in the short term.Nota
Goldman Sachs predicts when and how much the US Federal Reserve will cut interest ratesTwo analysts at the famous American investment bank, Goldman Sachs, presented their expectations for the steps of the US Federal Reserve regarding the date and number of times it will cut interest rates during the bank’s meetings this year.
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