Long Gold

3 de nov. de 2020

None of the following is financial advice, do your own analysis.



1W:
Complex Pullback into 20W EMA & top of prior trend channel. From a PA viewpoint holding here and subsequently breaking the 1950 level = bullish with expectation of re-testing August highs.
Fibs & measured move targets for a potential move higher towards 2200 area.

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1D:
Potential Breakout from consolidation channel, but would be careful about entering longs here right away. Those would need to be tightly managed on lower TF, as price is moving into a heavy resistance area roughly 1910-1950 (signified by the three horizontals in that area).
Putting in a higher low somewhere in that area and breaking the important 1950 handle subsequently (extending to upper Keltner Channel in the process) would increase my confidence for a push towards 2000-2025 area, at which point I would be more confident in entering/adding to longs.

Losing 1850-1860 would clearly invalidate this analysis.


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4H:
Promising shift in structure with strong momentum towards upper KC. Putting in a shallow consolidation and basically holding 1900 would instill confidence.

5 de nov. de 2020

Nota

After yesterday's move got faded we seem to see some general euphoria in markets responding to potential Biden victory (or maybe just a correlating narrative, the charts speak for themselves).

SPX expanding to the upside for the 4th consecutive day, BTC at 15k – and Gold & Silver on the move. Promising momentum to the upside, breaking key resistances. 1950 will be litmus test however, as well as how Gold will fare once SPX pulls back.

Took some swing trade profits & will try to hold on to rest of longs, as well as reload on a pullback. Want to see 1910-20 area hold, ideally.

3 de dez. de 2020

Trade fechado: stop atingido

Just some quick closing comments, as obviously the trade setup failed after an initial impulse move to the upside:

- It's important that we set some gateposts for ourselves that inform our bias. The initial trade idea stated: "Losing 1850-1860 would invalidate this idea". That clearly happened, and thus the setup was dead. Just speaking personally, I feel that kind of thing is necessary to increase mental flexibility to let go of a setup I was monitoring for some time, and especially to let go of a directional bias and be able to flip that, if applicable.

- Looking at price action, keep this in mind: If we get a strong impulse move in one direction that is then quickly reversed completely within 1-2 bars, that really tells us something about the state of supply/demand and as seen in this example we got considerable follow through after that reversal.

- Since we got a strong initial impulse move in the intended direction, this trade idea underlines the necessity for us as traders to lock in partial profits, which we could do at certain RR points (if they line up with technicals and aren't purely pie in the sky) or with a simple heuristic like "if I get a strong impulse move in my direction, I will take xx% off." In this case I am glad I took a sizeable amount of partial profits, and also tightened stops on remaining longs after the strong move upwards.

- On my own chart I took off the uptrend channel shown on the original 1W chart, since I don't trade off channels as a trigger. I had to smile seeing that the move down bounced exactly from the channel median, even though I didn't capitalise on it frankly, since I was waiting for a bounce play off the 1750 area.

- Either way, after strong downward momentum out of the range now above market, and the subsequent bounce this week, I am now looking at a short play on LTF near current levels for at least a test lower.