Gold 1st October NY session forecast - long - RR 4:1

1 de out. de 2021

After yesterdays bullish move during the NY session, we see the pivot point for gold was reached implying there are some bulls returning back into the market after sellers began taking profit and covering some of their shorts. For todays forecast I believe we will have the formation of a head and shoulders pattern, note that the right side of a H+S pattern can be higher than the head. As market sentiment towards gold is still bearish I believe that at the NY open, the banks will push up the price to take out the previous daily high and look for liquidity there. This zone is marked clearly on the graph, therefore providing us with a healthy 4 to 1 risk reward trade with the stop set below the neckline of the H+S pattern, below the daily low and below the 1750 trendline. Gold simply doesnt have enough liquidity to go lower yet, so despite the price being manipulated below the neckline, gold needs more sellers to enter the market at a better price before it can start to set lower lows. Once a new daily high is reached I expect gold to begin to selloff, depending on how gold reacts to the 1767-70 zone, here I will then enter a short position with a tight SL, if gold does indeed begin to fall, once the neckline of the H+S pattern is breached with a bearish engulfing candle and closes below on the 30 min timeframe gold will carry on falling and form the right shoulder. You should enter more sells just below the neckline ff there is a bearish structure forming.
As it is the first day of the month and the first day of Q4 it would be normal for gold to make an upper wick as banks unravel some of there short positions to cover order flow before adding more sells, therefore it would be healthy for gold to make an upper wick on the monthly and quarterly candles, this is why I'm confident in this intraday scalp.
Please note that would could get a very bullish candle if bears don't enter the market at the 1770 region, so if you do decide to short here use a very tight stop because we could get a bullish divergence depending on how much liquidity is sitting above yesterdays high at 1764.5.
I welcome questions and always make sure to manage your risk.