When examining the gold price from the perspective of a downtrend rally, it becomes apparent that, up to this point, XAUUSD has demonstrated a rejection of the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement. This occurrence serves as the initial indication that the downtrend's strength remains robust. In the event that the downtrend's momentum subsides, there exists the potential for XAUUSD to undergo a retest of the 50% Fibonacci retracement. At present, our position places us at the level of a lower high.
All attention is currently fixated on Powell's impending speech scheduled for tomorrow, as it is anticipated to offer insights into the resilience of the USD.
Invalidation:
This analysis becomes untenable should the price surge beyond the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Validation:
This analysis maintains its validity as long as the price remains situated below the 50% Fibonacci retracement.