Analysis of the latest trend of gold market:

10 de fev.

Analysis of gold news: Spot gold rose above $2,900/ounce in the European session on Monday (February 10), with a daily increase of 1.34%. Market concerns about US President Trump's tariff remarks continued to ferment. At the same time, US economic data strengthened the expectation that the Federal Reserve would maintain high interest rates. The safe-haven and anti-inflation properties of gold jointly pushed gold prices higher. Risk aversion in the global market has heated up, and investors are wary of the economic uncertainty that may be brought about by Trump's tariff policy. Earlier, Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, and said that he would implement a reciprocal tariff policy on all countries. This statement has exacerbated market concerns about global trade tensions, prompting funds to flow into safe-haven assets such as gold. In addition, the market is paying attention to the US CPI data to be released this week and the congressional testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. It is expected that these two events will provide further guidance for the trend of gold.

The focus of the market this week will be the congressional testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and the US CPI data for January. If the inflation data is stronger than expected, it will further strengthen the Fed's position of maintaining high interest rates, thereby supporting the US dollar, which may put some pressure on gold in the short term. However, from the long-term trend, the market's concerns about global economic uncertainty still exist, and the safe-haven demand for gold may continue. In the short term, the performance of gold prices around $2,900 will be the key to market attention. If it can effectively break through, the current round of gains may continue.

Why does gold continue to rise?

The recent strong breakthrough of gold is mainly related to macro and geopolitical risk aversion factors, mainly three pricing factors: the potential inflation rebound pressure in the United States, the increased expectations of interest rate cuts under the neutral statement of the Federal Reserve, and the increase in gold holdings by global central banks. Under the combination of these three variables, the price of gold continues to remain strong.

1. Geopolitical conflict: The Sino-US tariff war has re-emerged, and risk aversion has soared!

Geopolitical conflicts have escalated, the Sino-US tariff war has restarted, and risk aversion has soared. The saying "buy gold in troubled times" has reappeared, and investors have turned to gold for risk aversion, and gold prices have soared in the short term. At the beginning of 2025, the United States imposed tariffs on Chinese and Canadian goods, and China retaliated. Trade frictions exacerbated global economic uncertainty. Gold became a "safe haven" for funds, and the surge in demand pushed up gold prices.

2. The Fed cut interest rates: the cost of holding gold is reduced!

The Fed is expected to cut interest rates, reducing the cost of holding gold. History shows that gold prices perform well during interest rate cut cycles.

At the same time, interest rate cuts are usually accompanied by an increase in money supply, which may lead to rising prices and trigger inflation. Gold has anti-inflation properties. Under inflation expectations, its investment value will be further highlighted, thereby driving up gold prices.

3. Global central banks are buying gold crazily, with an annual demand of nearly 5,000 tons!

Data from the World Gold Council shows that in 2024, global central banks are snapping up gold at a record pace: purchases have exceeded 1,000 tons for three consecutive years, and accelerated to 333 tons in the fourth quarter, with an annual total demand of 4,974 tons. The central bank's demand for gold seems to be "endless."

Technical analysis of gold: Today, Monday, gold has once again hit a record high. As of now, gold has reached above the 2906 mark. Gold is currently maintaining a strong oscillating trend in the daily trend. The daily K-line continues to run along the short-term moving average, and the price shows signs of gradually moving out of the high-level oscillation range. There is no sign of peaking in the daily trend for the time being. Today, it is extremely strong in a cyclical rise. In this kind of time-based transaction, price is not the key, the key is time. At the same time, this rise is completely a forced shorting pattern, which is easy to rise but difficult to fall. Don't consider the idea of ​​shorting. In addition, at this rhythm, even if the longs open low in the morning, there is not much risk of retracement. Continue to look at the second rise.

On the 4-hour trend of gold, the price has come out of the previous high and volatile range. In the European and American market, we will pay attention to whether there is a second upward trend after the confirmation of the retracement. In the short-term trend, we will pay attention to the support around 2890 below. On the hourly level, the K-line basically maintains an upward trend along the short-term moving average, and there is basically no pushback during the day. If you want to go short in the short term, you must at least wait until there are signs of short-term peaking in the small-level cycle trend, and pay attention to short-term adjustments. Taken together, today's short-term operation of gold is based on a team of professional and senior gold analysts who recommend mainly buying on pullbacks, supplemented by shorting on rebounds. The upper short-term focus is on the 2920-2925 first-line resistance, and the lower short-term focus is on the 2890-2885 first-line support.

Today’s gold trading strategy:
Operation suggestion 1: Go long when gold pulls back around 2887-85, with a loss of 2878, and the target is 2900. Continue to hold the breakthrough position, and look for 2920!

Operation suggestion 2: Try to short gold at 2908-2910 (one-fifth of funds enter the market). If gold breaks through 2920, cover one-fifth of the position, stop loss at 2925, target 2900-2890, continue to hold if it breaks

11 de fev.

Trade ativo

2/11 Gold Market Analysis and Trading Ideas
Market Overview
Gold Trend: Gold is currently in a strong unilateral upward trend, with consecutive positive daily closings and new highs, and the weekly bullish trend is intact, with no top signal.

Market sentiment: The bull market continues, and short-term retracements are all buying opportunities.

Key resistance/support
Resistance: There is no obvious resistance above in the short term, and the focus is on the 2950-2955 area.
Support: The strong and weak watershed is at 2908, and a break below may retrace to the 2900 and 2890 supports.

Technical Signals
Extremely strong upward trend: If the price stands above 2908, it is likely to attack 2930-2950, ​​and the correction range is limited.

Overbought risk: RSI may be at a high level, but overbought in a bull market is not a reversal signal, and it needs to be judged in combination with the price structure.

Trading Ideas
Bull Strategy:

Radical: Try to buy with a light position near 2908.

Conservatives: Wait for a pullback near 2900, stop loss at 2890, target 2910-2920-2930.

Risk control: If the price quickly falls below 2890, be alert to a pullback to 2880 and hold off on bottom-fishing.

Short strategy:

Short against the trend: When the resistance zone of 2948-2955 is touched for the first time, you can try shorting, target 2930-2920-2910.

Stop loss: If the price breaks through 2955 strongly and stands firm, stop loss manually and exit.

Key points
Position management:

The risk of a single transaction is controlled within 2% of the total funds, and the total position of the long-short strategy does not exceed 10%.

Add long positions in batches after the trend is confirmed.

Fundamental coordination:

Pay attention to the data market and geopolitical risks this week, and be alert to the impact of sudden news.

Key points for watching the market during the day:

Asian session: If it is sideways above 2920, the European session may continue to rise; if it falls below 2908, wait for the US session before entering the market.

US market: Observe the strength of the price's test of 2950. If it repeatedly rises but does not break through and a long upper shadow line appears, test the short position with the MACD top divergence signal on the 1-hour chart.

unexpected response
Strong breakthrough of 2955: Step back to 2935-2940 to go long, focus on testing the 2970 mark.

Plunges below 2880: Suspend the long strategy and observe whether the daily closing falls below 2870. If the break is confirmed, the trend may turn to shock.

Summary
Trading principles: Following the trend as the main, and going against the trend as the auxiliary.

Focus: 2908 watershed defense, the priority strategy is to establish long orders in batches in the 2900-2908 area during the day, and the short orders above 2948 are used as short-term technical correction games.

Flexible response: Adjust the take-profit/stop-loss position based on real-time price momentum to avoid over-reliance on fixed positions. Strict risk control is the core prerequisite for sustained profitability.

12 de fev.

Trade fechado: objetivo atingido

2/12 Summary and key points of gold trading strategy

1. Key points and technical aspects
Upper resistance: 2910 (short-term), 2930 (key), 2942-2950 (extension).

Lower support: 2880 (core), 2860 (break target), 2840-2830 (deep decline area).

Watershed: 2900 (basis for judging strength and weakness in Asian morning session).

2. Trend judgment
Large cycle: bulls dominate, medium- and long-term gains are still there.

Short-term: obvious technical correction needs, and the effectiveness of 2880 support needs to be continued during the day.

2/12 Intraday trading short-term reference
Gold trading strategy 1: short at rebound highs
Entry point: short near 2908.

Stop loss: 2915.

Target: 2900-2890-2880 (break can be gambled to hold to around 2860).

Trading logic: If the rebound in the early Asian session cannot stabilize at 2900, there is a high probability that it will continue to adjust deeply and test the support below.

Strategy 2: Go long at a low point
Entry point: Go long once when it first touches 2880.

Stop loss: 2874.

Target: 2894-2906-2915 (can be held to 2930 if it breaks through).

Logic: 2880 is the short-term defense line for bulls. If it stabilizes and rebounds, it may continue to fluctuate at a high level.

Strategy 3: Dealing with extreme market conditions
Deeply falling to the area near 2840: choose the opportunity to go long at a low level.

Strongly pull up above 2930: choose the opportunity to go short at a high level, and pay attention to the effectiveness of the technical strong resistance above 2950.

Risk management
1. Stop loss setting
Control the position well in the short term during the day, and adjust it manually flexibly to avoid being triggered by false breaks.

2. Position management
The risk of a single transaction should be controlled within 1%-2% of the total funds, and positions should be built in batches to avoid heavy positions.

3. Real-time signal confirmation
K-line pattern: In the Asian morning session, pay attention to whether there is a bearish engulfing or high-altitude signal near 2900, and whether there is a hammer line or morning star (low-long signal) near 2880.

Indicator assistance: RSI overbought (>70) cooperates with short orders, oversold (<30) cooperates with long orders; MACD dead cross/golden cross confirms momentum.

4. Market sentiment and data
Pay attention to changes in the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, and geopolitical risk events.

In the US session, pay attention to the trend of CPI data and be alert to fluctuations caused by sudden news.

Emphasize the important position again
1. The water difference between strength and weakness is 2900, and the Asian market fluctuates around 2900.
If 2900 is not broken after multiple tests, you can test the short position and do it in batches; otherwise, if it stands firm at 2900, wait and see, waiting for the direction of the US market.

2. If the European session breaks below 2880
Confirm that it has broken through and rebounded, choose the opportunity to participate in short selling with stop loss and small position game, the target is 2860→2840.

3. The US session rebounds and breaks through 2910
If accompanied by an increase in trading volume, if it falls back to 2900 without breaking, you can choose to do short-term longs, the target is 2930, pay attention to the second high trend, and consolidate at high levels!

Summary
Gold is currently in the technical correction stage of the bullish trend. It should be treated with a shock mentality during the day. The key point range is 2910-2880. Sell high and buy low. Be vigilant about the game between the big cycle trend and the short-term adjustment. If 2880 is lost, it may open up a deeper correction space. Strictly stop losses in operation, avoid holding orders, and flexibly adjust strategies according to the market.