Technical Analysis of Gold Spot (XAU/USD) - 1H Chart

4 de dez. de 2024

The chart reflects Gold's price action consolidating between critical support and resistance zones, with potential breakout or breakdown scenarios. Below is a detailed analysis of bullish and bearish setups with entry and exit strategies.

Key Observations
Trend Overview:

The price is trading within a range-bound structure, with resistance near $2,662 and support at $2,620–$2,622.
The formation of a liquidity void near the $2,662 resistance zone highlights strong sell-side activity during prior tests.
Support Levels:

$2,620–$2,622: Immediate support zone, aligning with the Buy-Side Order Block.
$2,602–$2,605: Strong demand zone where buyers previously entered aggressively.
$2,586–$2,590: Extended support zone in case of a deep correction.
Resistance Levels:

$2,662–$2,665: Immediate resistance zone, coupled with sell-side pressure.
$2,711–$2,720: Major resistance and potential breakout target.
Volume Analysis:

Buy Volume: 2.797M vs. Sell Volume: 489.6K (Delta Volume: 140.41%): Indicates bullish activity holding price above support.
The low volume near $2,662 suggests that sellers are actively rejecting higher prices.
NY Midnight Open:

Price is hovering near the NY Midnight Open at $2,644.36, acting as an intraday pivot level.
Bullish Scenario
Conditions for a Bullish Move:

Price must sustain above the $2,620–$2,622 support zone and break through the $2,662 resistance zone.
A breakout and close above $2,662 would confirm bullish momentum toward higher resistance levels.
Entry Points:

Aggressive Entry: Buy near the $2,620–$2,622 support zone, with a stop-loss below $2,610.
Conservative Entry: Enter on a breakout and retest above $2,662, confirming bullish continuation.
Exit Points (Take Profit):

First Target: $2,662 (immediate resistance breakout level).
Second Target: $2,711 (key resistance zone).
Final Target: $2,720 (extended bullish target).
Invalidation:

A breakdown below $2,610 would invalidate the bullish setup.
Bearish Scenario
Conditions for a Bearish Move:

Price fails to break above $2,662, facing strong rejection and confirming sell-side dominance.
A confirmed breakdown below $2,620 would open the path for further downside.
Entry Points:

Aggressive Entry: Short near $2,662 if price shows rejection, with a stop-loss above $2,670.
Conservative Entry: Enter short after a confirmed breakdown below $2,620, with a stop-loss above $2,630.
Exit Points (Take Profit):

First Target: $2,602–$2,605 (key support zone).
Second Target: $2,590 (extended support).
Final Target: $2,586 (major demand zone and extended bearish target).
Invalidation:

A breakout above $2,670 would signal bullish continuation and invalidate the bearish setup.
Key Indicators to Monitor
Volume Behavior:

Increasing buy volume near $2,620 supports the bullish scenario.
High sell volume near $2,662 would confirm bearish pressure.
Price Action at Resistance:

Price must break and sustain above $2,662 to confirm a bullish breakout.
Liquidity Zones:

The liquidity void near $2,662 will determine whether sellers dominate or buyers push price higher.
Summary of Probable Entry & Exit Points
Scenario Entry Zone Stop-Loss Target Levels
Bullish $2,620–$2,622 (Aggressive) or above $2,662 (Conservative) $2,610 $2,662, $2,711, $2,720
Bearish $2,662 (Aggressive) or below $2,620 (Conservative) $2,670 $2,605, $2,590, $2,586
Conclusion
Bullish Outlook: A breakout above $2,662 can lead to a rally toward $2,711 or even $2,720.
Bearish Outlook: A rejection at $2,662 or a breakdown below $2,620 could result in declines toward $2,605–$2,586.
Traders should closely monitor the price action and volume near $2,620 and $2,662 to confirm the next move. Manage risk with tight stop-loss levels and clear entry triggers.