Atualizado

RIGHT NOW #009

This bold black line means everything right now. Price is stalling too much, and if bold line holds for 6-7 hours, it's gray route all the way to 2303. Bulls have to break that line and stay above it or it's over.

Nota

9:12 AM 2395.50 AND MUST STAY HERE OR HIGHER REST OF NY.
1) slipping to down a few points IS NOT OK!!
2) while overall trends favor bull route
3) bear route is the obvious route to traders in general
4) so be aware

Nota

9:30, 2396.xx, BULLS MUST STAY ABOVE 2395, or else.

Nota

10:24 I guess it doesn't have to be 2395, it's 2390.84 now and bears don't seem interested in early move 2303.
1) this implies yellow route to 2445 is going to win out tonight
2) and that's all there is to say about that

Nota

10:42, 10 point drop to 82.xx bulls losing their setup if they don't stick save this.
1) this move down is stretching the bulls setup
2) this is going down gray route

Nota

Nota

3) its binary situation,
a) either bulls take this back to 2390
b) or bears next move is 2360
c) the sideways move at 2388-2390 (that implied bulls win tonight)
d) that setup is going to disappear in an hour

Nota

e) to make that setup stay live
f) bulls have to push his to 87-88 and stay there
g) under 87 it doesn't necessarily mean bear route
h) but there's always SIDEWAYS AT THE MIDDLE

Nota

11:00 2380.XX, LOOKS LIKE BEARS GOING TO WIN!

Nota

a) barring stick save 8 point spike
b) bears are taking this all the way down

Nota

c) curves at the bottom beginning to turn bear
d) this means bulls need to push this up now !

Nota

11:08 AM 2382.XX, so bulls need this to be 2387 in an hour, so it could be 2392 in 2 hours.
a) so while they have a 2 hour window, its not really 2 hours
b) as long bears keep this under 2385'
c) their odds of spike down increases steadily
d) in other words:

Nota

e) next move is 2360

Nota

f) no, 2348
g) just play chart at top
h) so it's GOING TO BEAT THE HILIGHT GOING DOWN

Nota

11:20 BROKE 44 YEAR TREND LINE
1) now bouncing to 73.xx
2) next 2 moves are 58 then 44?, let's say 58 and 42
3) how much time?
4) as little as 2 hours and as much as 11 hours

Nota

5) 11:31, 73.68
6) ok, in chart above, we get to 2303 as a response to FOMC for gray route
7) meaning Wed night or Thurs AM if late
8) bc by that time you're only dropping 30-35 points if even that much
9) so the problem is this
10) yes price can move to 2335-2340 in 10-11 hours
11) but it does NOT HAVE TO
12) there's gray route and one more that I is likely

Nota

13) but gray route is favored over red route
14) that much we can say
15) what else can we say?
16) there goes 2900s for October
17) now we have 1 route left
18) 5-top +weaker rally

Nota

11:58 AM, 2376.XX, BASE CASE IS 2346 IN 8-9 HOURS. DURING TOKYO.

Nota

12:19 PM, 2377.XX, hold on, there's one more move we have to watch for.

Nota

12:50 PM 2378.XX, THIS ONE IS HARD!!

Nota

POST #10 IN GROUP

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