XAUUSD (1H) - Bullish Trend with All-Time High

XAUUSD

📶Technical Analysis:

🟢 Bullish Trend: Since the beginning of the year, Gold has been in a clear bullish trend on the 1-hour chart. The price has been consistently moving between the trendline support and trendline resistance, with multiple breaks and retests of resistance levels.
🟢 Last week, Gold reached a new all-time high of $2,817, marking the peak of the current rally.
🟡 Currently, Gold could face a potential correction towards the trendline support and the 200 MA, which is near the $2,770 level. This zone could act as a key support area where the price might bounce and resume its bullish trend.
🟠 If the trendline support is broken, we may see a limited bearish move, but the overall outlook remains bullish for now, as fundamental factors and economic uncertainty continue to support Gold.
🟢 As long as the trendline support holds, the bullish trend remains intact. The key support to watch is around $2,770, with resistance at the previous all-time high near $2,817.

🆕Fundamental Analysis:

🟢 President Trump has threatened to impose 100% tariffs on BRICS nations and a 25% tax on goods from Canada and Mexico starting February 1, boosting demand for safe-haven assets like Gold, the Japanese Yen, and US bonds.
🟢 US GDP grew 2.3% in Q4 2024, lower than the expected 2.6%, which has sparked expectations that the Fed might not raise rates anytime soon.
🟢 There are growing concerns about a potential global recession, driven by factors like slowing economic growth, rising inflation, and geopolitical tensions. A recession could lead to weaker consumer demand, business cutbacks, and tighter financial conditions. This could result in a downturn for certain markets and an increased demand for safe-haven assets like Gold.

🔤 Conclusion:

🟢 Bullish Outlook for Gold: I remain bullish on Gold and am watching for a correction on the 1H chart, potentially around key support levels.
🟢 Support Levels: Look for bullish signals near these support levels, especially around the $2,770 zone, where the trendline and 200 MA could act as strong support.
🟠 Trend Breakout: A breakout of the trendline could signal a limited bearish movement, but as of now, the overall outlook remains bullish.
🟡 Economic Monitoring: Pay close attention to economic factors like GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment data, as these are crucial for defining future expectations and potential market shifts.