PREPWORK FOR 9/30 DRAFT 3

HEADER - This is followup to DRAFT 1 and DRAFT 2.

SUMMARY - 1635 by 10/13.

STRATEGY - Pick a spot and short sell.

DETAILS - See previous drafts for how we got here.

Comentário:

9/27 10:28 PM ET
1) this is a very rough draft
2) what I could do on very little time

Comentário:

3) we are 240 over the theoretical floor
4) the scale of this one is gigantic and averages once every 4 to 5 years

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5) the first signal this is true is price heading to 1843-1847 BEFORE FIRST LEGIT BOUNCE
6) in theory, we should hit that before the week is out, but my first raw guess is tomorrow

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7) why does it have to be so steep?
8) 1635 is as far from 1875 as is 2115
9) my "applicable congruent bollingers" say so
10) basically, it is max vol on 300 trading day basis

Comentário:

11) why 300-day?
12) I will put it this way...
13) the 75-trading-day wave is turning SHARP SOUTH (almost 90 degrees in a way) at the ..
14) boundary of 150-day wave
15) this is happening while the 300-day is turning down RIGHT NOW
16) this forces the 150-day under the 600-day WHILE
17) the 600-day is UNDER THE 1200-day
18) 1-standard deviation bollinger for 300-day has the bottom at 1635
19) while 1-standard deviation bollinger for 600-day has bottom at 1655-ish
20) this means the BB for 300-day is WIDER than the 600-day
21) ALL OF THIS ADDED TOGETHER MEANS 1635 BY 10/13

Comentário:

9/28 8:24 AM ET, 1876.XX
1) so here is the big test for this bear case today
2) in order to hold 1635 target for 10/13,
3) we really need to see 1843-1847 today
4) if we don't see that and move to 1880 first?
5) then 1700-1775 targets still on for 10/13
6) in that case, DRAFT 4 would be needed w/ big changes again

Comentário:

9/28 9:11 AM ET 1975.XX
1) so price like to swing a lot around 7:30 AM ET bc that's when many economic reports are due
2) when I wrote in notes right above this, in "4) if we don't see that and move to 1880 first?"...
3) I actually meant 1886 and the why is obvious:

Comentário:

4) so that's the 3 trend lines bears are fighting to hold
5) breaking the lower one is not a big deal bc it's the one right above it that changes things in a big way
6) that said, the spike only hit 1879.xx and immediately tag new low at 1871.xx
7) now trading 1873.xx and on target for 1843-1837 today
8

Comentário:

9/28 10:52 AM 1967.23
1) I forgot to finish that last note for 8...., but not a big deal
2) so we finally broke under
3) if you are not convinced this thing is going to 1635 by 10/13, that's completely reasonable
4) but as I said earlier this morning at 8:24 AM, we need to 1840s to hold that target
5) this is in odrer for wall waves to "sit right"
6) prices don't move in a straight line
7) so the move down to 1840s WILL GET BOUGHT simply bc of regression mean reversion
8) so that leads to this DRAFT 4, that I can't really finish until I see 1840s
9) that's really only 1.3% or less away now from 1867.11 as I type:

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10) so as I post chart above:
11) price just hit 1964.00

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11) typo 1864

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12) so see that bolded black wave extension?
13) that is, hold on..

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14) roughly speaking, the 9-day wave
15) now I will attempt to reverse engineer priceaction w/ respect to wave location

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16) 11:11 AM just saw 1860xx just 15 more
17) it's possible in THIS SITUATION

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18) 11:26 AM ET, so I saw 1957.xx moments ago...
19) does that mean we will get 1947 soon?
20) that depends on how you define soon
21) it might be in 1 or 2 or 12 hours... but it should be before Friday

Comentário:

9/28 12:16 PM ET. THIS POST HAS ENDED. HERE IS FINAL DRAFT: