A week packed full of high-importance economic releases, central bank meetings, and mega tech stock earnings, starts today with the release of the latest S&P Global PMIs at 14:45 UK time. While expectations for the US releases are little changed from last month, if they are anything like today’s Euro and UK sentiment numbers then they may be set to disappoint the market. German, UK, and Euro manufacturing, services, and composite numbers all missed market forecasts and accompanying commentary highlighted fears of slowing economic growth. Bad news when interest rates are set to be hiked by all three central banks in the coming days.
As well as policy decisions from the Fed, the ECB, and the Band of Japan, there are a slew of economic releases this week that can move the market. For all market-moving data releases and events, see the DailyFX Economic Calendar
Fears of slowing economic growth are pushing global government bond yields lower. Traders are currently pricing in peak rates in the US and are lowering their expectations for the Euro Area and the UK. This backdrop should be supportive for a non-interest bearing such as gold, but this is not playing out at the moment as fears of stubbornly high inflation remain. The latest US Core PCE report, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, will be released at the end of this week and this will drive price action going into the weekend.
Gold is trading on either side of $1,960/oz. an area that has acted as both resistance and support in the past months. Today’s price action is limited and the 14-day Average True Range indicator shows gold’s volatility at a multi-month low. Last Thursday’s multi-week high at $1,987/oz. will act as short-term resistance, while the $1,932-$1,939/oz. zone will act as initial support.
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