Gold waiting for liquidity acquisition before the big short!

13 de dez. de 2023

Gold Price Trend: I am observing that the price of gold is challenging bullish sentiments and is currently near the lowest level of the past three weeks at $1,976.
Influential Key Events: I am keeping an eye on crucial economic events, especially the decision on interest rates by the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) and political prospects.
Moving Averages: I have noticed that the price of gold is heading towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) located at $1,970, after finding strong support below recent week lows at $1,976.
Key Support Levels: In case the bearish momentum strengthens, I am considering that the 200-day SMA at $1,953 could be threatened, followed by a possible test of the 100-day SMA at $1,941.
Key Resistance Levels: For a sustained recovery, I am watching the need for a daily close above the 21-day SMA at $2,006. In such a case, I believe gold buyers may target the resistance area at $2,018 and subsequently the supply zone at $2,040.
Implications of Economic Events: I am taking into account the effect of U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on the behavior of the U.S. dollar and the price of gold. Although inflation has remained in line with expectations, certain data components have influenced expectations of Fed rate cuts.
Federal Reserve Outlook: I am closely considering statements from Chairman Jerome Powell and the "Dot Plot chart," as they can be crucial in understanding monetary policy prospects. Expectations of rate cuts in 2024 could influence the price of gold.
Future Scenario: Based on the Fed's statements, I am assessing that if the Fed strengthens rate cut expectations, gold could see a rebound. Otherwise, I expect an expectation of a return to demand for U.S. dollars could lead to gold selling.
Current Market Conditions: I am noting that the market environment is currently risk-oriented, which tends to support the U.S. dollar and limit upward movements in the price of gold.