Technical Analysis of Gold Spot (XAU/USD) - 1H Chart

12 de dez. de 2024

The chart reflects a bullish continuation with the price currently trading near $2,713, having broken above key levels of resistance. The market appears to be consolidating above $2,706 (NY Midnight Open), signaling a potential continuation or a pullback before the next move. Below is a detailed analysis of bullish and bearish scenarios with probable entry and exit points.

Key Observations
Trend Overview:

Price is in a strong uptrend, with higher highs and higher lows observed on the chart.
The breakout above $2,706 confirms bullish momentum, with the next major resistance at $2,758.
Support Levels:

$2,706–$2,708: Immediate support zone, aligned with the NY Midnight Open level.
$2,680–$2,685: Secondary support zone, marking the prior breakout area.
$2,661–$2,663: Key demand zone where strong buying activity occurred earlier.
Resistance Levels:

$2,713–$2,718: Immediate resistance zone currently being tested.
$2,740–$2,745: Major resistance zone and breakout target for continued bullish momentum.
$2,758–$2,760: Extended resistance zone, marking the final bullish target.
Volume Analysis:

Buy Volume (3.499M) vs. Sell Volume (878.6K): Indicates strong buying pressure driving the current uptrend.
Delta Volume (119.72%): Suggests buyers remain in control despite some profit-taking at higher levels.
Bullish Scenario
Conditions for a Bullish Move:

Price must sustain above the $2,706–$2,708 support zone and break through $2,718 with strong volume.
Continued buying pressure would likely push the price toward higher resistance levels.
Entry Points:

Aggressive Entry: Buy near the $2,706–$2,708 support zone, with a stop-loss below $2,700.
Conservative Entry: Enter after a confirmed breakout and retest above $2,718, with a stop-loss below $2,710.
Exit Points (Take Profit):

First Target: $2,740 (key resistance zone).
Second Target: $2,758 (extended bullish target).
Final Target: $2,760 (major resistance zone).
Invalidation:

A breakdown below $2,700 would invalidate the bullish scenario.
Bearish Scenario
Conditions for a Bearish Move:

Price fails to break above $2,718, indicating rejection at resistance.
A confirmed breakdown below $2,706 would signal bearish momentum.
Entry Points:

Aggressive Entry: Short near $2,713, with a stop-loss above $2,720.
Conservative Entry: Enter short after a confirmed breakdown below $2,706, with a stop-loss above $2,712.
Exit Points (Take Profit):

First Target: $2,685–$2,680 (secondary support zone).
Second Target: $2,663 (key demand zone).
Final Target: $2,661–$2,660 (extended bearish target).
Invalidation:

A breakout above $2,720 would invalidate the bearish scenario.
Key Indicators to Monitor
Volume Dynamics:

Increasing buy volume above $2,713 will confirm bullish continuation.
Rising sell volume near $2,718 could indicate rejection and a potential pullback.
Breakout or Breakdown Confirmation:

A breakout above $2,718 signals further bullish continuation toward $2,740 or higher.
A breakdown below $2,706 would signal bearish momentum and potential correction.
Candle Structure:

Sustained bullish candles with minimal upper wicks signal continuation.
Reversal candles with long upper wicks near resistance indicate selling pressure.
Summary of Probable Entry & Exit Points
Scenario Entry Zone Stop-Loss Target Levels
Bullish $2,706–$2,708 (Aggressive) or above $2,718 (Conservative) $2,700 $2,740, $2,758, $2,760
Bearish $2,713 (Aggressive) or below $2,706 (Conservative) $2,720 $2,685, $2,663, $2,660
Conclusion
Bullish Outlook: Sustained buying above $2,718 could push the price toward $2,740–$2,760.
Bearish Outlook: Rejection at $2,718 or a breakdown below $2,706 could trigger a pullback toward $2,685–$2,660.
Traders should monitor price action and volume near $2,718 resistance and $2,706 support for confirmation of the next move. Tight stop-losses are essential to manage risk in this breakout/pullback scenario.