GOLD in March marked a record month of increase
Atualizado
World gold price stood at 2,259 USD/ounce, a sharp increase of 26 USD/ounce compared to last week's closing session.
MARKET RECAP: NEW RECORD IN THE BOOKS
Gold broke its previous record and crossed the $2,200 per ounce mark in an exceptional first quarter. This surge was mainly driven by investor expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy outlook. Following a period of significant interest rate increases in 2022 and 2023 in many developed economies, investors anticipate central banks like the Fed to start easing restrictions as economic growth and inflation stabilize.
The future potential for gold's upward movement may be limited due to the already priced-in transition to a more relaxed stance. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to adopt a more dovish posture, which is necessary for significant gains, given recent guidance and inflation risks. If the FOMC delays action and shifts towards a more hawkish direction, gold could face turbulence. Gold typically benefits from lower Treasury yields and a weaker U.S. dollar, which are associated with the Fed reducing borrowing costs.
BEYOND THE FED: GEOPOLITICS, CENTRAL BANK DEMAND
The impact of global interest rates on gold's trend is not the only factor to consider. Ongoing conflicts, particularly the Russia-Ukraine war, have already increased the geopolitical value of gold and could provide further support if tensions escalate in the next quarter.
In addition, strong purchases of physical gold by central banks will contribute to market strength. In 2022 and 2023, central banks acquired more than 1,000 tonnes of gold each year, signaling a historic pace. The Central Bank of Turkey and the People's Bank of China were among the active buyers.
Central banks are buying gold in record amounts due to its safe-haven qualities, stability as a store of value, and diversification benefits. As global power dynamics shift and U.S. dominance becomes less certain, central banks are strategically reallocating their reserves away from heavy reliance on the U.S. dollar. Limited data for 2024 shows strong demand for gold, with January's central bank acquisitions of 39 tonnes and projections suggesting continued robust demand throughout the year. This could provide a buffer against potential losses in a bearish market correction.
THE OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL WITH A WATCHFUL EYE
The second quarter may see consolidation for gold after its strong gains in the first months. A significant price surge is unlikely unless there are unexpected changes in global inflation and monetary policy. Investors should monitor economic data, central bank communication, and geopolitical developments for insights into gold's future. The upcoming U.S. presidential election could bring increased volatility and potentially benefit gold prices as a defensive investment. However, this is not expected to dominate the market in the second quarter yet.
Assessing the outlook, it is estimated that gold price can easily reach 2,300 USD/ounce or higher in the second quarter of 2024.
![🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [April 01 - April 05]](https://s3.tradingview.com/3/3do8Wv7Z_mid.png)
Resistance: 2260 - 2265 - 2270
Support: 2250 - 2245 - 2235 - 2225
MARKET RECAP: NEW RECORD IN THE BOOKS
Gold broke its previous record and crossed the $2,200 per ounce mark in an exceptional first quarter. This surge was mainly driven by investor expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy outlook. Following a period of significant interest rate increases in 2022 and 2023 in many developed economies, investors anticipate central banks like the Fed to start easing restrictions as economic growth and inflation stabilize.
The future potential for gold's upward movement may be limited due to the already priced-in transition to a more relaxed stance. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to adopt a more dovish posture, which is necessary for significant gains, given recent guidance and inflation risks. If the FOMC delays action and shifts towards a more hawkish direction, gold could face turbulence. Gold typically benefits from lower Treasury yields and a weaker U.S. dollar, which are associated with the Fed reducing borrowing costs.
BEYOND THE FED: GEOPOLITICS, CENTRAL BANK DEMAND
The impact of global interest rates on gold's trend is not the only factor to consider. Ongoing conflicts, particularly the Russia-Ukraine war, have already increased the geopolitical value of gold and could provide further support if tensions escalate in the next quarter.
In addition, strong purchases of physical gold by central banks will contribute to market strength. In 2022 and 2023, central banks acquired more than 1,000 tonnes of gold each year, signaling a historic pace. The Central Bank of Turkey and the People's Bank of China were among the active buyers.
Central banks are buying gold in record amounts due to its safe-haven qualities, stability as a store of value, and diversification benefits. As global power dynamics shift and U.S. dominance becomes less certain, central banks are strategically reallocating their reserves away from heavy reliance on the U.S. dollar. Limited data for 2024 shows strong demand for gold, with January's central bank acquisitions of 39 tonnes and projections suggesting continued robust demand throughout the year. This could provide a buffer against potential losses in a bearish market correction.
THE OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL WITH A WATCHFUL EYE
The second quarter may see consolidation for gold after its strong gains in the first months. A significant price surge is unlikely unless there are unexpected changes in global inflation and monetary policy. Investors should monitor economic data, central bank communication, and geopolitical developments for insights into gold's future. The upcoming U.S. presidential election could bring increased volatility and potentially benefit gold prices as a defensive investment. However, this is not expected to dominate the market in the second quarter yet.
Assessing the outlook, it is estimated that gold price can easily reach 2,300 USD/ounce or higher in the second quarter of 2024.
Resistance: 2260 - 2265 - 2270
Support: 2250 - 2245 - 2235 - 2225
Nota
After the holiday, world gold prices continued to increase rapidly. The main reason may be that central banks around the world continue to buy physical gold. Rising demand has directly impacted gold prices, pushing prices to record highs.Trade fechado: objetivo atingido
BUY signal at Support 2145 + 100pipsNota
Nota
Wait until the morning Gold hour drops to 39-40 then it's good to get in. With a low back like this, it's not easy to dodge sweeps.DXY and Gold in the same phase often sweep randomly
Nota
Gold rises above $2,270 as USD weakens slightly following the release of February JOLTS job openings data as expectedNota
Gold prices continued their record march during trading on Wednesday, as fears of inflationary pressures boosted demand for bullion as a means of hedging, with traders ignoring doubts about an imminent cut in US interest rates and rising Treasury bond yields.Nota
IMPORTANT ALERT🇺🇸10 Minutes Left For One Of Most Important Economic News
🟢 U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices
🟢U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Nota
In the April 3 session, gold was supported when the ISM services PMI report dropped to 51.4 compared to the initially estimated level of 52.8. The precious metal fell to $2,267 early in the European session but then rebounded sharply and ended the day at $2,293 after the PMI data was released.Nota
The opportunity for Godl to decrease to 225x 224x will be more difficult with the current GOLD price position.Unless DXY has reduced unemployment and increased employment there will be more opportunities.
And vice versa, the chance of GOLD going up to 2400 is possible if DXY has bad data. Because GOLD is regaining its BEEF position and DXY is still bad, then let the SELLER bear the losses before that 🔥🔥🔥
Nota
The gold market reached a new high of $2,339.57 per ounce, driven by the US economy's strong job growth and low unemployment rate. Wages, however, showed minimal increase in line with expectations.Nota
📌Technically, gold price has broken out of its medium-term price increase channel on the weekly chart, indicating that the upward trend will continue in the medium and long term. However, the price is currently far above the moving averages and the RSI is in the overbought zone, suggesting a potential risk of profit taking in the short term. Next week, important support levels for gold prices are at $2,250-$2,200-$2,100 per ounce, while $2,400 per ounce will be a significant resistance zone. The trading plan for next week will focus on buying around $2,250 and selling near the round resistance level of $2,400.
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🧩Forex signals have a high win rate
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