Gold has risen about $200 since falling to a more than two-year low in late September as expectations of a slower Fed rate hike eased the dollar's allure.
In my last global review, I said we should expect a pullback after the breakout. The price forms a technical pullback to the $1775 zone and the bulls finally consolidate their position. As we can see, gold continues its rise, the price is currently at $1815.
After the price fixes above the trend line, which started its formation in mid-2019, the price opens for itself the potential to $1878 and it is worth assuming that by the end of the year the price can shoot up to this mark
Gold is holding range as trading is rather sluggish and investors are in a wait-and-see mode. PCE data will be important. If inflation continues to decline, the dollar will weaken further and gold will take on a more resilient tone.
Third-quarter U.S. gross domestic product data and weekly jobless claims data will be released at 13:30 GMT. Traders will also analyze Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data due out Friday, looking for information on inflation.
The U.S. Federal Reserve gradually lowered the pace of rate hikes to 50 basis points in December after four consecutive 75-basis-point rate hikes. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has signaled that the U.S. central bank will raise rates next year.
At this point, gold looks good, and some caution should be exercised with it. All it takes is one or two negative factors for gold to plummet down again
If the blockages start again and we see a paralysis in the Chinese economy, demand will fall and that will be a bearish factor for all commodities, including gold.
The medium and long term outlook:
1) Gold is currently open to a move to $1878
2) The level of $1878 is difficult to break through and we should expect a pullback or consolidation at this level.
3) $1878 will be the key level to determine the further move.
4) If the bulls seize this area and hold the price above the level, the price will open a potential for the level of $1983
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