Beware of the bull trap !
Another attempt to use Elliott wave to analyse Gold. New high gold prices have been reached over the successive past weeks since my last update in Dec 2023.
There has been serious doubts whether I have been wrong in my wave counts for gold. But based on my umpteen repeated analysis of the the wave structure of gold since the 1980s ( I will present my case later on), I am still in the bearish camp for the short and midterm.
I still perceive that gold will see the 1400 region first before ascending to the 4000 region.
As depicted in the chart, I have recounted the wave count as the blue W-X-Y corrective structure since Aug 2020. The blue W is a zig-zag (A)(B)(C) followed by a the blue X, abc wave structure with b wave as a contracting triangle. Using the rule of alternation, if W wave is a zigzag, the Y wave can be a flat. In this case, the Y wave is an expanding flat.
The (A) wave of the expanding flat Y is a zigzag (abc) as shown. The tricky part is the (B) wave of the expanding flat Y. I have counted this wave as a double zigzag (WXY). It seems that the peak has been reached.
A 5 wave structure down to the 2000 region, a retracement of 38.2% of the double zigzag (B) wave as depicted in the chart, will be a step in the right direction that the 'c' wave structure has begun.
There has been serious doubts whether I have been wrong in my wave counts for gold. But based on my umpteen repeated analysis of the the wave structure of gold since the 1980s ( I will present my case later on), I am still in the bearish camp for the short and midterm.
I still perceive that gold will see the 1400 region first before ascending to the 4000 region.
As depicted in the chart, I have recounted the wave count as the blue W-X-Y corrective structure since Aug 2020. The blue W is a zig-zag (A)(B)(C) followed by a the blue X, abc wave structure with b wave as a contracting triangle. Using the rule of alternation, if W wave is a zigzag, the Y wave can be a flat. In this case, the Y wave is an expanding flat.
The (A) wave of the expanding flat Y is a zigzag (abc) as shown. The tricky part is the (B) wave of the expanding flat Y. I have counted this wave as a double zigzag (WXY). It seems that the peak has been reached.
A 5 wave structure down to the 2000 region, a retracement of 38.2% of the double zigzag (B) wave as depicted in the chart, will be a step in the right direction that the 'c' wave structure has begun.
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