XAUUSD Bearish Gartley

14 de set. de 2017

In conjunction with my previous analysis of XAUUSD (link below in "Related Ideas"), a bearish Gartley is forming and approaching completion on the 1hr chart which may support my short term bearish bias on this commodity.

Used in conjunction with my previous H&S analysis this setup may provide a decent entry for the anticipated continued bearish move to about 1290 potentially.

14 de set. de 2017

Nota

The X point of this pattern has just been violated though price has as yet not closed above it which I would the consider an invalidation of the Gartley.
However, this would not entirely invalidate the pattern, but just result in the setup of a different pattern. In this case a Bearish Crab which I would be looking to complete about the 1326-1325 level.
The problem here is this is no mans land and as such difficult to identify a basis for setting a stop level (I tend to use ATR based stops above relevant highs or lows but there isn't one here that does not skew reward to risk).
As such I would be looking for a different entry basis that would also provide an appropriate basis for setting a stop (double top, some sort of bearish consolidation e.t.c)
Let's see how this plays out.

14 de set. de 2017

Nota

As expected (thank you markets), price action perfectly completed the Bearish Crab (pattern formerly known as Bearish Gartley) in the 1326-25 area which would have made for a beautiful trade entry opportunity but alas we didn't get our entry reason as price almost immediately reversed on completing the pattern.

Plus side, my IPDE is improving significantly, spot on analysis, didn't panic when the initial pattern was invalidated, flowed with the markets to identify pattern change and predict price action and we remained disciplined (to my teachers once again-Arigato gosaimasu).

So on to the next one. We still have the Head and Shoulders for this instrument so as price action breaks the neckline once more, let's see if we can find another entry opportunity on the next retracement (IF THERE IS ONE).

AS FOR THIS MORPHED PATTERN, I'M CALLING IT - WE GAVE IT OUR BEST BUT MARKET JUST DIDN'T GIVE US WHAT WE NEEDED - DOA!!!

PS: I'm looking at what I learned as a sell signal on Gold 15 min (when I first started my trading education): 5 period EMA crossing below 20 period EMA, MACD crossing below signal line as well as RSI crossing below 50 - all at the same time. In conjunction with my new education knowledge, I don't expect this to be a head fake. So look for further down side - wait we already covered that :D