GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [July 15 - July 19]
Atualizado
Latest data shows that it is impossible to cool down the gold market. Spot gold closed down about 4 dollars at 2,410 USD/oz, recovering quickly from the short-term selling pressure created when PPI data was released.
US PPI rose slightly higher than expected in June as higher carrier margins more than offset falling commodity costs.
On Friday (July 12), data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the producer price index (PPI) increased 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year. last year, higher than expected.
However, Gold prices rose to their highest since May 22 on Thursday after a surprise drop in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). The data reinforced the view that the deflationary trend has continued and raised hopes of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
as early as September.
With the Fed now wary of labor market weakness, financial markets are increasingly betting that the Fed will cut interest rates in September and are predicting a further fall in borrowing costs in December.
As noted by readers in the brief comments when the data was released on the impact trend observation data, PPI data is typically not tracked as closely as CPI data so the impact of it for CPI data will be insignificant.
In other words, if CPI and PPI are on the same trend, PPI will synergistically boost the impact of CPI. Otherwise, if PPI is not on the same trend, its impact will not be as great as CPI.
As the market gradually approaches a low interest rate environment (assessing expectations based on macro data), inflation cools and dovish comments from the Fed increase expectations for interest rate cuts, these factors will be solid support for precious metals. Not taking into account other unexpected factors from geopolitical risks that can escalate at any time, in all cases when geopolitical conflicts occur, gold is always chosen as a safe haven.
Notable economic data and events next week
Monday: Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Powell speaks at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C.
Tuesday: Retail sales in the US
Wednesday: US housing construction figures and building permits
Thursday: ECB monetary policy decision, weekly jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed survey
Data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that for the week ending July 9, speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures increased by 13,062 lots to 191,603 lots .
Analysis of technical prospects for
XAUUSD
After adjusting and retesting the support area noted by readers in the previous edition, the area around 2,400 - 2,390 USD gold recovered to close above the original price of 2,400 USD.
In terms of weekly closing position, the weekly closing above 2,400 USD should be considered a positive signal because at this point the original price point of 2,400 USD has become the closest technical support point of gold price.
The bullish technical structure remains unchanged with the price channel as the medium-term trend and the price channel as the short-term uptrend. The fact that gold keeps its price activity in the above two price channels provides conditions for price increases towards the levels of 2,425 - 2,449 USD in the near future, on the other hand, the Relative Strength Index has not yet reached the overbought level, showing that there is an overbought level. The place to buy is still available.
Looking ahead, technical conditions support a bullish case for gold prices on the daily chart, with notable technical levels listed below.
Support: 2,400 – 2,390USD
Resistance: 2,425 – 2,449USD
📌The trading plan for next week will first be to buy if the price is around 2375, watch to sell around 2450, then wait to buy again at 2350, wait to sell at 2480.
US PPI rose slightly higher than expected in June as higher carrier margins more than offset falling commodity costs.
On Friday (July 12), data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the producer price index (PPI) increased 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year. last year, higher than expected.
However, Gold prices rose to their highest since May 22 on Thursday after a surprise drop in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). The data reinforced the view that the deflationary trend has continued and raised hopes of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
as early as September.
With the Fed now wary of labor market weakness, financial markets are increasingly betting that the Fed will cut interest rates in September and are predicting a further fall in borrowing costs in December.
As noted by readers in the brief comments when the data was released on the impact trend observation data, PPI data is typically not tracked as closely as CPI data so the impact of it for CPI data will be insignificant.
In other words, if CPI and PPI are on the same trend, PPI will synergistically boost the impact of CPI. Otherwise, if PPI is not on the same trend, its impact will not be as great as CPI.
As the market gradually approaches a low interest rate environment (assessing expectations based on macro data), inflation cools and dovish comments from the Fed increase expectations for interest rate cuts, these factors will be solid support for precious metals. Not taking into account other unexpected factors from geopolitical risks that can escalate at any time, in all cases when geopolitical conflicts occur, gold is always chosen as a safe haven.
Notable economic data and events next week
Monday: Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Powell speaks at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C.
Tuesday: Retail sales in the US
Wednesday: US housing construction figures and building permits
Thursday: ECB monetary policy decision, weekly jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed survey
Data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that for the week ending July 9, speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures increased by 13,062 lots to 191,603 lots .
Analysis of technical prospects for
XAUUSD After adjusting and retesting the support area noted by readers in the previous edition, the area around 2,400 - 2,390 USD gold recovered to close above the original price of 2,400 USD.
In terms of weekly closing position, the weekly closing above 2,400 USD should be considered a positive signal because at this point the original price point of 2,400 USD has become the closest technical support point of gold price.
The bullish technical structure remains unchanged with the price channel as the medium-term trend and the price channel as the short-term uptrend. The fact that gold keeps its price activity in the above two price channels provides conditions for price increases towards the levels of 2,425 - 2,449 USD in the near future, on the other hand, the Relative Strength Index has not yet reached the overbought level, showing that there is an overbought level. The place to buy is still available.
Looking ahead, technical conditions support a bullish case for gold prices on the daily chart, with notable technical levels listed below.
Support: 2,400 – 2,390USD
Resistance: 2,425 – 2,449USD
📌The trading plan for next week will first be to buy if the price is around 2375, watch to sell around 2450, then wait to buy again at 2350, wait to sell at 2480.
Nota
🟡Gold prices decline coinciding with increasing US political uncertaintyGold metal prices fell during the first trading of the week, and for the second session in a row, as a result of the rise in the US dollar along with the weakness of Chinese demand for gold, with global markets awaiting the statements of US Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell later in the day.
Nota
Gold prices rose on Monday (July 15), fluctuating near the highest level in more than a month recorded last week, supported by hopes of lower interest rates from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Investors wait for more comments from Fed officials to evaluate the timing of interest rate cuts.Nota
Nota
🟥GOLD HEADS FOR RECORD HIGH CLOSE ON VIEW THAT FED IS POISED TO CUT RATESGold prices advanced Tuesday, on track for a record close as rising expectations of a September interest rate cut bolstered demand for bullion.
Spot gold gained 0.7% to $2,438.83 per ounce. Gold futures advanced 0.6% to $2,443.80. Earlier in the day, futures hit a high of $2,448.2, the best level since May 20 when it traded for as much as $2,454.20.
Nota
🟢TRUMP WARNS THE US FEDERAL RESERVE GOVERNOR AGAINST CUTTING INTEREST RATES BEFORE THE ELECTIONS!Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate for the US presidency, during an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek, yesterday evening, Tuesday, warned Federal Reserve Governor Powell against lowering interest rates before the elections.
Nota
🔻The current US President, Joe Biden, is stumbling on his way to the White House for a serious term, with a counter-campaign not only from his rival, Republican candidate Donald Trump, but also from his family in the Democratic Party, as calls for his withdrawal are increasing.Nota
🟥Gold shines on expectations of interest cuts... and expectations of breaching this levelGlobal gold prices rose during these moments of trading, today, Thursday, to be trading not far from the record high level recorded in the previous session, as increasing expectations of a reduction in US interest rates in September led to an increase in demand for non-yielding bullion.
Nota
🟢US Federal Reserve Member Goolsbee: The inflation mission is not over yet!The statements of the US Federal Reserve member in Chicago, Austin Goolsby, today, Thursday, addressed the following points:
🟢I feel much better after several months of improvement in the CPI, but the job of inflation is far from over.
🟢It is very clear that inflation has fallen a lot in the past 12 to 18 months, and that is the same rate as inflation has fallen at all times.
Nota
World gold prices dropped sharply last night and this morning (July 19), when the USD exchange rate rebounded from a 4-month low. Some experts predict that if former US President Donald Trump is re-elected, his economic policies will benefit gold prices.Nota
Thus, last week the world gold price lost more than 2% due to pressure from the recovery of the USD. The USD increased 0.1% against other currencies, while 10-year Treasury bond yields also increased, putting considerable pressure on bullion.In addition, profit-taking activities in the market increased after this precious metal reached an all-time high thanks to increasing expectations that the US Central Bank will cut interest rates in September. Factors pushing gold prices down.
Nota
🔴The Israeli army announces the interception of a missile launched from YemenThe Israeli army said on Sunday that it had intercepted a surface-to-surface missile that was approaching Israel from the Red Sea. He said that the missile was coming from Yemen and was shot down before crossing into Israeli territory. He added that the Arrow-3 air defense missile system shot down the missile before it crossed into Israeli territory.
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🧩Account management
🧩Forex signals have a high win rate
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