Gold It's time to choose: 1935 or 2035!

22 de nov. de 2023

Gold underwent a trend reversal, dropping below $2,000 in the second half of the day following positive US Jobless Claims data that pushed the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond above 4.4%. This strengthened the US dollar and weighed on XAU/USD. Despite positive technical indicators on the daily chart, repeated failures to surpass $2,000 suggest caution for bullish traders. Further gains might require a breakthrough in the $2,009-2,010 area. On the downside, support is found around $1,991-1,990, with the risk of a decline towards the 200-day Simple Moving Average near $1,938-1,939 if the weekly low at $1,965 is breached. The gold price is influenced by expectations that the Federal Reserve won't further increase interest rates, supporting the metal amidst modest US dollar strength. The USD Index rebounded from recent lows after hawkish FOMC meeting minutes emphasized a commitment to higher interest rates amid inflation concerns. Bullish sentiment around gold is tempered by the psychological barrier of $2,000. Additionally, I highlighted a level between 1985 and 1995 where the price could create a bearish setup to fall back to the level of 1935 or where the price could rebound towards 2035. Until the end of the week, we won't have significant macroeconomic data regarding the dollar, so I expect a less volatile market that will try to take a position before the weekend, where a temporary ceasefire in the Israel conflict is expected, potentially leading investors to liquidate their positions and consequently bring down gold. Greetings to everyone from Nicola.