Non-agricultural data will be released soon, long or short?
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The non-farm payroll data in January was unexpectedly weak, largely due to statistical adjustments and labor hoarding causing abnormal data. The addition of over 500,000 jobs to the non-farm sector is unsustainable, and inflation is likely to continue to trend downward in the first half of this year due to base effects. Therefore, I personally believe that the Federal Reserve does not need to be excessively hawkish during a period of sustained inflation decline, and market sentiment will not remain pessimistic indefinitely. The comments from Powell on Tuesday and Wednesday were also ambiguous, indicating that acceleration in interest rate hikes would only occur when necessary, and not definitively. Therefore, whether or not it is necessary will depend entirely on how the data performs. Based on yesterday's initial jobless claims data, I believe the probability of non-farm payrolls being bullish for gold is relatively high.
Furthermore, this week's sell-off did not continue, and after two consecutive days of low-level volatility, prices rose sharply during the US session, reaching a high of around 1835. This has changed the weak trend, and from a technical perspective, there has been no break below new lows. Instead, bearish momentum has stalled after falling to 1809, and gold has rebounded again. The expected bearish momentum for gold breaking new lows no longer exists, and from a technical standpoint, yesterday's rebound has stopped the downward trend. Gold is likely to continue to rise, particularly given the weak performance of US employment data, which has boosted the long-term expectations for gold. It is not ruled out that gold will continue to oscillate upwards with 1809 as the bottom, fluctuating in a broad range between 1809 and 1855. Based on the weekly chart, signals suggest that the current upward trend will continue next week.
If both the news and technical aspects indicate a bullish outlook for gold, then the rise in gold prices is inevitable, and prices are highly likely to test the previous highs. Conversely, if the bearish factors do not break through the 1809 level, then the rebound in gold prices will not be small either.
Therefore, my short-term trading strategy will focus on going long. As long as the watershed of 1830 is not broken, I will gradually go long at this line, with a target of 1845-1855.
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XAUUSDXAUUSDNota
The bearish market sentiment reversed and the gold price is currently around 1840. Traders who entered long positions may consider taking profits.Trade fechado: objetivo atingido
Nota
From a fundamental perspective, non-farm payrolls (NFP) are actually positive for gold, which is why the short-term price of gold is increasing. It is expected to continue to experience upward volatility next week.Nota
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