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XAUUSD - Gold Awaiting NFP!
In the 4H timeframe, gold is below the EMA200 and EMA50 and has exited its ascending channel. If gold re-enters the channel and stabilizes above the drawn downward trend line, we can witness the continued rise of gold and limited visibility of the channel ceiling. Within the supply zone, we can sell with appropriate risk reward. The failure of the support area paves the way for gold to fall and you can buy in the demand zones.
The U.S. nonfarm payroll report is set to be released today, drawing the full attention of markets. It is expected that nonfarm jobs will increase by 200,000, primarily due to the resolution of the Miloten hurricane and the conclusion of Boeing’s strike.
However, recent charts indicate a declining trend in nonfarm employment over the past few years, confirming the weaker labor market conditions that the Federal Reserve has noted during its rate-cutting cycle. Even if the headline figure exceeds 200,000, it is unlikely to prompt a change in policymakers’ stance. The unemployment rate is also projected to rise to 4.2%.
Markets may look for meaningful insights from today’s employment data, but they are unlikely to find anything substantial. Overall, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates again in December.
Forecasts for job growth range between 155,000 and 275,000, compared to just 12,000 new jobs in September. The unemployment rate for this month is anticipated at 4.2%, slightly up from 4.1% last month. Last month’s precise unemployment rate was reported at 4.145%, while the labor force participation rate stood at 62.6%.
In terms of wages, annual average hourly earnings growth is expected to slow to 3.9%, down from 4% last month. Monthly wage growth is forecasted at 0.3%, slightly below the previous month’s 0.4%. Average weekly working hours are expected to remain unchanged at 34.3 hours.
Key data released so far include:
• ADP Report: 146,000 jobs added compared to 150,000 in the previous month.
• ISM Services Employment Index: Declined to 51.5 from 53, still the second-highest figure of the year.
• ISM Manufacturing Employment Index: Rose to 48.1 from 44.4.
• Challenger Job Cuts: 57,727 compared to 55,597 in the previous month.
• Philadelphia Fed Employment Index: Increased to 8.6 from -2.2.
• Empire State Employment Index: Rose slightly to 0.9 from 4.1.
Recent trends suggest that the labor market is generally weakening, though temporary improvements are evident in some areas. JOLTS data paints a similar picture, with most Federal Reserve members convinced that the labor market is cooling. However, a single NFP report is unlikely to alter this broader trend, particularly given the influence of hurricanes, elections, and the end of Boeing’s strike on the numbers.
On the other hand, President-elect Donald Trump's pro-business policies and "America First" approach have pushed gold prices lower ahead of the new year. However, one Canadian bank believes that gold's upward trend is not over yet.
While markets may need time to adjust to Trump's economic policies, CIBC analysts remain bullish on gold's future in 2025. Investors should not be surprised by the gold market's current woes, the analysts said, as a similar trend was seen in 2016, during Trump's first term. The Bank of Canada has reiterated its summer forecasts and stated that Trump's impact on the gold market will ultimately be positive.
According to analysts, “It may take several seasons, but inflationary pressures will eventually show. Although this issue may challenge the trend of interest rate cuts, we believe that wealth preservation and the desire of non-US investors and central banks for safe assets will continue to support gold prices."
Peter Schiff, chief strategist at Euro Pacific Asset Management, believes that the price of gold will not return below $2,000 an ounce, and that the price of gold is likely to double or triple. He noted that gold fluctuated between $1,500 and $2,000 from 2011 to 2024 and has now reached higher levels without resistance.
Schiff emphasized at the New Orleans investment conference that the performance of gold this year shows the strength and high potential of this valuable metal. He also predicted that as the price of gold rises, more investors will be interested in stocks of mining companies.
Meanwhile, BlackRock emphasized in its recent report that the Federal Reserve does not appear to have entered a typical cycle of interest rate cuts. The analysis shows that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates further in 2025.
This reduction will occur in a situation where economic growth will slow down somewhat, but inflation will still remain above the target. Therefore, the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates below 4%, and rates will remain above pre-pandemic levels.
The U.S. nonfarm payroll report is set to be released today, drawing the full attention of markets. It is expected that nonfarm jobs will increase by 200,000, primarily due to the resolution of the Miloten hurricane and the conclusion of Boeing’s strike.
However, recent charts indicate a declining trend in nonfarm employment over the past few years, confirming the weaker labor market conditions that the Federal Reserve has noted during its rate-cutting cycle. Even if the headline figure exceeds 200,000, it is unlikely to prompt a change in policymakers’ stance. The unemployment rate is also projected to rise to 4.2%.
Markets may look for meaningful insights from today’s employment data, but they are unlikely to find anything substantial. Overall, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates again in December.
Forecasts for job growth range between 155,000 and 275,000, compared to just 12,000 new jobs in September. The unemployment rate for this month is anticipated at 4.2%, slightly up from 4.1% last month. Last month’s precise unemployment rate was reported at 4.145%, while the labor force participation rate stood at 62.6%.
In terms of wages, annual average hourly earnings growth is expected to slow to 3.9%, down from 4% last month. Monthly wage growth is forecasted at 0.3%, slightly below the previous month’s 0.4%. Average weekly working hours are expected to remain unchanged at 34.3 hours.
Key data released so far include:
• ADP Report: 146,000 jobs added compared to 150,000 in the previous month.
• ISM Services Employment Index: Declined to 51.5 from 53, still the second-highest figure of the year.
• ISM Manufacturing Employment Index: Rose to 48.1 from 44.4.
• Challenger Job Cuts: 57,727 compared to 55,597 in the previous month.
• Philadelphia Fed Employment Index: Increased to 8.6 from -2.2.
• Empire State Employment Index: Rose slightly to 0.9 from 4.1.
Recent trends suggest that the labor market is generally weakening, though temporary improvements are evident in some areas. JOLTS data paints a similar picture, with most Federal Reserve members convinced that the labor market is cooling. However, a single NFP report is unlikely to alter this broader trend, particularly given the influence of hurricanes, elections, and the end of Boeing’s strike on the numbers.
On the other hand, President-elect Donald Trump's pro-business policies and "America First" approach have pushed gold prices lower ahead of the new year. However, one Canadian bank believes that gold's upward trend is not over yet.
While markets may need time to adjust to Trump's economic policies, CIBC analysts remain bullish on gold's future in 2025. Investors should not be surprised by the gold market's current woes, the analysts said, as a similar trend was seen in 2016, during Trump's first term. The Bank of Canada has reiterated its summer forecasts and stated that Trump's impact on the gold market will ultimately be positive.
According to analysts, “It may take several seasons, but inflationary pressures will eventually show. Although this issue may challenge the trend of interest rate cuts, we believe that wealth preservation and the desire of non-US investors and central banks for safe assets will continue to support gold prices."
Peter Schiff, chief strategist at Euro Pacific Asset Management, believes that the price of gold will not return below $2,000 an ounce, and that the price of gold is likely to double or triple. He noted that gold fluctuated between $1,500 and $2,000 from 2011 to 2024 and has now reached higher levels without resistance.
Schiff emphasized at the New Orleans investment conference that the performance of gold this year shows the strength and high potential of this valuable metal. He also predicted that as the price of gold rises, more investors will be interested in stocks of mining companies.
Meanwhile, BlackRock emphasized in its recent report that the Federal Reserve does not appear to have entered a typical cycle of interest rate cuts. The analysis shows that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates further in 2025.
This reduction will occur in a situation where economic growth will slow down somewhat, but inflation will still remain above the target. Therefore, the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates below 4%, and rates will remain above pre-pandemic levels.
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