Gold Analysis and Trade Ideas - Wednesday June 7

8 de jun. de 2023

Gold Analysis - Wednesday June 7

MARKET SENTIMENT
- DXY is overall bullish on HTF. Correlated Bearish structure on Gold
- 67% chance of pause in rate hikes, but FED still opening the door to more hikes in the future
- Inflation still high. CPI still much higher than 2% target. FED saying it will still take a couple years to come down, meaning high rates for longer.
- Inflationary economic data (Strong Economy) will lead to markets pricing in higher rate hikes for longer (USD Bull, Gold Bear).
- Disinflationary Data (Weak Economy) will lead to markets pricing in rate cuts sooner than later (USD Bear, Gold Bull)

DATA IN FOCUS
- US Jobless Claims (Thursday, 8:30AM) will likely lead the sentiment for the day
- Last Week, NFP surprised to the upside in headline NFP numbers, unemployment rose to 3.7% but still much lower than FED's predictions of 4-5% Unemployment Rate.

PRICE ACTION
- Ranging on HTF between 1928 and 1983
- Fresh Rejections from HTF Supply (1983)
- Fresh 4H BOS (1956)
- Overall bears seem to be in control, however

Gold - HTF Trade Ideas

1. 4H BOS Retest (1956)
- Sell Entry: 1956
- SL: 1959.50 (35 pips)
- Target: 1940 (160 pips, 4.5 R)

2. 4H Supply Retest (1965)
- Sell Entry: 1965
- SL: 1967.50 (25 pips)
- Target: 1956 (90 pips, 3.6 R)

3. Daily Supply Retest (1978)
- Sell Entry: $1978
- SL: 1986 (80 pips)
- Target: 1940 (380 pips, 4.75 R)

4. Weekly BOS Retest (1928)
- Buy Entry: $1928
- SL: 1924.50 (35 pips)
- TP: 1956 (280 pips, 8.0 R)

5. 4H Demand
- WAIT for 1H structure to flip bullish