Analysis of gold trend on February 5

5 de fev.

On Wednesday (February 5) in the early Asian session, the spot gold price rose rapidly in the short term, reaching $2,862/ounce, setting a record high. The rally was mainly driven by risk aversion triggered by U.S. President Trump's tariff policy, which has significantly increased market demand for gold.

Market background:
Increased risk aversion demand: Trump's tariff policy has triggered global trade tensions, especially China's retaliatory tariff measures against the United States, which has further exacerbated market uncertainty. Investors have turned to safe-haven assets such as gold, pushing up gold prices.

The decline in the US dollar and US Treasury yields: US job vacancies in December hit the largest drop in 14 months, dragging down the US dollar and US Treasury yields, further providing momentum for gold prices to rise.

Impact of economic data: The market will focus on data such as the US ADP employment in January, the December trade account, the final value of the S&P Global Services PMI in January, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI in January. If these data perform poorly, it may further push up gold prices.

Fundamental analysis:
Although gold prices faced multiple negative pressures last week, such as the Fed meeting reiterated that inflation was high and the labor market was strong, gold prices did not fall back, but continued to strengthen. The main reasons include:

Expectations for interest rate cuts have weakened: Although Fed officials are cautious about interest rate cuts, the market still expects that interest rates may be cut in the future, which provides support for gold prices.

Inflation pressure: High inflation has not led to interest rate hikes, but has increased the commodity price of gold, further driving up gold prices.

Economic uncertainty: Economic concerns and potential trade conflicts brought about by Trump's policies have increased market uncertainty, pushed up inflation expectations, and further boosted gold's safe-haven demand.

Technical analysis:
Gold prices have now broken through the key resistance level of $2,853. If they can remain above this level, gold prices are expected to rise further, with the target pointing to the $3,000 mark. The overall market expectations are negative for gold prices, but if economic data performs poorly, gold prices may continue to rise.

Despite some negative factors, such as weakening expectations of interest rate cuts, high inflation and a strong labor market, these factors have not put substantial pressure on gold prices. On the contrary, market concerns about economic uncertainty and trade conflicts have driven the safe-haven demand for gold. Therefore, gold prices are expected to continue to rise in 2025 and hit the $3,000 mark.

Investors need to pay close attention to the upcoming US economic data, which will have an important impact on the short-term trend of gold prices.

Yesterday, gold fell slightly in volatile trading and stabilized at the 2807 mark, ushering in a strong bottoming out and rebounding to break the high continuously. The European session gold price further broke through the morning high of 2824 and continued to rise above 2830 to continue to rise strongly. The US session gold price accelerated to break through the 2845 line and fell back to close strongly. The daily K-line closed strongly and broke through the high-middle Yang. The overall gold price continued the extremely strong unilateral rise of the bulls relying on the support of the 5-day moving average.

The 4-hour chart shows a one-sided step channel rising. Combined with the middle track of the Bollinger Band as the critical point for bulls, this week's bulls are consolidating and correcting, and the space for stepping back is relatively limited. The previous retracement low of 2772 has been far away, and the second lowest point is at the starting position of 2806. The second lowest point coincides with the support position of the middle track at 2810, which is a short-term bull defense point. It is currently in a unilateral pull-up. Today's Asian session is expected to rise by inertia, and the European and American sessions will rise again after consolidation and correction. Today's lower support continues to focus on yesterday's hourly neckline near 2833. If it stabilizes at this position during the day, it can continue to be bullish. The upper short-term resistance focuses on the 2865 mark, and the short-term bullish strong dividing line focuses on the 2825-2830 line. If the daily level stabilizes above this position, continue to keep the low-level long rhythm unchanged.

Gold operation strategy:

1. If gold falls back to the 2825-2830 line, go long, and if it falls back to the 2810-2812 line, cover the position and go long. Stop loss at 2803, and target the 2848-2850 line; continue to hold if the position is broken!

5 de fev.

Trade ativo

On Wednesday (February 5), the price of gold traded around $2,873 in the U.S. market, continuing its recent strong upward momentum. Gold prices continued to attract a large amount of capital inflows on Tuesday and hit a record high of $2,882 on Wednesday, just one step away from the $2,900 mark. So far, spot gold has risen 1.11% to around $2,873, with a daily increase of $30.

Market drivers:
Trade situation and tariff policy:
Beijing has imposed tariffs on U.S. imports in response to the United States' new tariffs on Chinese goods. This move has exacerbated market concerns about the global trade situation and pushed gold prices to a record high.

U.S. President Trump suspended tariffs on Mexico and Canada last weekend, temporarily alleviating market concerns about the global trade situation, and the risk premium of the U.S. dollar began to fall. However, uncertainty in tariff policies remains, and the market's safe-haven demand for gold continues to increase.

Economic data and the trend of the U.S. dollar:

Global markets have increased their attention to economic data, especially the release of the U.S. Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). Europe has released the combined Eurozone, German, French and Spanish PMI data for January, and the results show that the final values ​​of these data are basically in line with or slightly lower than initial expectations.

In the United States, S&P Global is about to release its PMI data, and the ISM will also release PMI data specifically for the service industry. The market generally expects that these data may have a certain impact on the US dollar, especially against the backdrop of high global economic uncertainty.

The safe-haven demand for the US dollar has fallen:

Although the US dollar was once the first choice for safe-haven funds, the safe-haven properties of the US dollar have weakened in the short term with the temporary easing of Trump's tariff policy. The market turned to traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and the Swiss franc (CHF), further pushing up gold prices.

Warnings from Federal Reserve officials:

Three Federal Reserve officials warned that the Trump administration's tariff plan could bring inflation risks. Gold is seen as a hedge against inflation, and although it does not generate interest itself, its appeal has been further enhanced against the backdrop of rising inflation expectations.

Technical analysis:

4-hour chart analysis:
The short-term support below focuses on the 2850-2852 line, and the important support is at the 2842 line. The strategy of continuing to be long and bullish after the pullback remains unchanged.

The upper short-term resistance focuses on the vicinity of 2878-2880. The overall tone of going long after the pullback remains unchanged based on this range.

Gold operation strategy:
Go long when stepping back:

Gold will go long if it steps back on the 2850-2855 line, and it will cover the long position if it goes back on the 2840-2842 line. The stop loss is 2833, and the target is 2868-2870. Continue to hold after breaking the position.

Summary:
Gold prices continue to hit record highs driven by trade uncertainty, the decline in the safe-haven demand for the US dollar, and rising inflation expectations. Although the risk premium of the US dollar has fallen, the market's safe-haven demand for gold remains strong. Technically, gold prices are expected to continue to rise after the pullback to the key support level, and investors can rely on the key support level to carry out the operation strategy of going long after the pullback.

6 de fev.

Trade fechado: objetivo atingido

Gold market analysis and operation suggestions (February 6)

News analysis:
Risk aversion dominates the market
Trade frictions escalate: The Trump administration's move to impose tariffs on China and the European Union has triggered market concerns about global trade conflicts, and investors have flocked to safe-haven assets such as gold.

Geopolitical risks: Trump's proposal on Gaza has triggered global criticism, further exacerbating market uncertainty and driving the safe-haven demand for gold.

Weak US economic data
ISM service PMI performance is poor: The US ISM service PMI data for January was lower than expected, showing a slowdown in service industry activity, increasing market concerns about the US economic outlook.
U.S. Treasury yields plummeted: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell sharply, hitting a new low in nearly a month and a half, reflecting the market's pessimistic expectations for economic growth, further supporting gold prices.

Weak US dollar
The U.S. dollar index fell: Due to poor performance of US economic data, the U.S. dollar index continued its decline and fell to a one-week low. A weaker dollar is usually conducive to higher gold prices denominated in U.S. dollars.

Fed policy expectations
Fed officials' cautious attitude: Fed officials expressed concerns about the inflationary impact of tariff policies and hinted that further interest rate cuts may be possible in the future. This loose monetary policy expectation also supported gold prices.

Market focus
U.S. employment report: Investors look forward to Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls report for more clues about the state of the U.S. economy and the direction of the Fed's monetary policy. Bank of England interest rate decision: The Bank of England's policy decision may also have an impact on global market sentiment, which in turn affects gold prices.

Technical analysis
Trend line breakthrough
Gold prices broke through the key resistance level of $2,850 yesterday and turned into support, indicating that the bulls are strong and the bullish space is further opened. The market trend is expected to remain above the trend line after the breakthrough, and $2,850 will become a key support level.

Short-term correction
After rising for five consecutive trading days and setting a record high, gold prices pulled back during the day and traded at $2,850/ounce.
This pullback was mainly affected by the slight rebound of the US dollar and the improvement of market risk sentiment, but fundamental factors still provide support for gold, limiting its downside space.
Adjustment and trend
Gold began to fall back and adjust after being under pressure at $2,873 several times in the afternoon of the Asian session. The adjustment is reasonable, but it does not change the bullish trend of gold. After the adjustment is in place, gold is expected to continue to rise.

Operation suggestions:
Short-term resistance above: 2870-2875 US dollars

Short-term support below: 2835-2840 US dollars

Specific operation strategy:
Gold falls back to 2838-2840 and goes long, stop loss 2833, target 2878-2880; continue to hold if it breaks!

Gold rebounds to 2870-2875 and goes short, stop loss 2880, target 2840-2845.

Summary and Outlook
Short-term trend: Gold has a technical correction after continuous rise, but fundamental factors (such as trade frictions, weak economic data, and Fed policy expectations) still provide support for gold prices.
Key support and resistance: $2,850 has become a key support level, and it continues to be bullish above this level; if it falls below this level, it may face a certain adjustment space.
Market focus: Investors need to pay close attention to Friday's US non-farm payroll report, the Bank of England's interest rate decision, and the speeches of Fed officials, which will have an important impact on gold prices.