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GOLD is still looking for new peaks, PCE is the focus this week
Atualizado
At the end of the last trading week, XAUUSD increased above 2,620 USD/oz, continuing the existing upward momentum due to expectations that the US will continue to cut interest rates and increasing tensions in the Middle East.
On Wednesday (September 18) local time, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut after concluding a two-day policy meeting in Washington. , lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4.75%-5%. This is the first time the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates since March 2020.
Fed officials expect interest rates to fall to 4.4% by the end of 2024 and to 3.4% in 2025. In a statement, policymakers said they would consider “adjustments “addition” to interest rates based on “upcoming economic data.”
They also noted that inflation "remains high" and that job growth has slowed.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said in his post-FOMC press conference that the 50 basis point rate cut “is not a new pace of rate cuts.”
Next week, several Fed officials will speak and it is expected that these statements will have a short-term market impact.
• Next Monday, Bostic, the FOMC 2024 voting committee and Atlanta Fed President, will speak on the economic outlook.
• Next Tuesday, FOMC 2026 voting committee member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will give a speech.
• Next Thursday, Boston Fed President Collins will host a virtual meeting on central bank supervision and financial inclusion, and Fed Governor Coogler will attend.
• Next Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will broadcast a video to open an event.
• Next Thursday, the FOMC permanent voting committee and New York Fed President Williams will speak. Federal Reserve Governor Barr will speak next Thursday.
• Next Friday, FOMC 2026 voting committee and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will have a conversation with Federal Reserve Governor Barr Next Friday, FOMC 2025 voting committee, Boston Fed President Collins and Fed Governor Coogler spoke.
Next week's data focus will be on August's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation.
Next Friday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for August, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation.
If the core PCE price index rises 0.3% month-on-month or above expectations, that could boost the dollar and put pressure on gold. On the other hand, weak data could put immediate pressure on the USD and support gold prices to rise further.
Economic data to watch next week
Monday: S&P Flash PMI
Tuesday: US consumer confidence
Wednesday: New home sales in the United States
Thursday: Durable goods orders, third quarter GDP, weekly unemployment claims; US pending home sales
Friday: US PCE
![GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Sep 23 - Sep 27]](https://s3.tradingview.com/u/UyVvt5sf_mid.png)
Analysis of technical prospects forXAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold continues to find new all-time highs with conditions tilting towards the upside. From the long-term price channel and the EMA21 line, they point towards an increase in price.
Using Fibonacci extension to follow the trend, gold temporarily closes weekly below 0.618% and this is also the confluence point with the upper edge of the price channel. Once this level is broken, gold will tend to increase further towards the 2,645 USD area, the price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci extension.
The relative strength index RSI is pointing up with a large slope without showing signs of weakening from the overbought area, showing that there is still room for price growth ahead although not much.
However, in the current trading environment, strong corrections can still occur quickly with the levels of 2,610 - 2,600 - 2,595USD being the closest current supports.
Finally, gold's uptrend will be noticed again by the following technical levels.
Support: 2,610 – 2,600 – 2,595USD
Resistance: 2,631 – 2,645USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2646 - 2644⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2650
→Take Profit 1 2639
↨
→Take Profit 2 2634
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2586 - 2588⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2582
→Take Profit 1 2593
↨
→Take Profit 2 2598
XAUUSD increased above 2,620 USD/oz, continuing the existing upward momentum due to expectations that the US will continue to cut interest rates and increasing tensions in the Middle East.On Wednesday (September 18) local time, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut after concluding a two-day policy meeting in Washington. , lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4.75%-5%. This is the first time the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates since March 2020.
Fed officials expect interest rates to fall to 4.4% by the end of 2024 and to 3.4% in 2025. In a statement, policymakers said they would consider “adjustments “addition” to interest rates based on “upcoming economic data.”
They also noted that inflation "remains high" and that job growth has slowed.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said in his post-FOMC press conference that the 50 basis point rate cut “is not a new pace of rate cuts.”
Next week, several Fed officials will speak and it is expected that these statements will have a short-term market impact.
• Next Monday, Bostic, the FOMC 2024 voting committee and Atlanta Fed President, will speak on the economic outlook.
• Next Tuesday, FOMC 2026 voting committee member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will give a speech.
• Next Thursday, Boston Fed President Collins will host a virtual meeting on central bank supervision and financial inclusion, and Fed Governor Coogler will attend.
• Next Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will broadcast a video to open an event.
• Next Thursday, the FOMC permanent voting committee and New York Fed President Williams will speak. Federal Reserve Governor Barr will speak next Thursday.
• Next Friday, FOMC 2026 voting committee and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will have a conversation with Federal Reserve Governor Barr Next Friday, FOMC 2025 voting committee, Boston Fed President Collins and Fed Governor Coogler spoke.
Next week's data focus will be on August's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation.
Next Friday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for August, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation.
If the core PCE price index rises 0.3% month-on-month or above expectations, that could boost the dollar and put pressure on gold. On the other hand, weak data could put immediate pressure on the USD and support gold prices to rise further.
Economic data to watch next week
Monday: S&P Flash PMI
Tuesday: US consumer confidence
Wednesday: New home sales in the United States
Thursday: Durable goods orders, third quarter GDP, weekly unemployment claims; US pending home sales
Friday: US PCE
Analysis of technical prospects for
XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continues to find new all-time highs with conditions tilting towards the upside. From the long-term price channel and the EMA21 line, they point towards an increase in price.
Using Fibonacci extension to follow the trend, gold temporarily closes weekly below 0.618% and this is also the confluence point with the upper edge of the price channel. Once this level is broken, gold will tend to increase further towards the 2,645 USD area, the price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci extension.
The relative strength index RSI is pointing up with a large slope without showing signs of weakening from the overbought area, showing that there is still room for price growth ahead although not much.
However, in the current trading environment, strong corrections can still occur quickly with the levels of 2,610 - 2,600 - 2,595USD being the closest current supports.
Finally, gold's uptrend will be noticed again by the following technical levels.
Support: 2,610 – 2,600 – 2,595USD
Resistance: 2,631 – 2,645USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2646 - 2644⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2650
→Take Profit 1 2639
↨
→Take Profit 2 2634
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2586 - 2588⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2582
→Take Profit 1 2593
↨
→Take Profit 2 2598
Nota
On the daily chart, gold prices appear ready for a correction, as the 14-day RSI is in overbought territory, currently near 72. The nearest resistance for gold lies at $2,650, breaking out to At this level XAU/USD could then aim for the $2,700 threshold for the first time in history.Nota
The DXY index has fallen about 0.4% from its session high, currently trading around 100.80 after Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the Fed may need to cut interest rates further next year. The DXY index has retraced most of its gain during the session.Nota
Gold prices rose to an all-time high on Monday (September 23), thanks to optimistic market sentiment after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered interest rates last week combined with geopolitical tensions. value has boosted gold prices despite a stronger USD.Nota
Nota
The Fed's rate cut last week left many people wondering what this means for mortgage rates. Housing website Redfin notes that some potential homebuyers are unaware that mortgage rates have plummeted, while others are still waiting for the data to drop further.Trade ativo
Plan SELL Close 1/2 + 30pips. Move SL to Entry🔥Trade ativo
Plan SELL Running + 60pips💸Nota
Gold prices rose 1% to a record high on Tuesday, continuing recent gains as tensions in the Middle East boosted the safe-haven appeal, while investors eyed the latest trends. New signals about interest rate cuts in the US.Nota
- XAUUSD hits another record high, continuing its upward momentum and approaching the psychological resistance of $2,700/ounce.
- If XAUUSD continues to rise, the price could test the next psychological resistance level at 2,700 USD/ounce.
Nota
The dollar steadied during the European session on Wednesday after falling against most major Asian currencies, such as the Yuan (CNY) or Rupee (INR). The change comes after investors shifted from the United States to investing in Chinese stocks. The move was prompted by a major stimulus plan from the Chinese government rolled out on Tuesday.Nota
World gold prices showed a sluggish rise at the historic peak during the trading session on Wednesday (September 25), when some investors began to realize profits. However, the price of this precious metal continues to be supported by the possibility that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to sharply reduce interest rates in the next meeting.
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🧩Account management
🧩Forex signals have a high win rate
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