Buffet Indicator applied to todays market conditions

27 de dez. de 2022

The Buffet indicator uses overall US equities value compared to GDP as a simple metric. Applying this to previous bubbles there are several similarities indicating a potential recession and downward trend. Recently the Buffet indicator was rejected off of the QE bubble trend. Based on long term levels of fair market ratios in a NON QE environment, the indicator has lower to go. Fundamentals will be crucial over the next few quarters and will require continued growth and EPS to suit in murky market waters. With higher terminal rates, inverted yield curves, sticky inflation, and a consumer credit issue on the horizon (credit card debt is skyrocketing); it'll be a high risk game of chicken between Investors and the Fed all while watching the clock count down to the next quarter HOPING companies can outlast the inflation storm AND hope the fed pivots/reduces rates rather quickly.