VXX prediction for next pop.
Atualizado
Notice the pattern. Down-wedges followed by a pop. The angles of the wedges are all very similar. The pops are also similar with 2 pops to around $50 and last pop to $78 (due to covid) .
Various time/$ measurements are shown including:
1. Top ones (light blue): the range of the pops.
2. Bottom ones (blue and pink): The range of pop-end to beginning of next pop.
NOTE: The last cycle is not complete, so an overlapping blue and pink are shown corresponding to previous to see if they give any info. We are close to the blue on x-axis (time) so if a pop happens NOW, we would correlate cyclically. Would be great, but can only confirm with hindsight.
Brought out time cycle bubbles (green) to see if any more predictive patterns emerge. Not at very top of chart the arrow icons. These correspond to intersections of the SMA (smoothed moving average = orange line) and the ends of the green cycle time bubbles. The green arrows imply that they line up nicely. The orange arrows do not correlate to a big pop (but there was a "small" pop (50%, small not small!) hence i put orange instead of red).
Going to the last cycle which isn't complete, we place the question mark (purple) to see if the SMA will peak here. If we assume this pattern could be something, we would expect price action preceding the question mark to cause a dramatic rise in price to change the trajectory of SMA to form a peak. 1st and 3rd "pops" lasted about 30 days. The 2nd "pop" lasted about 90 days. The next cylce time (green bubble) ends 2/15, so we have roughly 100 days left.
SO.....this sucker should still pop (if these "patterns" mean anything. And it should be a good one (to create SMA peak). And it should be relatively "soon" (for position traders and some swing traders).
Caveats: This is not a great "stock" for day traders. This is not a great stock for position traders either, as there is a natural decay and this is a loser if held for too long. The is probably best as a swing trade and a hedge against market with plan to hold on until there is an exit or around 100 days. (by then election drama and hopefully covid drama will have also dissipated and hence if nothing happens by then it would make sense to abandon this play and cut losses.
If anyone has any insight as to a new bottom for this latest cycle please do share. Considering some price averaging, but i'm a bit gun shy now watching this one slip......
Various time/$ measurements are shown including:
1. Top ones (light blue): the range of the pops.
2. Bottom ones (blue and pink): The range of pop-end to beginning of next pop.
NOTE: The last cycle is not complete, so an overlapping blue and pink are shown corresponding to previous to see if they give any info. We are close to the blue on x-axis (time) so if a pop happens NOW, we would correlate cyclically. Would be great, but can only confirm with hindsight.
Brought out time cycle bubbles (green) to see if any more predictive patterns emerge. Not at very top of chart the arrow icons. These correspond to intersections of the SMA (smoothed moving average = orange line) and the ends of the green cycle time bubbles. The green arrows imply that they line up nicely. The orange arrows do not correlate to a big pop (but there was a "small" pop (50%, small not small!) hence i put orange instead of red).
Going to the last cycle which isn't complete, we place the question mark (purple) to see if the SMA will peak here. If we assume this pattern could be something, we would expect price action preceding the question mark to cause a dramatic rise in price to change the trajectory of SMA to form a peak. 1st and 3rd "pops" lasted about 30 days. The 2nd "pop" lasted about 90 days. The next cylce time (green bubble) ends 2/15, so we have roughly 100 days left.
SO.....this sucker should still pop (if these "patterns" mean anything. And it should be a good one (to create SMA peak). And it should be relatively "soon" (for position traders and some swing traders).
Caveats: This is not a great "stock" for day traders. This is not a great stock for position traders either, as there is a natural decay and this is a loser if held for too long. The is probably best as a swing trade and a hedge against market with plan to hold on until there is an exit or around 100 days. (by then election drama and hopefully covid drama will have also dissipated and hence if nothing happens by then it would make sense to abandon this play and cut losses.
If anyone has any insight as to a new bottom for this latest cycle please do share. Considering some price averaging, but i'm a bit gun shy now watching this one slip......
Nota
Up 17% today. Coincidence? I think not ;-)
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