Part 3. Three days ago I published Parts 1 and 2 for the-S&P and-IWM. (2,500 stocks total). I wanted to share with you the emerging markets. In my opinion they are weak, trend-less with a downward bias, and the risk/ reward ratio is to the down side. VWO-is an ETF consisting of shares in the following countries: China 23.23% Taiwan, Province of China 15.35% India 12.12% Brazil 8.57% South Africa 7.42% Hong Kong 5.80% Mexico 4.46% Malaysia 3.92% Russian Federation 3.91% Thailand 2.99% Kind of looks like the-S&P-500, doesn't it? This is an extremely difficult market in which you will find winning stocks . You have to be very good to select the end of the draw-down periods and go long in the winners. The rotation into and out of stock groups has been fast and furious. As for-VWO: Let's put it this way, your upside gain is 1% to 2%, down-side 10%-15% +. This is not a good risk/ reward ratio. Here are eleven negatives I see in-VWO, and why I feel this is a sell: 1. Sell Fractal in effect. 2. Alligator jaws NOW OPENING in tandem with sell Fractals. Alligator feeding in new down-trend. THIS IS YOUR DIRECTIONAL COMPASS. 3. Chop indicator (under chart) is ENTERING the shaded area. 4. Forward Ichimoku leading span (lower top indicator) is below the zero line. ** 5. 34 day moving average (top indicator)-is bearish . 6. Prices are trading into the Ichimoku Cloud . This is a sell signal. 8. Prices are trading below the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud . This is a sell signal. 9. Prices are trading below the thick red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line. This is a sell signal. 10. The Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud direction is heading lower. This is a sell signal. 11. The CHOP ZONE indicator (under chart) is red, indicating a down trend.
** The lower top indicator is a forward projection as follows: For an estimation of possible FORWARD TRENDING I use the Ichimoku Cloud Senkou Span A (Leading Span A): (Conversion Line + Base Line)/2)). This is the midpoint between the Conversion Line and the Base Line. The Leading Span A forms one of the two Cloud boundaries. It is referred to as "Leading" because it is plotted 26 periods in the future and forms the faster Cloud boundary. I then make an oscillator out of this and plot the progress up and down around a “zero line”. I HAVE THE RESULTS OF THESE CALCULATIONS FOR-VWO IN THE TOP LOWER INDICATOR. IT IS VERY NEGATIVE.
I see very soft markets in the United States, Europe, and, emerging markets around the world. My advice: because of severe rotation, it's hard to follow trend. I recommend long positions only after draw-downs to support levels. If you do not do this you increase your chances of a loss. I hope this has been helpful. May all of your trades go well. Don.
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As informações e publicações não devem ser e não constituem conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, de negociação ou de qualquer outro tipo, fornecidas ou endossadas pela TradingView. Leia mais em Termos de uso.