Crude Oil Price Trends: Market Drivers and Further Outlook

WTI and Brent Crude: Recent Price Movements
Oil prices faced renewed volatility last week as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled at $72.84 per barrel, down $2.13 from the previous week, while Brent crude (UKOIL) closed at $77.11 per barrel, reflecting a $1.03 decline over the same period. The price drop follows a mix of macroeconomic concerns, shifts in global supply, and changes in refinery demand, raising questions about the short-term direction of the oil market.

Geopolitical Risks and Supply Disruptions
Oil markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical events. Rising tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding Russia’s oil exports continue to shape price expectations. In particular, shipping disruptions in the Red Sea due to recent attacks on vessels have increased transport costs and contributed to supply chain volatility. Additionally, ongoing sanctions on Russian crude are prompting shifts in global trade flows, with some Asian countries increasing purchases while Europe diversifies its energy imports.

Macroeconomic Factors and Demand Outlook
On the macroeconomic front, concerns over U.S. Federal Reserve policy and potential interest rate hikes have weighed on oil prices. A stronger U.S. dollar typically exerts downward pressure on crude oil, making it more expensive for foreign buyers. However, resilient U.S. employment data and steady industrial activity have supported fuel demand, mitigating some of the downward pressure. China's economic recovery also plays a crucial role, with stronger-than-expected factory output and increased crude imports providing support for oil prices.

New York Petroleum Product Prices: Gasoline and Diesel Trends
The New York Harbor spot price (HO1!) for conventional gasoline fell to $2.382 per gallon, marking a $0.023 decrease from last week. Meanwhile, No. 2 heating oil prices dropped by $0.083, settling at $2.371 per gallon, which is $0.213 lower than a year ago. Despite these declines, demand for diesel and heating oil remains strong, particularly in colder regions, supporting refined product prices.

Market Outlook: Where Are Oil Prices Headed?
Looking ahead, oil price trends will depend on several factors, including OPEC+ production policy, U.S. refinery utilization rates, and global economic growth. If U.S. crude inventories continue to rise, prices could face further downward pressure. However, if geopolitical risks escalate or demand in Asia strengthens, oil prices may find support in the coming weeks. Investors and traders should closely monitor supply chain developments and central bank policies, as these will be key drivers of price movements in the near term.