Turning Point?

It might be bit early to call the end of bullish rally since late December 2018. But we could certainly have a count that shows wave (C) of {B} has reached it's peak.

Comentário:

But the above count does not necessarily mean the start of the multi months bear market, here is an alternative count

Comentário:

possible Long-term wave count

Comentário:

Divergence between RSI & Price, but price is still trading above the blue up trend line

Comentário:

short-term count

Comentário:

any push above 64.72 would argue either wave 4 or wave 5 is under way

Comentário:

Comentário:

break below the blue wave {i} low at 60.04 would indicate wave {iii} decline is under way

Comentário:

there are two possible bearish counts: either 1-2 or 1-2 plus {i}-{ii}

Comentário:

Comentário:

The '1-2' scenario also has two possible counts
flat {b} of 2

triangle {b} of 2

Comentário:

break below 62.09 ( end of wave (i) of {c} of 2) would indicate blue wave {c} is done

Comentário:

The '1-2 plus {i}-{ii}' scenario

Comentário:

Comentário:

also notice that price has failed number of times to climb back above the uptrend line

Comentário:

Therefore I think it's less likely to see another wave 5 of (C). A solid close below $60.02 (6 May low) would confirm the above bearish counts.

Comentário:

is wave 3 ready to explode?

Comentário:

Short-term count

Comentário:

daily chart

Comentário:

we could also assume the 1-2 is one degree higher and count the structure as follows

Comentário:

Comentário:

possible short-term counts:
either

or

Comentário:

Comentário:

alternative count

Comentário:

Comentário:

wave {iv} under way?

Comentário:

Comentário:

wave (iv) could be a triangle

Comentário:

Comentário:

possible short-term counts:
wave 3 done ( or if 1-2 = (1)-(2), then 3 = 1 of (3) )

Comentário:

or wave (i)-(ii) of {v}

Comentário:

immediate break above end of wave {iv} at $53.36 would eliminate the above (i)-(ii) scenario

Comentário:

Comentário:

wave 4 or wave 2 of (3)

Comentário:

Comentário:

triangle

or flat?

Comentário:

triangle

or flat

Comentário:

Comentário:

{a}-{b}-{c} flat with a diagonal wave {c}?

Comentário:

Comentário:

or an impulse wave {c}

Comentário:

Comentário:

possible short-term count

Comentário:

possible short-term count

Comentário:

either way

Comentário:

Comentário:

let's see if guppy ema could trigger the bearish signal

Comentário:

a solid close below wave (iv) low at $57.73 would also argue wave 2 has reached it's peak

Comentário:

Comentário:

break below wave {a}(of 2) high at $54.80 would confirm the above bearish count

Comentário:

possible short-term count

Comentário:

key resistance at $58.32 as wave iv should not breach the end of wave i

Comentário:

possible short-term counts

or

Comentário:

note the rally from recent low at 56.03 is contained within a parallel channel

Comentário:

triple zigzag?

Comentário:

Comentário:

Need to see an impulsive decline to break below the end of wave x at 57.30

Comentário:

Comentário:

alternative count

Comentário:

possible short-term count

Comentário:

possible short-term count

Comentário:

Comentário:

either pink A-B-C complete (Y) or grey (1)-(2) then {i}-{ii}

Comentário:

Comentário:

Note on 11 July, i assumed the following two scenarios:
Bullish A-B-C for wave (Y)

Bearish (1)-(2)

Comentário:

the bullish count is no longer valid, simply because wave B of a zigzag can never move beyond the start of wave A

Comentário:

Comentário:

possible short term counts

Comentário:

bearish green {i}-{ii}-(i)-(ii)
OR
bullish grey A-B-C flat for wave (2)

Comentário:

Comentário:

Comentário:

Comentário:

no change

Comentário:

Complex flat for wave (2)

Simple flat for wave (2)

Comentário:

OR even a more complex correction for wave (2) , e.g. double three combination where wave Y is a triangle

Comentário:

Flat

or Combination

Comentário:

there are some bullish possibilities

or

Comentário:

medium term expectations

OR