Oil retreats, but still rangebound

26 de fev.

For most of last week, crude appeared to be consolidating below a prior area of resistance. The question seemed to be when oil prices would build up enough momentum to achieve escape velocity and break above the key levels of $80 and $85 for front-month WTI and Brent respectively. But this bullish scenario fell apart on Friday when oil prices fell sharply. They have continued to fall again this morning, despite some dollar weakness. Some analysts blamed Friday’s fall on the change in expectations over rate cuts this year, that is that the Fed and others will delay their first cut until June, rather than next month. The argument being that ‘higher for longer’ interest rates could affect demand growth. Maybe – it’s certainly all part of the mix, even though investors have been absorbing these changes for a while now. But it’s just as likely that without a catalyst, the path of least resistance for oil prices was down, rather than up. For now, crude continues to be rangebound, while trading nearer to support than resistance.